William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
Back to square one – as Trump said a trade resolution is 3-4 weeks away! This was real letdown for a mkt that was realistically expecting a firm announcement this week. However, it can be considered a GOOD NEWS/BAD NEWS scenario – the bad being no deal now & the good being progress is being made – and indeed the mkt closed up 14 for the wk!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 730,000 MT (500-900) & Thur sales were a whopping 1.99 MT (800-1,500) On Mon – 828,000 MT to China
- UPCOMING USDA APRIL REPORT ON TUESDAY 4/9
Exp US Stocks – .898 (.845-.935)
World Stocks – 108.04 (106.2 – 111.1)
Argentina – 55.36 (54.5 – 56.0)
Brazil 116.19 (115-117)
- THE ELUSIVE TRADE DEAL- nobody says it would be easy and indeed it’s been a long drawn-out slog with many fits and starts! But both countries need it economically & Trump needs it politically – So we feel eventually it will get done
- CLOSING THE US/MEXICO BORDER? Was an idea Trump threatened this week as part of his ongoing immigration campaign but fortunately “cooler, more rational heads” prevailed – and instead he’s given Mexico a year to address its border issues before he moves – common sense would suggest that the very last thing we need is another trade war!
- A COLD WET SPRING – will eventually impact planting -as we approach Mid-April, we’ll see how much.
- A LOW WATER MARK – the lows scored last Friday after the USDA issued its “bearish shocker” have held so far – re-enforcing ideas that the acreage #’s were on the high side – given the cold, very wet Spring we’ve had.
The 20 cent rally this week was very good to see – especially following the very bearish report a week ago today! And also the fact that the postponement of the Trade deal didn’t strip away all the weekly gains (still at 14 cents) seems to support the notion that the seasonal lows are in!
Many were very skeptical of the Planting Intentions report issued last Friday which predicted 3.5 more million acres than last year – especially in light of the historic flooding we witnessed already this Spring! REALLY? Certainly, there will be some planting delays off of that! So this week’s dime rally off the lows made sense! Even without a done Deal between US & China!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,259,000 (700-1,000) & Thur Sales were 630,000 (700-1,1000)
- USDA REPORT ON TUES 4/9- US Stocks – 1.991 (1.870-2.135)
World 311 (307-314)
Argentina 46.44 (46-47)
Brazil 94.93 (94.5-95.5)
- MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS STILL IN PLAY – US/China will get done sooner or later & Trump will NOT be closing the US/Mexican border
- BIG SHORT OPEN INTEREST-has been whittled down a bit but is still quite substantial
- PLANTING DELAYS! As we approach Mid-April & a forecast of more cold & wet weather next week, we have to think some corn acres will go to beans
We feel the acreage estimate by the USDA on Friday 3/29/19 will easily be the high-ball number of the season & that some kind of “weather premium” will soon be built in!
The May Wht contract has not challenged the seasonal lows scored on Mar 11 at 427 – despite a negative USDA PLTG & STOCKS Report on Friday 4/29 & better than expected crop ratings this week at 56% good-to-excellent! Even the general disappointment today over the postponement of a trade deal – didn’t deter the mkt as it closed the week with a 10 cent gain! This bodes well for the mkt – going forward – as an imminent trade deal should help exports & the massive flooding may cut yields in WW & impede pltg in SW!
The technical picture definitely suggests a top but the mkt may have a hard time Going down – given the “raging bull” that is the hog complex. For instance, last week, June Cat rallied $1.50 (119-120.50) while June Hogs surged $10 (88-98)! So despite the big 1st to 2nd Qtr production increase in poundage & the lack of a bullish weather input as winter Fades away, The spill-over from a very bullish pork complex will underpin the mkt!
Well, a picture is certainly worth a 1000 words – so just look at that chart! How often do you see a mkt go up three times as fast as it went down! Since early March, June Hog’s ascent as been nearly vertical – and when it finally did correct, the correction was very short-lived. Last week, the contract gained $10 -even as rumors swirled that the US/Mexican border might be shut down! The major catalysts have been the imminent settling of the US/China trade dispute & the brutal damage that ASF has inflicted on China – as it has decimated more than 30% of their hog herds!! Both portend massive exports!
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