About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: USDA U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of acres for 2019-20 U.S. winter wheat that was planted in October and November, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its report at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2019-20 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Average Range USDA 2018-19
All Winter Wheat 32.0 31.5 – 33.2 32.5
Hard Red Winter 22.5 21.9 – 23.6 22.9
Soft Red Winter 5.9 5.6 – 6.2 6.1
White Winter 3.5 3.2 – 4.0 3.5
All Winter Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Advanced Market 31.7 22.3 5.9 3.5
Agrivisor 32.0 22.6 5.9 3.5
Allendale 32.0 22.3 6.2 3.5
Citizens LLC 32.0
DC Analysis 31.9 22.6 6.0 3.3
EDFMan Capital 32.3 22.7 6.2 3.4
Farm Futures 31.6 22.8 5.6 3.2
Futures INTL 32.5 22.9 6.1 3.5
Hueber Report 32.1 22.6 6.0 3.5
INTL FCStone 31.6 22.3 5.7 3.6
Sid Love Consulting 31.5 22.3 5.8 3.5
Price Group 31.7 21.9 6.2 3.6
Prime-Ag 32.0
RJ O’Brien 31.9 22.4 6.0 3.5
U.S. Commodities 32.5 22.7 5.9 3.4
Western Milling 32.0 22.2 5.8 4.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 33.2 23.6 5.9 3.6

DJ Survey: Dec. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for December 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2018 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range Sept. 2018 Dec. 2017
Corn 12,117 11,940 – 12,699 2,140 12,567
Soybeans 3,687 3,161 – 3,850 438 3,161
Wheat 1,952 1,873 – 2,005 2,379 1,873
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 12,025 3,850 2,005
Agrivisor 11,975 3,805 1,965
Allendale 12,079 3,781 1,973
Citizens LLC 12,125 3,450 1,910
DC Analysis 12,009 3,825 1,974
EDFMan Capital 12,699 3,400 1,900
Farm Futures 12,000 3,719 1,957
Futures INTL 12,567 3,161 1,873
Hueber Report 12,050 3,414 1,945
INTL FCStone 12,144 3,834 1,967
Sid Love Consul 11,940 3,800 2,003
Price Group 12,012 3,725 1,924
Prime-Ag 12,200 3,800 1,975
RJ O’Brien 12,071 3,768 1,973
U.S. Commoditie 11,979 3,770 1,964
Western Milling 12,001 3,841 1,910
Zaner Ag Hedge 12,107 3,737 1,959

DJ February Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA January USDA 2017-18
Corn 93.3 91.5-95.5 N/A 82.0
Soybeans 116.3 112.2-119.0 N/A 120.3
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 93.0 118.0
Allendale 93.0 118.5
Citizens LLC 94.5 117.0
DC Analysis 93.0 117.0
Doane 92.0 115.5
Farm Futures 93.0 115.0
Hueber Report 91.5 116.5
INTL FCStone 92.4 112.2
North Star 92.0 115.0
Price Group 94.0 115.0
Prime Ag 95.0 118.0
US Commodities 93.5 116.8
Western Milling 94.0 115.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 95.5 119.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA January USDA 2017-18
Corn 43.1 41.0-45.0 N/A 32.0
Soybeans 55.0 52.0-56.0 N/A 37.8
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 44.5 55.0
Allendale 42.0 54.5
Citizens LLC 43.0 54.5
DC Analysis 42.5 52.0
Doane 41.0 54.0
Farm Futures 44.0 55.0
Hueber Report 41.5 55.5
INTL FCStone 43.0 56.0
North Star 42.0 54.0
Price Group 44.0 56.0
Prime Ag 45.0 56.0
US Commodities 42.7 56.0
Western Milling 44.0 56.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 44.0 55.5

DJ World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World 2018-19 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
USDA
Average Range December
Corn 307.5 305.0-311.6 308.8
Soybeans 113.9 109.0-122.6 115.3
Wheat 268.0 266.0-269.7 268.1
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 306.0 117.0 267.0
Allendale 308.9 111.9 269.5
Citizens LLC 305.9 112.5 266.0
Doane 306.0 111.0 266.0
EDF Man 310.0 117.0 268.0
Farm Futures 305.0 109.0 267.9
Hueber Report 307.5 111.1 267.0
INTL FCStone 311.6 122.6 269.5
Northstar 306.0 113.0 267.0
Prime-Ag 308.0 112.0 268.0
RMC 308.6 115.0 268.1
US Commodities 306.9 114.1 269.1
Western Milling 307.0 114.0 269.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 307.1 114.4 269.7

