Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher in consolidation trading. Trends are still trying to turn down on the charts. Weak overall demand continues to impact the US market, but word of smaller supplies is providing the support. Ideas are that Cotton production can be reduced in the Friday. USDA reports as some of the crop was left in the fields well into the Winter season. Demand could also be less as demand reports have not been real strong this year and as China is not reported to be buying in the US market. Analysts expect and uptick in ending stocks estimates World production and supplies are seen by analysts as going a little higher
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get episodes of precipitation all week, then a dry weekend and above normal temperatures. Temperatures should be below normal this weekend. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be mostly below normal through Sunday, then mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 69.09 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 127,446 ba1es, from 127,546 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 228,200 bales this year and 32,200 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 8,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7270, 7220, and 7200 March, with resistance of 7410, 7480, and 7650 March.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Feb 6 2019 10:10:00
U.S. & World Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before WASDE
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2018-19 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Feb. 8.
| | | | Jan. |
2018-19:| Avg | Low | High | Survey | Dec.
US Production | 18.43| 18.10| 18.80| 18.40| 18.59
US Exports | 14.63| 12.90| 15.20| 14.88| 15.00
US End Stocks | 4.62| 4.10| 6.00| 4.37| 4.40
World | | | | |
Production | 118.23| 117.00| 119.00| 118.41| 118.74
World | | | | |
Consumption | 125.31| 124.80| 126.60| 125.29| 125.63
World End | | | | |
Stocks | 73.02| 71.70| 73.50| 73.35| 73.19
Analyst |————U.S.————| World
| | | End
Estimates: |Production |Exports |Stocks |Production |Consumption |Stocks
Cottonexperts.com | 18.10| 12.90| 6.00| 117.80| 124.80| 73.00
Doane | 18.70| 14.90| 4.60| 119.00| 125.00| 73.50
Love Consulting | 18.10| 15.00| 4.10| 118.30| 125.70| 73.10
Price Futures Group| 18.25| 14.80| 4.50|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 18.80| 15.20| 4.33| 117.00| 126.60| 71.70
Rose Commoditiy | | | | | |
Group | 18.25| 15.00| 4.10| 118.50| 125.10| 73.36
Varner Bros. | 18.75| 14.50| 5.06| 119.00| 125.00| 73.50
Wedbush Securities | 18.50| 14.75| 4.25| 118.00| 125.00| 73.00
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher. The market has absorbed speculative and producer selling through the Winter as no freeze has developed, and now there is some speculative and user buying with no real big offer noted. Longer range forecasts show that there is little chance for a freeze to develop this month, and then it will be getting to be too late for a freeze to be seen in the state of Florida. The Oranges harvest is active in Florida as the weather is warm and mostly dry. Irrigation is being used in all areas. All processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit, and packing houses remain active processing fresh fruit for sale. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil, and some beneficial rains should be seen this week.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 114.00, and 111.00 March, with resistance at 123.00, 124.00, and 126.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were a little higher and prices are holding the trading range. London was the stronger market with Vietnam closed for the holiday. The brazil harvest is getting close to done now. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can become about 52 million bags next year. Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by the current drought that could hurt production even more. Many areas are dry now, but showers are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest. Selling will be less this week due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.479 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 104.38 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely today. Temperatures should be above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 103.00, 102.00, and 100.00 March, and resistance is at 107.00, 110.00 and 112.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1600, 1650, and 1670 March. Support is at 1530, 1510, and 1500 March, and resistance is at 1570, 1590, and 1610 March.
General Comments: Both markets were mostly a little higher, but nearby London prices were slightly lower. The daily charts show that trends are trying to turn up again, especially in New York. Most analysts are still looking for surplus supplies, but the market acts as if it needs Sugar right now. Brazil has been producing ethanol and has reduced Sugar offers this year, and the market acts as if it needs a little more Sugar. Analysts say that there is plenty of Sugar around and another surplus is expected, but the price action is stronger than the analyst comments might suggest. There are doubts on just how much production will be seen this year in India. Dry conditions continue in northern Brazil and there are frequent rains in Rio Grande do Sul. Some showers are in the forecast for this week in Sugar areas Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but the next production could be less as farmers might switch to other crops due to low prices for Sugarcane.
Overnight News: Brazil will mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Wednesday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1220 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1310, and 1330 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 334.00, 331.00, and 328.00 March, and resistance is at 348.00, 351.00, and 353.00 March.
ISO-Thailand – As of February 5th, mills had crushed 69.7 mln tonnes of cane, up from 58.7 mln tonnes at the same time last year. Sugar Production reached 7.4 mln tonnes, up from 6.1 mln tonnes last year, owing to an earlier start to the season and two new mills.
General Comments: Futures closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying and on ideas that the market had become oversold and that Cocoa prices were too cheap. Funds have been the best buyers, but could be done buying for now. The outlook for strong production in the coming year is still around, and ports are said to have plenty of Cocoa on offer. The main crop harvest is active in West Africa, and Ivory Coast arrivals are strong. Some early week showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial, it is warmer now and mostly dry. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.713 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2230, 2190, and 2160 March, with resistance at 2280, 2300, and 2370 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1600 March, with resistance at 1720, 1740, and 1750 March.