About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. April Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. 2018-19 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2017-2018
Corn 2,013 1,940-2,211 1,835 2,140
Soybeans 913 847-1,062 900 438
Wheat 1,076 1,045-1,103 1,055 1099
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,035 910 1,065
Allendale 2,055 904 1,074
Citizens Elevator 1,940 925 1,060
DC Analysis 2,010 900 1,080
Doane 2,000 865 1,095
EDFMan Capital 1,950 900 1,080
Farm Futures 2,009 904 1,045
Hueber Report 1,950 885 1,059
INTL FCStone 2,211 1,062 1,103
North Star 1,965 900 1,070
Sid Love Consulting 1,985 920 1,075
Price Group 2,035 887 1,097
Prime Ag 1,985 900 1,075
RJ O’Brien 2,110 965 1,090
RMC 1,985 905 1,055
US Commodities 2,020 847 1,095
Vantage RM 1,995 865 1,085
Western Milling 1,985 964 1,078
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,015 930 1,070

DJ April World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World 2018-19 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA March USDA 2017-18
Corn 312.4 308.9-315.1 308.5 341.2
Soybeans 108.4 106.5-114.6 107.2 98.6
Wheat 271.1 268.5-274.2 270.5 279.6
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 315.0 108.0 271.5
Allendale 312.5 106.9 274.2
Citizens Elevator 310.0 108.0 272.0
Doane 309.5 108.0 271.0
EDFMan Capital 312.0 107.0 271.0
Farm Futures 310.0 108.0 269.8
Hueber Report 312.5 106.5 270.5
INTL FCStone 315.1 114.6 268.5
Northstar 311.0 108.0 271.0
Prime-Ag 314.0 108.0 271.0
RMC 308.9 107.3 270.5
US Commodities 314.5 108.7 271.0
Western Milling 314.0 108.0 272.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 314.9 110.4 271.7

DJ April Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Tuesday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2017-18
Corn 94.7 94.4-95.0 94.5 82.0
Soybeans 116.1 115.0-117.0 116.5 120.8
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 94.5 115.5
Allendale 94.5 115.5
Citizens Elevator 95.0 117.0
DC Analysis 94.5 116.5
Doane 94.5 116.0
EDF Man Capital 94.5 116.5
Farm Futures 95.0 115.0
Hueber Report 94.5 115.5
INTL FCStone 94.4 115.7
North Star 95.0 116.5
Price Group 94.5 115.0
Prime Ag 95.0 116.5
RMC 94.5 116.5
US Commodities 95.0 116.5
Western Milling 95.0 116.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 95.0 117.0

