About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on follow through speculative selling. Trends are down on the daily charts. Funds were the best sellers and were selling on the weaker chart patterns. Futures made new lows yesterday and could now move even lower The USDA reports on Friday gave no reason to look for big rallies at this time, but the reports were not really that bearish. The weekly export sales reports have started to show improved demand for US Cotton, but new demand from China would be great for the market. China and the US are meeting again this week in hopes of finding a trade agreement. There had been talk of less production from exporter countries like India, but USDA did not reflect these losses in its tables last week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get precipitation on Thursday and Friday and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 65.21 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 126,681 bales, from 127,356 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 6850, 6450, and 6050 March. Support is at 6970, 6940, and 6910 March, with resistance of 7070, 7170, and 7220 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 289,358
: Positions :
: 34,534 48,241 74,495 75,134 133,624 89,255 18,215 273,418 274,575: 15,940 14,783
: Changes from: January 8, 2019 (Change in open interest: 7,964) :
: -395 911 5,431 2,658 -3,694 -282 4,628 7,412 7,276: 553 689
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 16.7 25.7 26.0 46.2 30.8 6.3 94.5 94.9: 5.5 5.1
: Total Traders: 297 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 87 94 59 61 46 22 236 223:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly higher in consolidation trading. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts. Longer range forecasts show that there is little chance for a freeze to develop this month, and then it will be getting to be too late for a freeze to be seen in the state of Florida. The Oranges harvest is active in Florida as the weather is warm and mostly dry. The fruit is abundant, but arrivals to packing houses and processors are reported behind last year. Florida producers are seeing small-sized to good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and all processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil, and some beneficial rains are being seen this week.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather after some showers today. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 114.00, and 111.00 March, with resistance at 123.00, 124.00, and 126.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 22,130 :
: Positions :
: 13,537 7,420 1,804 0 0 647 8,592 293 765 1,110 2,267 :
: Changes from: January 8, 2019 :
: 495 42 89 0 0 -44 748 -16 -42 -70 184 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.2 33.5 8.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 38.8 1.3 3.5 5.0 10.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 88 :
: 24 12 6 0 0 4 27 5 13 8 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little higher in lower volume correction trading. Speculators were on both sides of the market. The Brazil harvest is getting close to done now. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can become about 52 million bags next year. Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by the current drought that could hurt production even more. Many areas are dry now, but showers are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest. Selling will likely increase this week as the Lunar New Year holiday is now over. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season. Prices in Vietnam are quoted weaker this week with the Tet holiday now over..
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.485 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 100.82 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers today and again this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 98.00 March. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 93.00 March, and resistance is at 104.00, 107.00 and 110.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1600, 1650, and 1670 March. Support is at 1500, 1480, and 1440 March, and resistance is at 1530, 1550, and 1570 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 341,403
: Positions :
: 29,034 96,861 87,760 137,173 119,754 67,072 27,416 321,039 331,791: 20,364 9,612
: Changes from: January 8, 2019 (Change in open interest: 7,907) :
: 1,116 6,508 74 1,832 -1,164 3,449 1,867 6,471 7,285: 1,437 622
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 28.4 25.7 40.2 35.1 19.6 8.0 94.0 97.2: 6.0 2.8
: Total Traders: 488 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 140 132 137 141 115 45 26 398 353:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets moved higher yesterday in recovery trading. New York was the stronger market despite ample supplies reported available to the cash buyers. Trends are now down in London, but sideways in New York. The weekly charts in both markets show mixed trends and the market appears to be searching for a direction at this time. Petroleum futures were also weaker, but this did not seem to support ethanol or Sugar prices. Brazil has been using the majority of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar. Dry conditions continue in northern Brazil and there are frequent rains in Rio Grande do Sul. These weather trends are starting to change as the rains move north into drier areas. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but the next production could be less as farmers might switch to other crops due to low prices for Sugarcane.
Overnight News: Brazil will get showers today and again this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1200 May, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1320 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 335.00 May. Support is at 338.00, 333.00, and 329.00 May, and resistance is at 346.00, 349.00, and 352.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,060,192
: Positions :
: 89,850 163,060 213,734 367,266 548,392 294,334 62,171 965,185 987,357: 95,007 72,835
: Changes from: January 8, 2019 (Change in open interest: -13,635) :
: 9,541 -20,566 -13,830 -8,703 23,227 -3,429 -1,845 -16,421 -13,014: 2,786 -621
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 15.4 20.2 34.6 51.7 27.8 5.9 91.0 93.1: 9.0 6.9
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 60 82 81 78 34 24 217 202:
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed mixed yesterday in consolidation trading. Conditions in the most of West Africa appear to be in good shape, but Harmattan winds were recently reported in Nigeria. The outlook for strong production in the coming year is still around, and ports are said to have plenty of Cocoa on offer. The main crop harvest is active in West Africa, and Ivory Coast arrivals are strong. Some early week showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial, it is warmer now and mostly dry. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.795 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2150 March, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2300 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1670, and 1650 March, with resistance at 1730, 1740, and 1750 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 299,958
: Positions :
: 40,966 40,036 64,981 113,518 162,907 66,234 20,805 285,699 288,729: 14,259 11,230
: Changes from: January 8, 2019 (Change in open interest: 1,891) :
: -235 -953 1,323 765 1,217 68 173 1,922 1,760: -31 131
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 13.3 21.7 37.8 54.3 22.1 6.9 95.2 96.3: 4.8 3.7
: Total Traders: 223 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 55 79 44 46 34 16 189 164:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322