About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. March Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA February USDA 2017-2018
Corn 1,755 1,685-1,835 1,735 2,140
Soybeans 898 852-940 910 438
Wheat 1,024 1,010-1,050 1,010 1099
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,735 900 1,010
AgriVisor 1,735 895 1,035
Allendale 1,795 900 1,034
Citizens LLC 1,710 905 1,050
DC Analysis 1,760 905 1,035
Doane 1,835 870 1,030
Farm Futures 1,750 865 1,030
Futures INTL 1,685 880 1,010
Hueber Report 1,735 910 1,010
INTL FCStone 1,772 852 1,033
Sid Love Consulting 1,735 910 1,010
Price Group 1,735 910 1,035
Prime Ag 1,735 910 1,010
RMC 1,740 910 1,020
RJ O’Brien 1,810 940 1,050
US Commodities 1,750 900 1,015
Vantage RM 1,735 910 1,010
Western Milling 1,835 939 1,021
Zaner 1,755 860 1,010

DJ March World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA February USDA 2017-18
Corn 309.1 306.3-312.0 309.8 340.8
Soybeans 106.3 104.4-113.6 106.7 98.1
Wheat 267.8 266.0-269.0 267.5 280.0
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 311.0 107.8 267.0
AgriVisor 309.0 104.5 267.5
Allendale 308.9 113.6 266.8
Citizens LLC 307.5 104.5 268.0
Doane 307.0 105.0 268.0
Farm Futures 311.0 106.0 268.5
Futures INTL 307.0 105.0 268.5
Hueber Report 306.3 104.7 266.5
INTL FCStone 306.5 106.3 268.7
Prime Ag 312.0 107.0 268.0
RMC 310.0 106.7 269.0
US Commodities 308.5 105.0 268.4
Western Milling 311.0 108.0 268.0
Zaner 311.2 104.4 266.0

DJ March Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2017-18
Corn 94.6 93.0-96.0 94.5 82.0
Soybeans 115.4 113.0-117.0 117.0 120.8
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 94.5 117.0
AgriVisor 94.5 115.0
Allendale 94.5 115.5
Citizens LLC 95.0 115.5
DC Analysis 95.5 115.5
Doane 93.0 115.0
Farm Futures 95.0 115.0
Futures INTL 95.0 115.0
Hueber Report 93.0 115.0
INTL FCStone 93.8 113.0
Sid Love Consulti N/A 115.0
Price Group 94.0 115.0
Prime Ag 96.0 117.0
RMC 94.3 116.7
US Commodities 94.0 115.0
Western Milling 95.0 115.0
Zaner 96.0 116.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2017-18
Corn 46.0 44.0-47.0 46.0 32.0
Soybeans 55.2 53.0-56.7 55.0 37.8
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 47.0 55.5
AgriVisor 46.0 54.5
Allendale 46.0 55.5
Citizens LLC 47.0 55.0
DC Analysis 46.5 53.0
Doane 45.0 55.0
Farm Futures 46.0 56.7
Futures INTL 45.0 54.0
Hueber Report 44.0 55.0
INTL FCStone 45.5 56.0
Price Group 46.0 56.0
Prime Ag 46.0 55.0
RMC 45.7 54.7
US Commodities 46.5 55.5
Western Milling 47.0 56.0
Zaner 46.5 55.0

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for February USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal, for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. EST (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates

On-feed Feb. 1 100.2 99.1- 100.6
Placed in January 92.6 87.0- 95.9
Marketed in January 102.3 96.9- 102.9
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Feb. 1 in January in January
Allegiant Commodity Group 100.1 93.2 102.9
Allendale Inc. 100.0 91.8 101.7
HedgersEdge 100.6 93.3 102.4
Linn Group 100.3 89.5 96.9
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.6 95.9 102.4
NFC Markets 99.1 87.0 102.3
Texas A&M Extension 100.5 95.1 102.8

DJ FAO Food Price Index Rose 1.7% in February
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices rose in February, climbing across most categories, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Thursday.
The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.7% from its January level, although remained some 2.3% below the level in the same month last year, the organization said.
Dairy prices rose 5.6%, thanks to butter production concerns, while meat prices were slightly higher.
Vegetable oils rose 1.8% on month after a protracted fall in the months to December.
Cereal prices ticked up on month, and were marginally higher on year. Prices of most cereals, apart from rice, kept prices supported, with adverse weather conditions in South America a factor.
Sugar prices rose 1.2% on month, rallying with concerns over production.

