About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 4
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 31, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/31/2019 01/24/2019 02/01/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 637 6,534 19,847
CORN 901,214 968,585 1,093,241 22,466,231 14,890,398
FLAXSEED 0 0 24 218 4,697
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 200 0 100 1,993 8,386
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 24,157 7,605 196,455 596,360 2,334,949
SOYBEANS 975,775 943,480 1,304,506 21,452,986 34,712,374
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 440,031 367,604 429,602 14,821,995 16,644,151
Total 2,341,377 2,287,274 3,024,565 59,346,317 68,614,826
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ USDA Reports Soybean Export Sale of 2.6M Tons to China — Market Talk
10:22 ET – The USDA has reported an export sale of 2.6M metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2018/19 marketing year, as well as sales of an additional 274,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. Combined with yesterday, the USDA has confirmed 3.2M tons of soybeans to be exported to China this week. Confirmation of the export sales comes following talk last week that China had committed to buying an additional 5M tons of US soybeans for its state reserves during trade discussions between the US and China held in Washington. Soybean futures on the CBOT haven’t reacted positively to the news, with March futures trading down 0.3% so far this morning. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks As Of Dec. 31, 2018 – StatsCan – Feb 5
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oilseed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of Dec. 31, 2018, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31
2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017
Barley 4,642 5,753 296 280 4,938 6,033
Canola 13,395 12,598 1,158 1,271 14,553 13,869
Corn 8,523 9,460 2,979 2,960 11,502 12,420
Flaxseed 310 441 46 80 356 521
Lentils 1,897 1,995 197 116 2,094 2,111
Oats 2,097 2,693 220 190 2,316 2,883
Dry peas 2,146 2,549 356 274 2,502 2,823
All rye 125 304 14 31 139 335
Soybeans 2,583 2,965 1,411 1,400 3,994 4,365
All wheat 19,143 19,537 4,090 3,746 23,233 23,283
Durum wheat 4,485 4,100 843 634 5,328 4,734
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were a little higher yesterday and continue to hold a range trade overall. Futures rallied on Friday on news that Ethiopia had tendered for 450,000 tons of world Wheat and that US Wheat would be considered and would be price competitive. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. The Wheat Seedings Report could show less planted area than expected due to wet conditions in the Great Plains and Midwest at planting time for Winter Wheat. Traders were also keeping an eye on the weather as extreme and possibly record cold invaded the US Midwest last week. The SRW crop was at risk, especially in areas with little or no snow cover. Temperatures are staring to moderate, but it could take a while for the damage to show as it is still Winter and the crop is dormant. World prices have continued to firm over the last few weeks, and the US price has held or improved only slightly.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some mixed precipitation this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see frequent chances for precipitation this week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 518, 511, and 509 March, with resistance at 529, 530, and 538 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 504, 499, and 492 March, with resistance at 518, 524, and 527 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 576, 570, and 567 March, and resistance is at 582, 584, and 587 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again yesterday. Demand from the mills is said to be quiet, but export demand should be solid as US prices are competitive into Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Basis levels remain generally firm in Arkansas, but are weak in Texas. The Arkansas market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Basis levels have shown some weakness near the Gulf coast due to light demand. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time, and prices are too cheap for them right now. South American weather has not been good for growing Rice, and internal prices there have not interested producers. Ideas are that production will be less in Mercosur again this year. The weather is a problem in the US as it has been too wet near the Gulf Coast for producers to begin fieldwork. Texas will get more rain later this week, and the Delta should get some mixed precipitation.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1059, 1049, and 1042 March, with resistance at 1083, 1089, and 1093 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher yesterday in good volume trading. Oats were also lower for the week. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on Friday. The Corn data for last year is expected to show reduced production. Demand could be a little weaker as well, especially with the current weakness in the ethanol market. It remains dry and hot in central and northern Brazil, but the weather patterns are starting to change and feature at least some showers in important Winter Corn growing areas. The Soybeans harvest is expanding in Mato Grosso and Parana, and farmers will be ready to plant the winter Corn once the Soybeans are out. The harvest pace and planting pace have been ahead of normal there and also in Parana. The Corn market still finds increased selling interest when prices try to get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Trends are currently sideways on the daily charts and sideways on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 274 and 270 March. Support is at 289, 284, and 280 March, and resistance is at 294, 296, and 300 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little higher and Soybean Meal was a little lower yesterday. China has apparently bought about 2.0 million tons of US Soybeans for state reserves, but prices did not react that much after the failure on Friday. The hot and dry weather in Brazil is still causing production estimates there to drop, but the market has not really reacted much to that news, either. Trends are sideways on the weekly charts for these markets, and the fundamentals of big supplies might keep rallies in check. US Soybean Meal supplies should be increasing as crusher look to produce Soybean Oil due to higher prices in that product, and Soybean Meal trends are starting to turn down. There are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. USDA will release the January reports along with the February reports on Friday. Soybeans remain a weather market. South American weather remains too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. These weather trends are finally starting to change, but it is too late to help most Soybeans in Brazil. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso. Private Brazil production estimates range from about 110 million tons to about 115 million tons. The crop is now about 20% harvested in Brazil, from 6% average for this date.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 909, 906, and 900 March, and resistance is at 924, 928, and 931 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 305.00 March, and resistance is at 314.00, 316.00, and 317.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2970, 2950, and 2910 March, with resistance at 3030, 3050, and 3060 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher in sympathy with Soybean Oil and on weakness in the Canadian Dollar. Speculators were the best buyers but could not push prices too far as cash market supplies are high. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Palm Oil was closed for the long Lunar New Year holiday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 480.00, 474.00, and 471.00 March, with resistance at 486.00, 489.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 April. Support is at 2270, 2250, and 2230 April, with resistance at 2330, 2340, and 2350 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be near to above normal this week and mostly below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 58 March 160 March 94 March 30 March 2 March
March 58 March 94 March 20 March
April 51 May 75 May 21 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
February
March 50 March -12 March
April 50 May -18 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 4
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 466.40 up 1.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 498.90 up 1.50
2 Can 485.90 up 1.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 513.90 up 1.50
2 Can 500.90 up 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322