About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337


The USDA Feb Report issued today at 11am was eagerly anticipated by the trade – being the first USDA Report in 2 months!  However, the numbers came in neutral and the mkt Kind of “ho-hummed” the report- indicating it’s more interested in the ongoing US/China Trade talks more than anything else!


  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 975,000 (800-1100) – Thur sales were 1,056 (400-1000)

Mon – 612,000      MT  – China

Tues –  2,603,000   MT  – China  274,000      MT  – Unk

Wed  – 182,000      MT   – Unk     580,000      MT   – China

An impressive array of exports this week with the 8am flash sales adding up to 4.2 MMT – close to the 5 MMT target China had promised


 Feb ‘19                Est Range            Dec’18 

Prod  –         4.544               4.490 – 4.592          4.600

Yield  –         51.6                         51-52                 52.1

US Stk          910                       800 – 996             955

Global          106.7                    109- 122              113

  • SOUTH AMERICA – Brazilian Bean Estimates have come in as low as 112 MMT more than 10% under the starting guess at 125 MMT
  • OUTSIDES – have been a mixed bag with the US $ coming off a 150 point rally while the crude oil is holding a $12 rally from its Dec lows
  • US/CHINA TRADE TALKS – the 4th round commences this coming week in Bejing with resolution hopeful by Mar 1 The mkt, while interested in the Feb 8 USDA Report – seemed to be more focused on the US/China trade talks – closing unchanged for the week after an Up-and-down day!



Mar Corn reacted to a neutral USDA Report with very disappointing technical action with a sweeping key reversal down – making new highs for the week – but closing on a 3 week low – while Mar Beans & wht closed higher.  It’s pretty hard to explain – Especially with a stable crude oil mkt.  A higher US Dollar was a possible negative!


  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 901,000 MT (800-1100) – Thur Sales were 503,000 (600-1400)
  • USDA FEB REPORT – friendly production & yield #’s were offset by higher than expected US & Global Stocks

Prod                 14420               (14.3 – 14.6)              14,626

Yield                 176.4                (175.9 -178.5)            178.9

US Stocks         1.753               (1.55 – 1.83)                1.781

Global               309.8               (305  –  311)                 307

  • CORN STILL THE CHEAPEST ANYWHERE – this will eventually favor excellent exports

The technical action belies a strong fundamental scenario for corn – let’s see what the coming US/China trade talks do to the mkt!


Mar Wht rebounded from a 12-lower close on Thursday by gaining 6 cents Friday “on the back” of a rare Egyptian purchase of US Wht & a friendly winter wheat seedings # from the USDA – 31.3 (31-33)!  Still, Mar Wht closed 6 lower on the week! However, US Wht  is very competitive on the world mkt – as evidenced by Egypt’s export interest!



Feb Cat continued its impressive upswing which started $10 ago in Mid-Nov (117-127) – undaunted by a “key reversal down” on 1-31-19 & general weakness in the Hog complex!  The contract closed within $.50 of its Jan Highs – up $2.00 for the week! The main catalysts for its powerful surge are unrelenting DEMAND & winter storms!


It’s hard to believe the dichotomy between Feb Hog & Feb Cat.  Feb Hogs closed lower again – forging new lows  – some $15 off its Nov Highs – whereas Feb Cat is only $.50 off its highs – some $10 higher than its Nov lows!  The main issue is massive pork production which has totally overcome pork demand – also there is the potential explosiveness of ASIAN SWINE FEVER – which could be wildly bullish  later on in 2019 – but which hasn’t kicked in yet!

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1340A, Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (855) 264-6673 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

To SUBSCRIBE to the AGMASTER please go to http://bit.ly/xIGR6x.

To Unsubscribe from the AGMASTER please send an email to offers@pricegroup.com.


View the AGMASTER Archives at http://blog.pricegroup.com/tag/agmaster.

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337