About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. April Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. 2018-19 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2017-2018
Corn 2,013 1,940-2,211 1,835 2,140
Soybeans 913 847-1,062 900 438
Wheat 1,076 1,045-1,103 1,055 1099
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,035 910 1,065
Allendale 2,055 904 1,074
Citizens Elevator 1,940 925 1,060
DC Analysis 2,010 900 1,080
Doane 2,000 865 1,095
EDFMan Capital 1,950 900 1,080
Farm Futures 2,009 904 1,045
Hueber Report 1,950 885 1,059
INTL FCStone 2,211 1,062 1,103
North Star 1,965 900 1,070
Sid Love Consulting 1,985 920 1,075
Price Group 2,035 887 1,097
Prime Ag 1,985 900 1,075
RJ O’Brien 2,110 965 1,090
RMC 1,985 905 1,055
US Commodities 2,020 847 1,095
Vantage RM 1,995 865 1,085
Western Milling 1,985 964 1,078
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,015 930 1,070

DJ April World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World 2018-19 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA March USDA 2017-18
Corn 312.4 308.9-315.1 308.5 341.2
Soybeans 108.4 106.5-114.6 107.2 98.6
Wheat 271.1 268.5-274.2 270.5 279.6
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 315.0 108.0 271.5
Allendale 312.5 106.9 274.2
Citizens Elevator 310.0 108.0 272.0
Doane 309.5 108.0 271.0
EDFMan Capital 312.0 107.0 271.0
Farm Futures 310.0 108.0 269.8
Hueber Report 312.5 106.5 270.5
INTL FCStone 315.1 114.6 268.5
Northstar 311.0 108.0 271.0
Prime-Ag 314.0 108.0 271.0
RMC 308.9 107.3 270.5
US Commodities 314.5 108.7 271.0
Western Milling 314.0 108.0 272.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 314.9 110.4 271.7

DJ April Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Tuesday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2017-18
Corn 94.7 94.4-95.0 94.5 82.0
Soybeans 116.1 115.0-117.0 116.5 120.8
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 94.5 115.5
Allendale 94.5 115.5
Citizens Elevator 95.0 117.0
DC Analysis 94.5 116.5
Doane 94.5 116.0
EDF Man Capital 94.5 116.5
Farm Futures 95.0 115.0
Hueber Report 94.5 115.5
INTL FCStone 94.4 115.7
North Star 95.0 116.5
Price Group 94.5 115.0
Prime Ag 95.0 116.5
RMC 94.5 116.5
US Commodities 95.0 116.5
Western Milling 95.0 116.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 95.0 117.0

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 8
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 04, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/04/2019 03/28/2019 04/05/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 1,200 0 9,010 21,071
CORN 1,035,423 1,259,267 1,940,094 30,714,750 26,509,043
FLAXSEED 24 0 0 390 4,745
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 399 2,093 12,579
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 16,636 58,354 247,369 1,052,926 4,169,788
SOYBEANS 888,160 731,590 381,191 30,187,372 41,905,536
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 538,808 454,287 431,876 19,389,025 20,357,155
Total 2,479,051 2,504,698 3,000,929 81,355,566 92,979,941
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 7-Apr 31-Mar 2018 Avg
Cotton Planted 6 4 7 5
Corn Planted 2 2
Sorghum Planted 14 13 16 14
Rice Planted 19 12 20 21
Rice Emerged 7 2 10 8
Sugar beets Planted 3 1 3
Oats Planted 27 25 27 32
Oats Emerged 25 25 25 26
Winter Wheat Headed 3 3 4
Spring Wheat Planted 1 2 5
Barley Planted 2 3 9

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 2 7 31 48 12
Winter Wheat Last Week 2 7 35 45 11
Winter Wheat Last Year 14 21 35 26 4