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Mar 7
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 53.736 million pounds, in January, 27.2% above the previous
month, and 22.7% above January 2018, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Thursday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Jan 31 Dec 31 Jan 31 Dec 31 warehouse
2019 2018 2018 2017 stocks/Jan
pork bellies 53,736 42,251 43,810 39,620
orange juice 604,506 547,910 517,105 505,077
french fries 1,023,004 944,230 1,001,232 940,958
other potatoes 234,159 230,329 257,077 242,085
chicken rstr (whole) 17,286 17,712 12,841 11,990
ham 112,654 73,118 118,407 81,082
total pork 562,710 505,287 580,714 490,047 507,677
total beef 510,065 495,624 501,744 488,057 502,154
total red meat 1,119,765 1,045,603 1,129,160 1,021,191 1,056,760
total chicken 842,180 881,626 877,334 887,222
total turkey 389,195 302,763 375,188 309,625
total poultry 1,234,456 1,187,331 1,255,324 1,199,220 1,150,144
==============================================================================

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 11, 2019 257 Mar 07, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 11, 2019 95 Mar 06, 2019
CORN March Mar. 11, 2019 1092 Mar 07, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar. 11, 2019 5 Mar 04, 2019
OATS March Mar. 11, 2019 2 Mar 01, 2019
SOYBEAN March Mar. 11, 2019 599 Mar 07, 2019
WHEAT March Mar. 11, 2019 41 Mar 06, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower on ideas of strong competition in overseas markets. The weekly export sales report was stronger than expected, but the Dollar moved higher and there are doubts that sales reports down the road can maintain the stronger tone. Ideas and reports of cheaper offers from Europe and Russia continue to put US Wheat values down. However, the demand for US Wheat has improved in the world markets, and Wheat export sales have generally been improving over the last couple of months. The temperatures in the US remain cold, and Winter Wheat is still dormant. Temperatures should start to moderate for the rest of the week and the weekend. The Fall season in both Winter Wheat regions featured a lot of rain that hurt harvest and planting all season long. Wet weather has continued for much of the Winter, and it is likely that the crop will have good soil moisture to work with as it comes out of dormancy in the next month. Weekly chart trends are down for SRW with a target near 420. Weekly trends for HRW are down and also target about 420. Minneapolis remains the stronger market and has not completely turned trends down. It could move to about 525 if it does go lower, and possibly 485 over time.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some snow this weekend and by the middle of next week. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see occasional light precipitation this weekend and by the middle of next week. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see precipitation in the south. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 432 and 415 May. Support is at 437, 434, and 431 May, with resistance at 454, 464, and 465 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 417 and 397 May. Support is at 424, 421, and 418 May, with resistance at 442, 448, and 453 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 541 May. Support is at 550, 548, and 545 May, and resistance is at 557, 566, and 573 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower after making new highs for the move. Rice is now a weather market, and the weather in general remains poor for fieldwork. It is still raining in most Rice production areas, and initial fieldwork is not really getting done, although there are reports that Rice is getting planted around Houston. Planted area estimated by USDA at its Outlook Conference was lower than the trade had expected and might go lower yet unless the weather gets better, or the prices show significant improvement. The US-China trade talks continued, and the US side has said a deal could be completed this month. China could buy between $45 and $50 billion in agricultural goods each year, including Rice. Ideas are that it would buy mostly medium and short grain as these seem to have been the favorites for Chinese visitors so far.