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower most of the day but recovered to close with small gains. Strong export sales in the weekly reports gave some support to both Winter Wheat market prices in Chicago. Minneapolis was lower. Minneapolis is under pressure as Canola demand from China remains threatened. Less Canola demand might mean more Spring Wheat planted in the Canadian Prairies. There are reports that Winter Wheat producers in the US Great Plains will continue to use the Wheat as pasture instead of trying to farm for cash grain. That talk implies a smaller percentage of harvested area against planted area this year and less production of grain for the market. USDA reported that crops are in better condition than last year, but overall crop condition is far from universally good. It should find mixed conditions in the weekly updates on Monday. The crop condition this year has been uneven due to difficult planting conditions last Fall and bouts of extreme cold in the Midwest and Great Plains over the Winter. There is plenty of moisture around to help yield potential now, but too much rain will hurt protein levels down the road.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains on Wednesday and this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see light showers today and Thursday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions this week and light precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 465, 456, and 453 May, with resistance at 475, 478, and 480 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 427, 418, and 415 May, with resistance at 442, 447, and 451 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 526, 524, and 494 May. Support is at 530, 527, and 524 May, and resistance is at 544, 548, and 553 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on ideas of reduced demand. The export sales report showed net cancellations, but this had been expected as the report last week had shown unusually large sales to Mexico that no one had believed. Planting conditions should deteriorate this weekend near the Gulf Coast and in the Delta due to rains and cooler weather in the forecast. Most areas in Texas and Louisiana have been planted or are getting planted now, and USDA said that planting and emergence was about average for the date. It remains colder and wetter to the north, and reports indicate that fieldwork is just beginning in northern areas. Some planting has been reported as far north and Northeast Arkansas. The growing weather and demand are the important items to watch now.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather, but showers are possible later this week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1045, 1043, and 1034 May, with resistance at 1070, 1078, and 1080 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher despite less than expected export sales. Oats were higher in nearby contracts amid talk of a squeeze and very limited supplies available to the market from the US r Canada. Corn futures prices are still treading water. The outlook is still neutral to bearish given the higher than expected supplies, but weather and demand will become more important very soon. Actual supplies now should be less due to reported losses from flooding in the western Corn Belt this year. How much is lost is not yet known, but it could be a lot as some still talk of 100 million bushels or more of all grains lost in the flooding. President Trump threatened to close the border with Mexico, then said nothing would happen on the border for another year. This was a big relief to the US agricultural community as Mexico is the biggest and best customer of US ag products. China is rumored to be interested in buying a lot more US Corn, in part as a goodwill gesture during the trade talks, and in part to improve supplies in the domestic market. No new Corn business has been confirmed yet from USDA. The intended Corn planted area this year was considered too high given prices and relative costs of production. The surveys were made before the rains and floods, so the actual area should be adjusted down some time in the future. The long-range forecasts call for wetter than normal conditions for the next three months, and that also implies difficult Corn planting this year. Producers wanted an early start to fieldwork this year as wet conditions last Fall meant little work got done. Ideas are that USDA will in the end find maybe 91 million acres planted, and a continued wet and cold Spring could drop the planted area estimate even more.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 363, 360, and 356 May, and resistance is at 367, 370, and 373 May. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 284, 280, and 279 May, and resistance is at 291, 294, and 295 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were slightly higher on reports that good progress is being made in the trade talks between the US and China this week. The market tended to ignore threats from Trump about closing the Mexican border to inhibit immigrant flow, but also severely hurt trade between the two countries. He backed off on that threat late yesterday. US basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico have been much lower recently than a month ago in response to the pressure from South America and the reduced pace of US export sales in the past few weeks. South American currency pressure is likely to continue as presidential elections are coming to Argentina soon and the new government in Brazil is off to a difficult start. US producers might be forced to plant Soybeans as production costs are less and as the outlook for the next three months is for wetter than normal weather, implying less time to prepare fields for planting anything. Demand in the coming year might be less due in large part to the Swine Fever epidemic in the hog herd in China. The country is already importing less Soybeans due to less feed demand, and the trend should continue. The country will need to import pork for sale to the public and also hogs once the epidemic is under control to rebuild herds.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 899, 892, and 883 May, and resistance is at 908, 913, and 924 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 301.00 May, and resistance is at 312.00, 314.00, and 316.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2960 May. Support is at 2860, 2840, and 2830 May, with resistance at 2920, 2950, and 2970 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with Chicago and on hopes for a resolution to the trade dispute Canada is having with China. Traders are worried about demand and hope that the Canadian government finds a way to cut a deal to get Canola sales and shipments to China flowing again. Canola traders are still worried about big supplies in the Prairies and the lack of demand from China and expect stocks data to show higher supplies in the coming months. Palm Oil was a little higher in response to reports of strong demand from exporters. Demand could remain strong as prices are cheaper on a relative basis. Short term trends remain are still turning up, but futures are pushing hard against support areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 449.00, and 446.00 March, with resistance at 462.00, 467.00, and 469.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2200 and 2280 June. Support is at 2190, 2150, and 2120 May, with resistance at 2220, 2250, and 2270 May.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Apr 5
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended March 31, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 3046.5 934.2 238.0 305.4 59.3 1125.2 388.7 457.0 7313.4
Week Ago 3091.4 939.5 271.3 320.3 60.9 1245.1 401.1 450.1 7543.7
Year Ago 2896.2 594.8 207.7 339.8 62.7 1414.4 348.9 223.7 6775.0
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 392.1 113.2 27.0 65.0 12.5 285.5 61.6 14.4 1009.2
Week Ago 349.9 98.8 36.8 53.8 6.0 303.6 51.1 10.2 954.0
To Date 14792.0 2943.6 1568.3 2616.6 254.9 12493.9 2383.9 387.4 40317.8
Year Ago 12301.8 2718.4 1544.3 2271.1 289.2 13350.1 1902.8 342.2 37767.0
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 288.9 134.1 0.0 31.0 4.6 192.6 34.1 13.3 718.6
Week Ago 247.8 123.9 0.6 80.1 3.1 153.3 33.6 10.2 702.7
To Date 13399.5 2719.9 302.1 1623.3 80.6 6788.8 1294.7 886.2 32470.7
Year Ago 11392.7 2905.3 123.0 1278.9 144.7 7342.5 1171.7 614.0 29894.0
EXPORTS
This Week 387.4 109.7 18.1 44.4 10.6 163.8 59.1 0.0 797.7
Week Ago 272.8 179.1 39.7 66.7 2.3 199.1 0.9 0.0 777.9
To Date 12080.6 2499.1 1069.4 1747.9 161.0 6398.9 1337.2 936.2 30100.0
Year Ago 10424.9 2668.5 1095.8 1380.3 211.7 6941.2 1207.4 419.9 27862.2
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 44.1 3.3 5.5 24.2 2.2 216.4 5.2 19.1 346.2
Week Ago 50.4 5.9 7.3 21.6 1.5 176.6 2.8 15.8 308.2
To Date 2666.7 224.0 201.7 754.7 39.8 6188.1 143.2 788.8 12728.6
Year Ago 3074.2 468.0 171.8 808.7 35.3 6213.2 160.6 419.1 13172.8
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Significant precipitation is likely late this weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 52 May 165 May 85 May 24 May +3 May
May 51 May 85 May 30 July
June 45 July 65 July 28 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
April
May 40 May -21.5 May
June 40 July -21.5 July 52 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 4
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 450.40 dn 3.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 470.00 up 2.60
2 Can 457.00 up 2.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 488.00 up 2.60
2 Can 475.00 up 2.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 547.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 562.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 575.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May 557.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 567.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 580.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 520.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 475.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,100 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 150 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0835)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322