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were mixed to lower yesterday as the trade prepared for the monthly supply and demand updates from USDA today. An increase in ending stocks is expected in reaction to the higher than expected stocks in the quarterly data released at the end of last month. Winter Wheat prices are already low and producers who also run cattle in the Great Plains are reported to be grazing Wheat area instead of growing it for grain. Wheat export sales have been improved over the last month for the US as competing countries such as Russia run low on supplies and prices in general increase in world markets. It seems difficult to be very bearish at current prices in the Chicago markets. Minneapolis prices could move below $5.00 per bushel for a short time if the planted area in Canada does increase dramatically. A big storm later this week could bring up to two feet of snow for some parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Minnesota and any fieldwork will be delayed.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains on Wednesday and this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see light showers today and Thursday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions this week and light precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 462, 456, and 453 May, with resistance at 471, 478, and 480 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 427, 423, and 418 May, with resistance at 443, 447, and 451 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 494 May. Support is at 521, 518, and 515 May, and resistance is at 530, 540, and 544 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on speculative selling. Speculators were selling in front of the monthly supply and demand reports that will be released later this morning. Demand remains generally good. Export sales have held together well,. Domestic demand is about average as mills continue to buy. Reports indicate that they are moving now for full coverage until the next harvest. Weather conditions have improved in Texas and near the Gulf Coast and planting and initial growth are reported. The big rains earlier in the Spring made for good soil conditions for planting, but some areas are already turning dry. Some producers have had to flush the crops to get them germinated and growing. Planting and field preparation are being reported into Arkansas now as the weather has improved. USDA showed a reduced pace to the planting progress. Some storms moved through almost all of the growing areas over the weekend and field work will be halted for at least a few days now.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains on Thursday and again about Saturday. Temperatures should near to below normal.
Chart Analysis Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1034, 1022, and 1016 May, with resistance at 1058, 1064, and 1070 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower yesterday and remains in a trading range overall. The USDA quarterly stocks reports and prospective plantings reports and the bearish implications on supplies from both reports continued to overhang the markets as the increased supplies are expected to be shown in the monthly supply and demand updates that will be released later today. The actual supply of Corn and feed grains in general might be a little less than indicated in the reports as a result of the massive flooding seen in the western Midwest and Great Plains this Spring. The floods inundated many silos and elevators holding a lot of Corn among other grains and oilseeds. There are still no overall loss estimates, but the losses could be rather significant. The weather in the Midwest this Spring has been cold and wet and there has been little, if any, fieldwork down. This could become a problem as there was very little fieldwork done last Fall. Farmers need all the time they can get to prepare the land for planting this year and so far they are not getting much time at all. They will need to deal with a major Winter storm that could move through Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota later this week. The storm could bring some rains and snow to Chicago and into Wisconsin by the end of the week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 360, 356, and 354 May, and resistance is at 365, 367, and 370 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 284, 280, and 279 May, and resistance is at 291, 294, and 295 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower, but Soybean Meal was higher. Traders were getting ready for the monthly supply and demand updates that will be released later today. No major changes in the data are expected.. The latest round of bilateral meeting between the US and China concluded last week, and an agreement is still at least a month away. However, both sides appear satisfied with the progress on the talks and plan video conference calls to push forward on the agreement in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Brazil harvest is at least 75% complete, and export competition from that country and Argentina is increasing. There are still bit supplies in the US as well, so the world will have plenty of offer to choose from. That makes it hard to look for major rallies in futures anytime soon unless the US weather remains bad. It has been wet and cool in the Midwest so far this Spring, and any fieldwork has been next to impossible to do. For now, that implies that some projected Corn area could get planted to Soybeans, but it is also very possible that some ground will be allowed to go fallow this year, especially in the flooded areas where more work will be need to bring soils into condition for production. A major Winter storm could move through Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota later this week. The storm could bring some rains and snow to Chicago and into Wisconsin by the end of the week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 892, 883, and 882 May, and resistance is at 908, 913, and 924 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 301.00 May, and resistance is at 312.00, 314.00, and 316.