DJ U.S. Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. 2018-19 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA
Average Range December 2017-18
Corn 1,714 1,550-1,858 1,781 2,140
Soybeans 920 800-996 955 438
Wheat 993 950-1,031 974 1,099
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,735 900 1,005
AgriSource 1,550 925 974
Agrivisor 1,678 894 974
Allendale 1,787 971 993
Citizens LLC 1,730 965 974
DC Analysis 1,675 867 1,018
Doane 1,725 890 995
EDF Man 1,740 920 958
Farm Futures 1,684 880 1,028
Hueber Report 1,683 930 974
INTL FCStone 1,858 920 1,013
Sid Love Consulting 1,621 898 980
Northstar 1,708 905 995
Price Group 1,658 800 1,019
Prime-Ag 1,725 945 999
RJ O’Brien 1,840 996 1,031
RMC 1,779 950 974
US Commodities 1,766 960 950
Vantage RM 1,700 910 990
Western Milling 1,660 917 1,015
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,699 969 984

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels) USDA
Average Range December 2017-2018
Corn Production 14,509 14,363-14,602 14,626 14,604
Corn Yield 177.6 175.9-178.5 178.9 176.6
Harvested Acres 81.7 81.4-81.8 81.8 82.7
Soybean Production 4,558 4,490-4,592 4,600 4,411
Soybean Yield 51.7 51.0-52.0 52.1 49.3
Harvested Acres 88.2 87.4-88.5 88.3 89.5
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Harvested Production Yield Harvested
Acres
Advanced Market 14,560 178.0 81.8 4,552 51.5 88.3
AgriSource 14,363 175.9 81.7 4,510 51.1 88.3
Agrivisor 14,470 177.4 81.6 4,569 51.8 88.2
Allendale 14,602 178.5 81.8 4,576 51.7 88.5
Citizens LLC 14,430 177.0 81.5 4,490 51.0 88.0
DC Analysis 14,552 177.9 81.8 4,583 51.9 88.3
Doane 14,550 177.9 81.8 4,565 51.8 88.2
EDF Man 14,507 178.0 81.5 4,563 51.8 88.1
Farm Futures 14,423 177.2 81.4 4,505 51.6 87.4
Hueber Report 14,532 177.7 81.8 4,583 51.9 88.3
INTL FCStone 14,578 178.3 81.8 4,566 51.7 88.3
Sid Love Consulting 14,466 177.5 81.5 4,583 51.8 87.7
North Star 14,503 177.3 81.8 4,582 51.9 88.3
Price Group 14,503 177.4 81.8 4,555 51.6 88.3
Prime-Ag 14,560 178.0 81.8 4,592 52.0 88.3
RJ O’Brien 14,555 178.0 N/A 4,585 51.9 N/A
RMC 14,552 177.9 81.8 4,556 51.6 88.3
US Commodities 14,454 176.7 81.8 4,560 51.7 88.2
Vantage RM 14,503 177.5 81.7 4,546 51.5 88.3
Western Milling 14,525 178.0 81.6 4,537 51.5 88.1
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,494 177.4 81.7 4,564 51.8 88.1

DJ U.S. November Grain Imports-Feb 6
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2018—- —-Oct 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 2,943,548 6,490,523 1,782,318 3,930,011
spring wheat 5,002,312 11,030,098 8,305,741 18,314,159
winter wheat 6,146,390 13,552,790 43,474,393 95,861,037
wheat/meslin 23,061,285 50,850,133 13,243,712 29,202,385
TOTAL WHEAT 37,153,535 81,923,545 66,806,164 147,307,592
barley 6,692,468 14,756,892 3,202,949 7,062,503
oats 162,150 357,541 243,029 535,879
corn 20,558,742 45,332,026 75,457,846 166,384,550
other corn 4,612,966 10,171,590 4,342,311 9,574,796
TOTAL CORN 25,171,708 55,503,616 79,800,157 175,959,346

