Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday and made new highs for the move. The trading has had a firm tome over the last few weeks and has developed a pattern of moving to new highs after testing support. Some talk in Chicago that China was bidding for up to 3.0 million tons of US Corn was taken as an indication that the talks are going very well and big agricultural buying of goods including Cotton are coming sooner rather than late4r. Hopes for Chinese demand and persistent cold and wet weather in growing areas are providing support. Everyone is waiting for the resolution of the US-China trade dispute, and the US government is indicating that a deal is going to be more difficult to achieve by the end of the month. Both sides are negotiating the final points, with the US worried about verification of the movers to fulfill commitments and the Chinese worried that they might give up too much to get a deal. It still looks like a deal will be done eventually, but it will take longer than had been indicated to get the last parts completed. The US weather continues to feature a lot of rain in the south, and fieldwork and initial planting in far southern areas is mostly delayed. Current long range forecasts suggest that wet conditions will continue in the Southeast and that Texas could see unsettled and colder than normal weather at least through the end of this month.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get rains today and tomorrow, then dry weather. Temperatures should average above normal today, then below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to above normal today, then trend to below normal. The USDA average price is now 70.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 112,289 ba1es, from 112,228 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 120 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 166,100 bales this year and 23,100 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 29,300 bales this year and 1,600 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7800 and 8210 May. Support is at 7460, 7380, and 7250 May, with resistance of 7610, 7750, and 7850 May.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on follow through buying. Speculators appear to be the best buyers and appear to be covering short positions. The charts show that the market has finally bottomed. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the weather is mostly dry. The fruit is abundant. Florida producers are seeing small sized to good sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and all processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit. Flowering for the next crop is ongoing, and fruit is starting to form on some trees. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil, and some beneficial rains should be seen this week.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 312 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 131.00 May. Support is at 122.00, 117.00, and 116.00 May, with resistance at 128.00, 130.00, and 135.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York after failing to push to new lows for the move and new contract lows. Prices closed slightly lower in London but remain in a trading range. New York trends are down. Speculators are keeping the pressure on the New York market as they fear big supplies of Arabica with not enough demand. Big exports as reported by the ICO and from Brazil all season long imply that the market is well supplied. Brazil export data has shown a strong pace at over 3.5 million bags in February. The ICO has forecast a surplus year again this year, and inventory data from ICO and others shows ample supplies. Prices are moving below profitable levels for Colombia, and have been below profitable levels for producers in Central America. Further weakness will cause farmers in Brazil, Peru, and Vietnam to start losing money as well. Showers are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest, but producers are not willing to sell at current prices. It is still dry, and production potential for the next crop is being hurt.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are near higher today and are about 2.495 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 98.20 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal this week and near normal this weekend. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather. ICE said that 5 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month now total 223 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 93.00 and 89.00 May. Support is at 94.00, 91.00, and 85.00 May, and resistance is at 98.00, 100.00 and 101.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1500 and 1470 May. Support is at 1500, 1480, and 1450 May, and resistance is at 1540, 1550, and 1560 May.
DJ European Coffee Stocks Slipped in January -ECF
By David Hodari
European coffee stocks slipped in January, after rising the previous month, the European Coffee Federation said Thursday.
Stocks fell by 10,070 tons, or 1.46%, to 678,669 metric tons from 688,739 tons in December, the data shows.
The data tracks the total amount of beans held at six major European coffee ports–Antwerp in Belgium, Barcelona in Spain, Germany’s Hamburg, Le Havre in France, and Italy’s Trieste and Genoa.
The data showed inventory falls at all ports except Hamburg and Barcelona –the ports with the second- and fourth-highest stocks.
Hamburg recorded a 1,803-ton increase to 109,177 tons, while Barcelona’s inventories rose 731 tons to 43,650 tons.
Stocks at Antwerp, the largest of the six, fell 2,698 tons to 377,152 tons, while invenstories at Genoa and Le Havre inventories fell by 8,547 tons and 232 tons to 81,243 tons and 27,452 tons, respectively.
Supply at Trieste shrank by 1,127 tons to 39,995 tons.
General Comments: New York closed a little higher, but London closed a little lower. The market is searching for a direction right now. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Brazil weather is improving in all areas as there is less rain in southern areas and more to the north. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is being hurt by news that Indian mills are asking the government not to force them to sell Sugar into a depressed world market. They do not want to lose more money as they have already needed government subsidies to keep working. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get showers. Temperatures should be above normal this week and near normal this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1200 and 1170 May. Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1200 May, and resistance is at 1250, 1280, and 1300 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives of 342.00 May. Support is at 336.00, 335.00, and 333.00 May, and resistance is at 344.00, 347.00, and 352.00 May.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. The main crop harvest is almost over in West Africa, and Ivory Coast arrivals are strong. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa. Rains are in the forecast for the next couple of days that will improve soil moisture conditions, and the cold and dry Harmattan winds of early this week will be a thing of the past. Nigeria is reporting losses to its crops due to recent hot and dry weather. Cameroon is also reporting less production and prices there are reported strong. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 4.244 million bags. ICE said that there were 1 notice was posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,087 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2170, 2150, and 2120 May, with resistance at 2240, 2250, and 2270 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1620, and 1600 Mary, with resistance at 1700, 1720, and 1730 May.