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2960 May. Support is at 2880, 2860, and 2840 May, with resistance at 2920, 2940, and 2950 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower as traders there prepared for the US data to be released later today. Traders are worried about demand and hope that the Canadian government finds a way to cut a deal to get Canola sales and shipments to China flowing again. New crop months were a little higher on ideas that the current low prices could cause producers to look for other crops to plant instead of Canola this year. Canola traders are still worried about big supplies in the Prairies and the lack of demand from China and expect stocks data to show higher supplies in the coming months. Palm Oil was a little higher on hopes for new demand. Demand could remain strong as prices are cheaper on a relative basis to Soybean Oil. Short term trends remain are still turning up, but futures are pushing hard against support areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 449.00, and 446.00 March, with resistance at 462.00, 467.00, and 469.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2280 June. Support is at 2180, 2150, and 2120 May, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2270 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Significant precipitation is likely later this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April +52 May +162 May +83 May +21 May +3 May
May +51 May +83 May +32 July
June +46 July +63 July +26 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
April
May +34 May -20 May
June -22 July +52 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 8
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 448.40 -9.00 May 2019 dn 0.60
Track Thunder Bay 466.50 12.00 May 2019 dn 2.90
Track Vancouver 484.50 30.00 May 2019 dn 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 547.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 560.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 567.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May 557.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 565.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 572.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 522.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 472.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,100 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 148 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0925)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 143,132 lots, or 4.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,330 3,340 3,314 3,334 3,339 3,324 -15 109,024 144,792
Jul-19 3,379 3,380 3,354 3,380 3,403 3,371 -32 6 266
Sep-19 3,427 3,431 3,412 3,426 3,430 3,420 -10 32,160 75,614
Nov-19 – – – 3,420 3,420 3,420 0 0 38
Jan-20 3,409 3,411 3,393 3,406 3,404 3,400 -4 1,940 32,170
Mar-20 3,410 3,410 3,410 3,410 3,411 3,410 -1 2 12
Corn
Turnover: 1,161,814 lots, or 21.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,838 1,842 1,827 1,833 1,844 1,833 -11 152,054 654,466
Jul-19 1,862 1,868 1,845 1,857 1,867 1,857 -10 65,080 266,310
Sep-19 1,880 1,886 1,860 1,867 1,882 1,870 -12 893,702 1,165,098
Nov-19 1,904 1,909 1,887 1,891 1,908 1,896 -12 174 1,676
Jan-20 1,930 1,933 1,911 1,917 1,934 1,920 -14 50,290 172,962
Mar-20 1,937 1,942 1,923 1,925 1,940 1,930 -10 514 446
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,813,854 lots, or 47.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,543 2,543 2,519 2,531 2,545 2,530 -15 343,156 720,976
Jul-19 2,574 2,576 2,551 2,562 2,576 2,566 -10 50,376 197,942
Aug-19 2,624 2,626 2,598 2,607 2,636 2,608 -28 650 1,014
Sep-19 2,636 2,645 2,612 2,621 2,645 2,625 -20 1,385,814 1,830,150
Nov-19 2,667 2,669 2,637 2,644 2,669 2,649 -20 246 3,472
Dec-19 2,691 2,691 2,682 2,691 2,710 2,688 -22 8 216
Jan-20 2,707 2,714 2,685 2,696 2,713 2,697 -16 33,564 124,706
Mar-20 2,701 2,702 2,685 2,693 2,709 2,691 -18 40 440
Palm Oil
Turnover: 501,118 lots, or 23.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-19 – – – 4,330 4,330 4,330 0 0 0
May-19 4,452 4,526 4,440 4,520 4,476 4,482 6 260,584 297,654
Jun-19 – – – 4,614 4,608 4,614 6 0 36
Jul-19 4,724 4,776 4,722 4,774 4,798 4,754 -44 12 46
Aug-19 – – – 4,640 4,682 4,640 -42 0 2
Sep-19 4,696 4,760 4,692 4,754 4,722 4,726 4 231,264 331,080
Oct-19 – – – 4,744 4,740 4,744 4 0 6
Nov-19 – – – 4,844 4,840 4,844 4 0 16
Dec-19 – – – 4,882 4,878 4,882 4 0 20
Jan-20 4,770 4,812 4,756 4,800 4,784 4,792 8 9,258 57,520
Feb-20 – – – 4,918 4,910 4,918 8 0 2
Mar-20 – – – 4,808 4,808 4,808 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 456,042 lots, or 25.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,440 5,474 5,414 5,466 5,450 5,442 -8 102,948 334,366
Jul-19 – – – 5,512 5,512 5,512 0 0 12
Aug-19 5,668 5,668 5,610 5,610 5,670 5,638 -32 4 34
Sep-19 5,602 5,644 5,574 5,632 5,608 5,606 -2 349,486 574,854
Nov-19 – – – 5,656 5,658 5,656 -2 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,808 5,808 5,808 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,718 5,758 5,694 5,748 5,724 5,722 -2 3,604 49,500
Mar-20 – – – 5,900 5,900 5,900 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322