DJ U.S. Nov Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Feb 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2018—- —-Oct 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 29,046,596 64,047,744 47,773,654 105,340,907
palm kernel oil 14,939,065 32,940,638 31,732,567 69,970,310
palm oil 124,243,487 273,956,889 113,959,953 251,281,696
soybean 48,110,040 106,082,638 17,802,750 39,255,064
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 16,045,787 35,380,960 16,057,506 35,406,801
rapeseed oil
edible 123,192,528 271,639,524 137,008,059 302,102,770
rapeseed oil,
inedible 276 609 56,313 124,170

DJ U.S. November Grain Exports-Feb 6
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 18 Oct 18 Sep 18 Nov 17(*)
Barley 4,680,912 2,771,962 2,929,000 3,605,428
Corn /1 5,104,748,000 5,694,689,000 5,255,568,000 2,594,626,000
Sorghum 227,512,000 103,669,000 73,155,000 637,792,000
Oats 1,609,374 1,343,819 2,430,834 2,633,243
Rye 13,000 20,412 630,908 101,000
Wheat /1 1,755,479,922 1,909,732,950 1,847,652,914 1,397,094,442
wheat flour /1 23,473,082 26,840,620 25,047,393 16,732,702
Malt 38,266,263 39,375,480 34,389,121 38,306,618
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Nov 18 Oct 18 Sep 18 Nov 17(*)
Barley 214,990 127,314 134,527 165,594
Corn /1 200,962,989 224,187,702 206,900,449 102,144,865
Sorghum 8,956,660 4,081,226 2,879,956 25,108,504
Oats 110,876 92,581 167,469 181,414
Rye 512 804 24,837 3,976
Wheat /1 64,502,183 70,169,954 67,888,926 51,333,906
wheat flour /1 517,493 591,734 552,201 368,893
Malt 84,362,684 86,808,089 75,815,047 84,451,651
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. November Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Feb 6
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 18 Oct 18 Sep 18 Nov 17(*)
soybeans 5,066,985,020 5,580,266,278 3,237,330,427 9,032,416,013
soy oil 97,906,583 66,280,543 55,188,088 59,877,675
crude 88,320,359 55,756,858 41,653,346 41,848,689
refined 165,614 92,113 82,871 208,519
other/1 9,039,986 10,200,267 13,184,233 17,618,312
hydrogenated 380,624 231,305 267,638 202,155
cottonseed oil 6,242,842 6,015,806 1,883,489 3,709,126
crude 81,095 12,943 73,422 97,344
refined 4,890,129 4,993,491 791,737 2,746,100
other/1 1,268,760 1,009,372 1,018,330 865,682
hydrogenated 2,858 0 0 0
sunseeds 56,823 19,474 19,619 162,836
sunseed oil 4,063,074 4,700,414 3,874,096 2,444,900
rapeseed 17,769,686 43,390,574 25,286,358 26,042,999
rapeseed oil 9,496,168 5,038,251 9,868,291 8,593,882
crude 5,804,738 943,746 4,522,333 1,866,587
refined 3,691,430 4,094,505 5,345,958 6,727,295
linseed meal 100,131 195,985 264,390 220,593
cottonseed meal 6,331,677 6,734,306 6,067,990 5,261,215
soymeal 790,036,891 777,632,699 822,935,166 805,972,547
soymeal/flour 247,564,609 221,279,737 213,621,344 195,890,936
soymeal hulls 14,282,000 6,962,000 16,529,000 10,000,000
lard 1,775,270 1,994,532 1,113,281 1,876,203
edible tallow 11,048,612 12,458,874 8,579,447 11,464,248
inedible tallow 30,889,157 21,081,030 24,181,430 23,106,613
ch white grease 0 13,104 11,951 341,350
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Nov 18 Oct 18 Sep 18 Nov 17(*)
soybeans 186,177,918 205,037,582 118,950,310 331,881,069
soy oil 215,847,105 146,123,610 121,668,928 132,007,699
crude 194,713,095 122,922,852 91,829,925 92,260,582
refined 365,116 203,074 182,699 459,706
other/1 19,929,761 22,487,743 29,066,263 38,841,736
hydrogenated 839,132 509,940 590,041 445,676
cottonseed oil 13,763,113 13,262,584 4,152,383 8,177,224
crude 178,784 28,534 161,868 214,607
refined 10,780,891 11,008,765 1,745,482 6,054,115
other/1 2,797,137 2,225,285 2,245,034 1,908,502
hydrogenated 6,301 0 0 0
sunseeds 125,273 42,933 43,252 358,992
sunseed oil 8,957,546 10,362,641 8,540,921 5,390,083
rapeseed 39,175,458 95,659,857 55,746,886 57,414,995
rapeseed oil 20,935,470 11,107,444 21,755,861 18,946,270
crude 12,797,259 2,080,604 9,970,039 4,115,121
refined 8,138,211 9,026,840 11,785,822 14,831,149
linseed meal 110 216 291 243
cottonseed meal 6,979 7,423 6,689 5,799
soymeal 870,858 857,185 907,121 888,424
soymeal flour/me 272,890 243,917 235,475 215,931
soymeal hulls 15,743 7,674 18,220 11,023
lard 3,913,801 4,397,191 2,454,365 4,136,320
edible tallow 24,358,024 27,467,120 18,914,446 25,274,345
inedible tallow 68,098,946 46,475,724 53,310,937 50,941,370
ch white grease 0 28,889 26,347 752,548

