About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 11
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 07, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/07/2019 02/28/2019 03/08/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 122 0 6,974 20,826
CORN 765,618 865,617 1,377,244 26,563,990 20,354,166
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 242 4,745
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 100 0 200 2,093 11,581
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 63,583 58,736 194,539 948,607 3,281,795
SOYBEANS 874,363 848,357 930,222 26,832,281 39,730,303
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 592,001 488,829 428,815 17,602,154 18,711,821
Total 2,295,665 2,261,661 2,931,020 71,956,341 82,115,261
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 13, 2019 100 Mar 08, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 13, 2019 60 Mar 08, 2019
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 13, 2019 2 Mar 11, 2019
CORN March Mar. 13, 2019 809 Mar 11, 2019
SOYBEAN March Mar. 13, 2019 243 Mar 11, 2019
WHEAT March Mar. 13, 2019 15 Mar 08, 2019

DJ Brazil Cuts Forecast for 2018-2019 Soybean Crop to 113.5M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab cut its forecast for soybean production in the 2018-2019 growing season following unfavorable weather in December and January and amid questions about quality in some regions.
Brazilian farmers will produce 113.5 million metric tons of soybeans in the current growing season, Conab said Tuesday, down from its February forecast of 115.3 million tons. If Conab is correct, it will be Brazil’s third-biggest soybean crop ever, surpassed only by the 119.3 million tons grown in the 2017-2018 season and the 114.1 million tons produced in 2016-2017.
Unusually hot, dry weather in some states in December and January came at a key time for the crop’s development, and the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul were particularly hard hit. In the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil’s biggest producer of soybeans, the crop will probably decline by 4% to 5% this season from a year ago, according to growers’ group Aprosoja Mato Grosso.
Abundant precipitation in some areas on the past few weeks has helped part of the crop recover from the previous dry weather, though it’s also slowing the harvest and raising concerns about the levels of humidity in the oil seeds in some areas, according to analysts.
Conab raised its forecast for corn production in 2018-2019 to 92.8 million tons, from 91.7 million tons in February. In the previous season, Brazil grew 80.7 million tons of corn. Brazil’s farmers take advantage of the country’s mild winters to grow two crops per year, often planting soybeans in the southern hemisphere summer than corn in the winter.
Brazil’s summer corn production will be slightly smaller than previously forecast, because of the bad weather earlier in the season, but the winter crop will be bigger than expected because farmers planted at a good time and because they increased their investment in material, Conab said.
Conab changed the format of its forecast report in March, greatly reducing the amount of information available about conditions in the fields.

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were sharply lower again yesterday. Demand worries and ideas of big supplies in the US supported the selling. Speculators were the best sellers. The market is oversold now, but needs a trigger to mount a big recovery rally. Export demand for US Wheat has improved recently as Russian prices have stayed above those in the US, but the stronger US Dollar Index has helped to keep Wheat prices on the defensive as the stronger Dollar promotes higher US prices in local currencies. The temperatures in the US remain cold, and Winter Wheat is still dormant. The Fall season in both Winter Wheat regions featured a lot of rain that hurt harvest and planting, and it is likely that not all intended acreage got planted to Wheat. Wet weather has continued for much of the Winter, and it is likely that the crop will have good soil moisture to work with as it comes out of dormancy in the next month. The Winter Wheat crop condition is not good and significantly worse than previous reports due to the Fall planting problems and the extreme weather seen in Winter Wheat growing areas over the Winter. Weekly chart trends are down for SRW with a target near 420. Weekly trends for HRW are down and also target about 420. Minneapolis remains the stronger market and has not completely turned trends down. It could move to about 525 if it does go lower, and possibly 485 over time.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some snow or rain by the middle of next week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see occasional light precipitation by the middle of this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see precipitation in the south. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 415 May. Support is at 426, 423, and 420 May, with resistance at 442, 447, and 454 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 417 and 397 May. Support is at 418, 415, and 412 May, with resistance at 433, 442, and 448 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 541 and 526 May. Support is at 544, 542, and 539 May, and resistance is at 551, 555, and 557 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as no announcement of concrete progress in the China trade targets. Somewhat drier weather has moved into parts of the important growing areas gave rice a reason to work lower. Rice is now a weather market as planting conditions remain very difficult in much of Texas and areas near the Gulf coast. Initial fieldwork is not really getting done in most areas right no. Planted area estimated by USDA might go lower yet unless the weather gets better or the prices show significant improvement. USDA made no real changes in its monthly supply and demand estimates. Demand is holding strong as seen in the weekly export sales reports. Cash prices paid to farmers have been mostly stable on moderate mill demand. Cash prices for new crop Rice are below those for the current crop due to ideas on unchanged planted area and better yield potential. All that could change if the weather remains as it is for another few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers by the middle of this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal, and much above normal on Thursday.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1150 May. Support is at 1064, 1059, and 1048 May, with resistance at 1088, 1097, and 1109 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on demand concerns and as there was nothing new released on the US China trade talks. USDA dropped food and ethanol demand in its monthly supply and demand updates. It also dropped export demand, and this was a surprise for the market. Ethanol demand has been dropping with weaker petroleum prices and demand for animal feed has been weak for a year and remains weak. There are problems with the new trade agreement with China. Negotiations are continuing, but there have been problems with some of the provisions wanted by the US and resisted by China. The US government says it still expects to have an agreement, but a signing ceremony by the end of the month looks doubtful at this time. South American weather is generally good as more showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. The Winter Corn crop is being planted as Soybeans get harvested, so the rains are very beneficial after an extended dry season. US farmers are still trying to decide on their planting mix this year. Corn planting should be starting in areas near the Gulf Coast, but fieldwork in many cases has been delayed by excessive rains in the past few weeks. The pattern of big rains every few days does not seem to be changing for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 360, 357, and 354 May, and resistance is at 367, 370, and 374 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 262, 260, and 258 May, and resistance is at 268, 270, and 274 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower again, with Soybean Oil holding the best, but the others making new lows for the move. The selling came despite news that China had bought almost 1.0 million tons in confirmed sales over the weekend and 600,000 tons late last week. Ideas that South America is about to take a lot of US business gave the sellers some cover. USDA released its monthly supply and demand estimates on Friday and showed a slight increase in crush demand and unchanged exports. Ending stocks estimates were in line with trade expectations. Production estimated were slightly lower in Brazil due to the earlier extreme weather and unchanged in Argentina. Brazil is still very active with its harvest and should continue to show increased offers and very competitive prices. Argentina also looks to export this year as crops there are much better. Ideas are that the US export sales pace will fall seasonally in the near term. Everyone is waiting for the resolution of the US-China trade dispute, but there is no news on that front. Negotiations are continuing, but there have been problems with some of the provisions wanted by the US and resisted by China. The US government says it still expects to have an agreement, but a signing ceremony by the end of the month looks doubtful at this time. The weather in the US is very cold in the north and very wet in the south.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 889 May. Support is at 885, 882, and 872 May, and resistance is at 901, 905, and 907 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 299.00 May. Support is at 301.00, 298.00, and 295.00 May, and resistance is at 305.00, 308.00, and 311.