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers this weekend and by the middle of next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1096 and 1150 May. Support is at 1067, 1059, and 1048 May, with resistance at 1097, 1100, and 1108 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on speculative selling that was also seen in Wheat. The selling came in spite of good export sales and seemed partly related to the US Dollar strength and partly related to fears that USDA will increase ending stocks estimates by cutting demand for feed and ethanol. There was no new demand talk yesterday, and the market needs to see the strong demand to keep going higher or even trade sideways. South American weather is generally good as more showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. The Winter Corn crop is being planted as Soybeans get harvested, so the rains are very beneficial after an extended dry season. Corn planting should be starting in areas near the Gulf Coast, but fieldwork in many cases has been delayed by excessive rains. There have been minimal amounts of Corn planted in far south Texas and almost none reported planted near the Gulf Coast. Weekly chart trends in Corn are down with targets of 353 and 338 on the nearest futures contract. Weekly chart trends in Oats are down with objectives of 322 and 282 basis the nearest futures contract. Daily chart trends are turning sideways.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 365. Support is at 363, 360, and 357 May, and resistance is at 370, 374, and 376 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 262, 260, and 258 May, and resistance is at 270, 274, and 277 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were mixed to a little higher and Soybean Oil closed lower. The weekly export sales report was poor for Soybeans and Soybean Oil, but strong for Soybean Meal. Wire reports that China had bought 2.0 million tons of US Soybeans for shipment in late Summer and early Fall supported prices. Soybeans and Soybean Meal faded from the highest levels on the day on ideas of increasing competition for sales from South America. Brazil should start to show increased offers and very competitive prices soon. Argentina also looks to export this year as crops there are much better. Ideas are that the US export sales pace will fall seasonally in the near term. The US government said last week that negotiations on a complete trade deal with China could be wrapped up this month. China could buy between $45 and $50 billion of US agricultural products each year as part of the agreement. The weather in the US is very cold in the north and very wet in the south. Very little fieldwork is getting done, and planting delays are possible for Corn and Rice. This could force more acres to Soybeans unless the weather changes in the next month.
Overnight News: USDA said that China bought 664,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 889 May. Support is at 894, 891, and 885 May, and resistance is at 907, 909, and 913 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 299.00 May. Support is at 303.00, 301.00, and 298.00 May, and resistance is at 311.00, 313.00, and 315.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2870 and 2740 May. Support is at 2930, 2890, and 2870 May, with resistance at 2990, 3010, and 3030 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on speculative selling as news that China had cancelled one shipment of Canola continued to hurt demand ideas. Prices recovered to close with small gains on ideas that the market had become very oversold. The two countries are having a war of words over a jailed Huawei executive, the financial officer charged with industrial espionage. Ideas of big supplies are hurting nearby prices, and the government has recently increased ending stocks estimates for the current crop. Ending stocks are now estimated at 2.5 million tons. There is talk of improved export demand, but most of the demand talk is negative right now. Palm Oil was lower to start the week on weaker export demand as reported by the private sources and on ideas that the monthly MPOB data will be bearish. Weaker outside markets were negative, too. There is talk that February production will be stronger than expected. Short term trends remain down in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 452.00, 449.00, and 446.00 March, with resistance at 464.00, 470.00, and 474.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2060 May, with resistance at 2180, 2210, and 2230 May.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Mar 7
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended March 3, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2907.6 936.5 227.1 428.2 52.2 1172.9 356.7 424.9 7301.9
Week ago 2831.6 950.1 208.8 440.3 49.6 1214.4 336.5 441.6 7241.5
Year ago 3048.2 616.1 215.5 454.1 68.5 1462.5 239.9 172.6 6900.8
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 380.0 131.1 40.7 77.0 8.5 323.1 61.0 12.5 1087.7
Week Ago 370.8 131.9 24.6 89.3 10.2 331.5 37.4 9.2 1051.6
To Date 13082.6 2471.4 1391.8 2378.7 219.4 11276.2 2141.9 340.3 36004.6
Year Ago 10872.1 2410.0 1399.0 2016.4 264.2 11769.5 1659.5 301.0 33532.9
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 247.9 71.5 1.7 40.7 0.0 98.3 31.2 22.2 549.0
Week Ago 273.1 60.4 11.0 60.9 0.0 103.0 49.4 26.4 598.0