DJ USDA Says 586,000 Tons Of Soybeans Sold To China Today
WASHINGTON, (Dow Jones)–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 586,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total, 523,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year and 63,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began September 1. USDA issues both daily and weekly export sales to the public. U.S. exporters are required to report to USDA any export sales activity of 100,000 metric tons or more of one commodity made in one day. Sales totaling 200,000 tons or more in any reporting period, except soybean oil, made in one day to one destination, must be reported by 3:00 p.m. eastern time on the next business day. Export sales of less than these quantities must be reported to USDA on a weekly basis.

DJ USDA 182,000 Tons Of Soybeans Sold To Unknown In 2018-19 Today
WASHINGTON, (Dow Jones)–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 182,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year, the USDA said Wednesday.
The 2018/2019 marketing year for soybeans began September 1.
USDA issues both daily and weekly export sales to the public. U.S. exporters are required to report to USDA any export sales activity of 100,000 metric tons or more of one commodity made in one day. Sales totaling 200,000 tons or more in any reporting period, except soybean oil, made in one day to one destination, must be reported by 3:00 p.m. eastern time on the next business day. Export sales of less than these quantities must be reported to USDA on a weekly basis.

Alerts History Yesterday
• 04-Feb-2019 02:21:34 PM – USDA SAYS 5.34 MILLION TONS OF U.S. SOYBEANS CRUSHED IN NOVEMBER
USDA SAYS 5.34 MILLION TONS OF U.S. SOYBEANS CRUSHED IN NOVEMBER – Reuters News
Soybeans crushed in November was 5.343 mt versus 5.506 mt a month ago; 5.200 mt a year ago
178 mil bu (177.0 mil estimated) versus 183.5 mil a month ago, 173.3 mil a year ago
Soyoil stocks 1.900 bil lbs (2.030 bil estimated); 2.047 bil a month ago; 1.690 bil a year ago
Alerts History
• 04-Feb-2019 02:20:48 PM – USDA SAYS 454.5 MILLION BUSHELS OF CORN USED FOR FUEL ALCOHOL IN NOVEMBER, DOWN FROM 475.7 MILLION A YEAR AGO
• 04-Feb-2019 02:20:48 PM – USDA SAYS 1.930 MILLION TONS OF DDGS PRODUCED IN NOVEMBER, DOWN FROM 1.997 MILLION A YEAR AGO
USDA SAYS 1.930 MILLION TONS OF DDGS PRODUCED IN NOVEMBER, DOWN FROM 1.997 MILLION A YEAR AGO – Reuters News
Corn crush in November 504 mil bu versus 511 mil a month ago; 525 mil a year ago
Corn use for alcohol 454 mil bu versus 460 a month ago; 475 mil a year ago
DDG’s produced 1.930 mt versus 1.969 mt a month ago; 1.996 mt a year ago

