About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. November Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Feb 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2018—- —-Oct 2018—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 116,619,519 257,146,039 116,894,126 257,751,548
coffee, roasted 7,211,589 15,901,554 7,783,198 17,161,952
coffee, soluble
instant 4,665,444 10,287,304 4,157,767 9,167,876
-Cocoa
cocoa beans 13,896,244 30,641,218 14,327,901 31,593,022
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,289,967 5,049,377 2,631,924 5,803,392
for retail candy 720 1,588 17,346 38,248
cocoa butter 8,730,255 19,250,212 8,583,416 18,926,432
cocoa paste,
not defatted 4,019,880 8,863,835 4,384,164 9,667,082
cocoa paste
defatted 4,262,801 9,399,476 5,476,004 12,074,589
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 9,401,352 20,729,981 7,950,157 17,530,096
cocoa powder,
sweetened 110,238 243,075 116,901 257,767
confectioners
coating 3,217,830 7,095,315 3,689,138 8,134,549
candy containing
chocolate 9,969,083 21,981,828 10,350,649 22,823,181

DJ U.S. December Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Feb 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2018—- —-Oct 2018—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 116,619,519 257,146,039 116,894,126 257,751,548
coffee, roasted 7,211,589 15,901,554 7,783,198 17,161,952
coffee, soluble
instant 4,665,444 10,287,304 4,157,767 9,167,876
-Cocoa
cocoa beans 13,896,244 30,641,218 14,327,901 31,593,022
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,289,967 5,049,377 2,631,924 5,803,392
for retail candy 720 1,588 17,346 38,248
cocoa butter 8,730,255 19,250,212 8,583,416 18,926,432
cocoa paste,
not defatted 4,019,880 8,863,835 4,384,164 9,667,082
cocoa paste
defatted 4,262,801 9,399,476 5,476,004 12,074,589
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 9,401,352 20,729,981 7,950,157 17,530,096
cocoa powder,
sweetened 110,238 243,075 116,901 257,767
confectioners
coating 3,217,830 7,095,315 3,689,138 8,134,549
candy containing
chocolate 9,969,083 21,981,828 10,350,649 22,823,181

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in recovery trading as some end users used the break in futures to get some pricing done and some inventories in-house. Trends are still trying to turn down on the charts. Weak overall demand continues to impact the US market, but word of smaller supplies is providing the support. Ideas are that Cotton production can be reduced in the Friday USDA reports as some of the crop was left in the fields well into the Winter season. Demand could also be less as demand reports have not been real strong this year and as China is not reported to be buying in the US market. World production and supplies are going still lower due to bad weather in the growing season for major producers around the world, including India, Pakistan, and Australia. India and Pakistan are expected to import more Cotton this year to cover the short domestic production. China had problems with its growing weather, too, and has been forced to import a lot of Cotton this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get episodes of precipitation all week, then a dry weekend and above normal temperatures. Temperatures should be below normal this weekend. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be mostly below normal through Sunday, then mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 68.83 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 127,546 bales, from 122,025 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7270, 7220, and 7200 March, with resistance of 7400, 7480, and 7650 March.

DJ U.S. November Cotton Exports-Feb 6
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 18 Oct 18 Sep 18 Nov 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 4,849,847 2,084,292 6,769,938 3,788,599
1 to 1 1/8 inch 59,231,853 50,614,242 70,438,363 70,082,315
upland 1 1/8 and over 76,803,935 76,916,671 73,570,068 73,806,219
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 7,468,069 2,893,420 4,900,664 10,622,850
All cotton 148,353,704 132,508,625 155,679,033 158,299,983
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Nov 18 Oct 18 Sep 18 Nov 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 22,275 9,573 31,094 17,401
1 to 1 1/8 inch 272,050 232,469 323,521 321,885
upland 1 1/8 and over 352,758 353,275 337,905 338,989
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 34,301 13,289 22,509 48,790
All cotton 681,383 608,607 715,028 727,066

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 268,835
: Positions :
: 33,592 41,910 60,902 66,282 138,903 93,810 12,767 254,586 254,482: 14,249 14,353
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 4,864) :
: -1,682 8,072 3,201 4,417 -6,606 -608 835 5,328 5,502: -464 -637
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 15.6 22.7 24.7 51.7 34.9 4.7 94.7 94.7: 5.3 5.3
: Total Traders: 274 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 93 85 55 60 44 20 218 208:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on what appeared to be some follow through short covering by the funds and other speculators. A reversal higher often happens at this time of year, and a reversal or a low formation could be happening now as prices are going up and open interest is very high. The market has absorbed speculative and producer selling through the Winter as no freeze has developed. Longer range forecasts show that there is little chance for a freeze to develop this month, and then it will be getting to be too late for a freeze to be seen in the state of Florida. The Oranges harvest is active in Florida as the weather is warm and mostly dry. The fruit is abundant, but arrivals to packing houses and processors are reported behind last year. Florida producers are seeing small-sized to good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and all processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil, and some beneficial rains should be seen this week.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 114.00, and 111.00 March, with resistance at 123.00, 124.00, and 126.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 19,766 :
: Positions :
: 12,328 6,910 1,679 0 1 616 7,198 310 784 1,157 1,994 :
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 :
: 70 -135 -12 0 0 30 424 16 100 141 141 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 62.4 35.0 8.5 0.0 0.0 3.1 36.4 1.6 4.0 5.9 10.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 83 :
: 23 11 6 0 . . 26 6 13 8 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little lower as the US Dollar moved higher. London was the weaker market even with Vietnam closed for the holiday. The brazil harvest is getting close to done now. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can become about 52 million bags next year. Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by the current drought that could hurt production even more. Many areas are dry now, but showers are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest. Selling will be less this week due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.476 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 103.84 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely on Wednesday. Temperatures should be above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 103.00, 102.00, and 100.00 March, and resistance is at 107.00, 110.00 and 112.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1600, 1650, and 1670 March. Support is at 1530, 1510, and 1500 March, and resistance is at 1570, 1590, and 1610 March.