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2870 and 2740 May. Support is at 2950, 2930, and 2890 May, with resistance at 2990, 3010, and 3030 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower. Ideas of big supplies are hurting nearby prices, and the government has recently increased ending stocks estimates for the current crop. Ending stocks are now estimated at 2.5 million tons. There is talk of improved export demand, but most of the demand talk is negative right now. Palm Oil was slightly lower again in quit trading. Weaker outside markets were negative, too. There is talk that February production will be stronger than expected. Short term trends remain down in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 452.00, 449.00, and 446.00 March, with resistance at 460.00, 464.00, and 470.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2090, 2060, and 2030 May, with resistance at 2160, 2180, and 2210 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for significant precipitation by the middle of this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal and much above normal on Wednesday and Thursday.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 51 May 173 May 80 May 36 May Price
April 52 May 83 May 31 May
May 52 May 83 May 36 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
March
April 45 May -15 May
May -16 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 11
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 441.86 up 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 470.80 dn 1.50
2 Can 457.80 dn 1.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 480.80 dn 1.50
2 Can 467.80 dn 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 525.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 532.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 545.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 562.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Mar 530.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 537.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 550.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 567.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 517.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 470.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1,970 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 149 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0820)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 142,580 lots, or 4.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 3,277 3,277 3,277 0 0 0
May-19 3,395 3,399 3,376 3,389 3,369 3,389 20 130,078 143,204
Jul-19 3,464 3,473 3,455 3,462 3,430 3,463 33 20 154
Sep-19 3,466 3,471 3,450 3,456 3,451 3,459 8 11,592 34,688
Nov-19 – – – 3,345 3,338 3,345 7 0 14
Jan-20 3,383 3,385 3,374 3,380 3,377 3,379 2 890 21,474
Corn
Turnover: 680,150 lots, or 12.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 1,760 1,760 1,760 0 0 0
May-19 1,835 1,846 1,835 1,844 1,830 1,840 10 404,004 1,000,448
Jul-19 1,860 1,868 1,859 1,862 1,850 1,863 13 84,710 108,004
Sep-19 1,878 1,884 1,872 1,881 1,868 1,877 9 181,650 669,716
Nov-19 1,904 1,906 1,899 1,905 1,897 1,903 6 242 1,786
Jan-20 1,921 1,930 1,921 1,930 1,916 1,925 9 9,544 50,918
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,860,332 lots, or 47.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 2,421 2,421 2,421 0 0 0
May-19 2,523 2,532 2,502 2,510 2,525 2,514 -11 1,349,672 1,950,846
Jul-19 2,564 2,566 2,536 2,544 2,563 2,553 -10 78,796 108,886
Aug-19 2,584 2,584 2,569 2,572 2,589 2,575 -14 30 242
Sep-19 2,585 2,591 2,562 2,569 2,588 2,573 -15 411,378 1,091,256
Nov-19 2,608 2,609 2,590 2,595 2,614 2,597 -17 458 3,844
Dec-19 2,654 2,654 2,638 2,650 2,660 2,647 -13 16 246
Jan-20 2,662 2,667 2,644 2,648 2,666 2,651 -15 19,982 110,370
Palm Oil
Turnover: 560,386 lots, or 25.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 4,714 4,714 4,714 0 0 0
Apr-19 4,600 4,600 4,600 4,600 4,676 4,600 -76 18 2
May-19 4,580 4,616 4,556 4,586 4,600 4,590 -10 462,648 538,300
Jun-19 – – – 4,754 4,754 4,754 0 0 52
Jul-19 – – – 4,774 4,774 4,774 0 0 28
Aug-19 – – – 4,732 4,732 4,732 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,750 4,780 4,736 4,756 4,770 4,758 -12 92,910 171,664
Oct-19 – – – 4,784 4,784 4,784 0 0 10
Nov-19 – – – 4,868 4,868 4,868 0 0 16
Dec-19 4,954 5,070 4,954 4,988 4,976 5,004 28 10 90
Jan-20 4,780 4,810 4,776 4,798 4,798 4,792 -6 4,800 38,958
Feb-20 – – – 4,876 4,882 4,876 -6 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 571,514 lots, or 32.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 5,266 5,266 5,266 0 0 0
May-19 5,718 5,742 5,664 5,676 5,730 5,706 -24 419,836 640,008
Jul-19 5,756 5,756 5,756 5,756 5,764 5,756 -8 2 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,812 5,820 5,812 -8 0 2
Sep-19 5,800 5,826 5,760 5,772 5,820 5,792 -28 146,288 320,508
Nov-19 – – – 5,862 5,862 5,862 0 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,880 5,908 5,880 -28 0 10
Jan-20 5,902 5,924 5,862 5,880 5,920 5,890 -30 5,388 32,616
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322