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were a little higher yesterday and continue to hold a range trade overall. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. The Wheat Seedings Report could show less planted area than expected due to wet conditions in the Great Plains and Midwest at planting time for Winter Wheat. Traders were also keeping an eye on the weather as extreme and possibly record cold invaded the US Midwest last week. The SRW crop was at risk, especially in areas with little or no snow cover. Temperatures are staring to moderate, but it could take a while for the damage to show as it is still Winter and the crop is dormant. World prices have continued to firm over the last few weeks, and the US price has held or improved only slightly.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some mixed precipitation this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see frequent chances for precipitation this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 520, 518, and 511 March, with resistance at 529, 530, and 538 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 504, 499, and 492 March, with resistance at 518, 524, and 527 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 574, 570, and 567 March, and resistance is at 582, 584, and 587 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 542,214
: Positions :
: 68,534 128,798 152,998 106,250 158,295 174,671 56,064 502,453 496,155: 39,761 46,059
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 20,787) :
: 1,542 14,682 4,447 13,283 1,044 -2,559 1,002 16,713 21,175: 4,074 -388
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 23.8 28.2 19.6 29.2 32.2 10.3 92.7 91.5: 7.3 8.5
: Total Traders: 403 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 124 134 97 107 47 24 323 316:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 315,588
: Positions :
: 65,337 80,590 66,635 84,687 130,632 69,786 16,624 286,444 294,480: 29,144 21,109
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 7,673) :
: -594 5,523 1,117 6,821 1,395 81 240 7,425 8,275: 248 -602
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.7 25.5 21.1 26.8 41.4 22.1 5.3 90.8 93.3: 9.2 6.7
: Total Traders: 280 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 59 71 81 95 33 13 210 213:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 17,784 :
: Positions :
: 8,927 15,310 1,094 400 500 6,235 0 0 350 500 100 :
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 :
: 0 -42 12 0 0 3 0 0 -43 0 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 50.2 86.1 6.1 2.2 2.8 35.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.8 0.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 25 :
: 10 12 . . . . 0 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 64,016 :
: Positions :
: 34,862 24,112 2,063 0 40 5,122 16,280 2,041 4,753 6,765 2,859 :
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 :
: 2,795 -1,472 191 0 40 -948 2,883 238 -38 -456 -122 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.5 37.7 3.2 0.0 0.1 8.0 25.4 3.2 7.4 10.6 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 88 :
: 42 30 5 0 . 6 11 5 7 7 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again yesterday. Trade action for the last week has been slow, but there has been more buying interest than anything. Producer selling is still hard to find. Demand from the mills is said to be quiet, but export demand should be solid as US prices are competitive into Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Basis levels remain generally firm in Arkansas, but are weak in Texas. The Arkansas market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Basis levels have shown some weakness near the Gulf coast due to light demand. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time, and prices are too cheap for them right now. South American weather has not been good for growing Rice, and internal prices there have not interested producers. The weather is a problem in the US as it has been too wet near the Gulf Coast for producers to begin fieldwork.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1059, 1049, and 1042 March, with resistance at 1083, 1089, and 1093 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 6
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.20 8.50 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.89 8.65 0.00
Brokens 7.96 —- —-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 7,537 :
: Positions :
: 5,150 3,037 218 0 0 0 3,059 0 770 3 190 :
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 :
: -346 -852 67 0 0 0 597 0 67 -3 -27 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 68.3 40.3 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.6 0.0 10.2 0.0 2.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 46 :
: 13 11 . 0 0 0 12 0 8 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher again yesterday. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on Friday. The Corn data for last year is expected to show reduced production. Demand could be a little weaker as well, especially with the current weakness in the ethanol market. It remains dry and hot in central and northern Brazil, but the weather patterns are starting to change and feature at least some showers in important Winter Corn growing areas. The Soybeans harvest is expanding in Mato Grosso and Parana, and farmers will be ready to plant the winter Corn once the Soybeans are out. The harvest pace and planting pace have been ahead of normal there and also in Parana. Trends are currently sideways on the daily charts and sideways on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 289, 284, and 280 March, and resistance is at 294, 296, and 300 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,880,756