To Date 12338.7 2243.4 281.3 1421.4 70.7 6146.5 1185.8 801.6 29755.4
Year Ago 10103.5 2679.5 122.8 1092.2 144.6 6602.0 1100.0 556.6 27081.5
EXPORTS
This Week 285.2 76.8 13.6 97.8 1.6 168.7 44.5 32.6 726.7
Week Ago 354.2 0.4 46.8 20.0 4.7 132.7 66.5 0.0 654.4
To Date 10725.8 2017.4 949.0 1524.9 145.9 5801.6 1239.9 905.4 27109.2
Year Ago 9149.2 2411.4 975.5 1132.8 198.0 6178.5 1150.0 419.4 24962.3
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 40.6 3.9 5.9 22.8 1.6 152.8 3.9 21.5 274.5
Week Ago 39.2 1.9 4.0 25.7 0.4 142.4 3.3 15.9 262.8
To Date 2417.3 197.3 172.9 665.1 34.1 5485.2 126.0 708.2 11415.3
Year Ago 2739.4 441.3 152.9 711.8 31.9 5289.3 140.0 374.4 11588.7
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for significant precipitation for most areas this weekend and hen by the middle of next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 51 May 171 May 80 March 36 May Price
April 50 May 85 May 34 May
May 50 May 85 May 40 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
March
April 41 May -17 May
May 55 May -17 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 7
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, March 7 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 439.36 dn 2.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 471.20 up 0.90
2 Can 458.20 up 0.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 481.20 up 0.90
2 Can 468.20 up 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 525.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 535.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 530.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 540.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 552.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 570.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 517.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 470.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1,980 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 153.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0890)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 190,924 lots, or 6.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 3,277 3,277 3,277 0 0 0
May-19 3,417 3,420 3,371 3,377 3,414 3,390 -24 170,872 153,848
Jul-19 – – – 3,458 3,482 3,458 -24 0 146
Sep-19 3,488 3,488 3,450 3,453 3,480 3,462 -18 17,212 34,404
Nov-19 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,452 3,348 -104 2 14
Jan-20 3,388 3,388 3,370 3,380 3,384 3,379 -5 2,838 20,738
Corn
Turnover: 629,134 lots, or 11.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 1,760 1,760 1,760 0 0 0
May-19 1,828 1,836 1,823 1,828 1,828 1,829 1 351,814 1,028,432
Jul-19 1,850 1,860 1,842 1,845 1,840 1,852 12 91,130 100,404
Sep-19 1,857 1,869 1,855 1,862 1,854 1,861 7 178,900 599,414
Nov-19 1,888 1,891 1,882 1,887 1,881 1,886 5 446 1,894
Jan-20 1,900 1,914 1,900 1,910 1,904 1,908 4 6,844 48,928
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,229,812 lots, or 56.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 2,407 2,407 2,407 0 0 732
May-19 2,530 2,531 2,506 2,522 2,514 2,521 7 1,707,440 2,019,688
Jul-19 2,566 2,571 2,546 2,560 2,549 2,559 10 87,944 110,668
Aug-19 2,605 2,605 2,587 2,587 2,590 2,599 9 32 226
Sep-19 2,603 2,605 2,581 2,586 2,594 2,591 -3 409,864 995,758
Nov-19 2,621 2,625 2,608 2,612 2,620 2,614 -6 292 3,516
Dec-19 2,669 2,669 2,669 2,669 2,668 2,669 1 2 244
Jan-20 2,668 2,676 2,656 2,664 2,669 2,665 -4 24,238 102,870
Palm Oil
Turnover: 493,024 lots, or 22.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 4,714 4,714 4,714 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 4,676 4,676 4,676 0 0 20
May-19 4,580 4,616 4,570 4,590 4,606 4,596 -10 400,320 514,396
Jun-19 – – – 4,770 4,770 4,770 0 0 52
Jul-19 – – – 4,774 4,774 4,774 0 0 28
Aug-19 – – – 4,732 4,732 4,732 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,760 4,796 4,758 4,770 4,788 4,780 -8 85,678 160,194
Oct-19 – – – 4,784 4,772 4,784 12 0 10
Nov-19 – – – 4,868 4,876 4,868 -8 0 16
Dec-19 4,944 4,972 4,944 4,972 4,966 4,958 -8 4 88
Jan-20 4,790 4,814 4,790 4,802 4,804 4,804 0 7,022 37,720
Feb-20 – – – 4,882 4,882 4,882 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 519,860 lots, or 29.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 5,266 5,266 5,266 0 0 0
May-19 5,720 5,748 5,698 5,724 5,766 5,724 -42 377,916 657,494
Jul-19 – – – 5,764 5,764 5,764 0 0 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,820 5,820 5,820 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,822 5,848 5,800 5,808 5,856 5,822 -34 136,298 317,428
Nov-19 – – – 5,862 5,862 5,862 0 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,908 5,908 5,908 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,906 5,952 5,906 5,918 5,956 5,932 -24 5,646 35,676
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322