DJ ICO Coffee Price Index Climbs in January on Currency Moves
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator price rose 8.2% in January on currency moves.
The ICO composite indicator climbed to 101.56 U.S. cents a pound from 100.61 cents in December.
Prices increased for robusta and all groups of coffee. Among arabica types, Brazilian naturals inched up 0.8%, with other milds and Colombian mild prices up 1.1%. Robusta beans gained 0.9%.
The arbitrage between low-grade robusta and its higher-quality peer increased by 3.9%, while intraday volatility slipped to 6%, the ICO said in a report.
“The strengthening of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar in January 2019, particularly since the depreciation in September 2018, lent support to coffee prices this past month,” the ICO said.
“Additionally, increased shipments in the first quarter of coffee year 2018/19 indicate that demand remains strong. In the first three months of 2018/19, total exports increased by 8.1% to 30.91 million bags,” the organization added.
London-traded robusta was last up 0.07% at $1,536 a ton, while arabica was down 0.14% at $1.05 a pound.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 325,676
: Positions :
: 24,660 89,803 83,208 134,863 117,587 65,323 26,930 308,054 317,527: 17,623 8,149
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 2,768) :
: -421 814 1,652 1,246 645 220 -35 2,696 3,075: 71 -308
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 27.6 25.5 41.4 36.1 20.1 8.3 94.6 97.5: 5.4 2.5
: Total Traders: 460 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 123 126 128 140 113 44 27 375 339:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were a little higher. The daily charts show that trends are trying to turn up again. Most analysts are still looking for surplus supplies, but the market acts as if it needs Sugar right now. Brazil has been producing ethanol and has reduced Sugar offers this year, and the market acts as if it needs a little more Sugar. Analysts say that there is plenty of Sugar around and another surplus is expected, but the price action is stronger than the analyst comments might suggest.. There are doubts on just how much production will be seen this year in India. Northwest India had been experiencing hot and dry weather that could cut yields. Dry conditions continue in northern Brazil and there are frequent rains in Rio Grande do Sul. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but the next production could be less as farmers might switch to other crops due to low prices for Sugarcane.
Overnight News: Brazil will mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Wednesday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1220 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1310, and 1330 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 334.00, 331.00, and 328.00 March, and resistance is at 348.00, 351.00, and 353.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,039,248
: Positions :
: 78,989 174,544 209,042 372,791 524,921 295,021 57,909 955,842 966,414: 83,406 72,834
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 9,616) :
: -926 16,914 -3,823 17,715 -6,550 486 2,469 13,452 9,010: -3,836 605
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 16.8 20.1 35.9 50.5 28.4 5.6 92.0 93.0: 8.0 7.0
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 66 78 82 75 34 24 211 206:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying and on ideas that the market had become oversold and that Cocoa prices were too cheap. Funds have been the best buyers and could buy for one more day today. The outlook for strong production in the coming year is still around, and ports are said to have plenty of Cocoa on offer. The main crop harvest is active in West Africa, and Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.376 million tons, up about 9% from last year. Harmattan winds and hot and dry conditions have moved into West Africa. The winds have stayed to the north of primary production areas so far this season. These conditions can take moisture out of the soil very rapidly and cause some very significant stress on the trees, but so far the winds have not been a problem. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase. Cumulative arrivals in Brazil are now 198,900 tons, from 179,246 tons last year.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.671 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2150 March, with resistance at 2230, 2280, and 2300 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1650, 1600, and 1570 March, with resistance at 1680, 1700, and 1720 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 290,032
: Positions :
: 37,859 42,287 59,434 114,582 157,295 64,424 20,627 276,299 279,642: 13,733 10,389
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 15,942) :
: 1,784 -5,711 6,943 3,938 14,069 2,423 -81 15,089 15,220: 854 722
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 14.6 20.5 39.5 54.2 22.2 7.1 95.3 96.4: 4.7 3.6
: Total Traders: 214 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 53 67 44 45 34 16 179 152:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322