: Positions :
: 238,753 236,952 436,920 552,464 856,282 440,633 132,749 1,668,771 1,662,904: 211,986 217,853
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 23,888) :
: -8,463 24,077 17,124 8,506 -19,281 1,961 5,415 19,128 27,336: 4,761 -3,447
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 12.6 23.2 29.4 45.5 23.4 7.1 88.7 88.4: 11.3 11.6
: Total Traders: 823 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 169 139 205 343 369 47 26 660 660:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,327 :
: Positions :
: 936 3,468 153 0 0 814 115 0 1,254 579 277 :
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 :
: 37 -210 4 0 0 -369 0 0 14 2 129 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.6 65.1 2.9 0.0 0.0 15.3 2.2 0.0 23.5 10.9 5.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30 :
: 9 10 . 0 0 7 . 0 6 . 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little higher and Soybean Meal was a little lower yesterday. China has bought over 3.2 million tons of US Soybeans for state reserves, but prices did not react that much. The hot and dry weather in Brazil is still causing production estimates there to drop, but the market has not really reacted much to that news, either. US Soybean Meal supplies should be increasing as crusher look to produce Soybean Oil due to higher prices in that product, and Soybean Meal trends are starting to turn down. There are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. USDA will release the January reports along with the February reports on Friday. Soybeans remain a weather market. South American weather remains too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. These weather trends are finally starting to change, but it is too late to help most Soybeans in Brazil. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso. Private Brazil production estimates range from about 110 million tons to about 115 million tons. The crop is now about 20% harvested in Brazil, from 6% average for this date.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 914, 909, and 906 March, and resistance is at 924, 928, and 931 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 305.00 March, and resistance is at 312.00, 314.00, and 316.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2970, 2950, and 2910 March, with resistance at 3050, 3060, and 3070 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 767,589
: Positions :
: 56,804 125,608 180,261 296,644 329,557 177,544 38,859 711,252 674,285: 56,337 93,304
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: -33,705) :
: -2,282 3,670 -2,205 -19,714 -28,365 -3,243 63 -27,444 -26,837: -6,261 -6,867
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.4 16.4 23.5 38.6 42.9 23.1 5.1 92.7 87.8: 7.3 12.2
: Total Traders: 605 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 109 161 184 191 229 43 27 455 516:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 497,575
: Positions :
: 61,107 110,147 126,803 158,501 217,446 115,154 13,675 461,565 468,071: 36,010 29,504
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 4,615) :
: 3,567 4,597 -1,606 938 -1,510 1,609 2,566 4,508 4,046: 107 569
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 22.1 25.5 31.9 43.7 23.1 2.7 92.8 94.1: 7.2 5.9
: Total Traders: 332 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 87 108 82 74 37 19 258 251:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 453,318
: Positions :
: 49,225 51,823 95,348 147,920 245,283 105,634 22,184 398,127 414,638: 55,191 38,680
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: -8,712) :
: -110 -6,686 1,444 -8,310 -2,435 -654 -843 -7,630 -8,520: -1,082 -192
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 11.4 21.0 32.6 54.1 23.3 4.9 87.8 91.5: 12.2 8.5
: Total Traders: 282 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 58 93 91 81 35 14 244 208:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower in response to higher than expected stocks levels as announced by StatsCan yesterday. Speculators were the best sellers. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Palm Oil was closed for the long Lunar New Year holiday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 480.00, 474.00, and 471.00 March, with resistance at 486.00, 489.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 April. Support is at 2270, 2250, and 2230 April, with resistance at 2330, 2340, and 2350 April.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 177,294 :
: Positions :
: 110,333 74,998 2,730 1,166 178 31,193 65,396 12,996 8,381 11,059 10,259 :
: Changes from: December 24, 2018 :
: 4,272 4,224 986 257 9 121 602 77 170 422 265 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 62.2 42.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 17.6 36.9 7.3 4.7 6.2 5.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 196 :
: 22 26 . . . 4 53 10 38 53 19 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation off and on all week, then a mostly dry weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal this week and mostly below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 58 March 162 March 94 March 30 March Price
March 57 March 94 March 30 March
April 50 May 75 May 18 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
February
March 45 March -12 March
April 48 May -18 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 4
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 466.40 up 1.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 498.90 up 1.50
2 Can 485.90 up 1.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 513.90 up 1.50
2 Can 500.90 up 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322