About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week and trends are sideways on the daily and the weekly charts. Weak overall demand continues to impact the US market, but word of smaller supplies is providing the support. USDA showed good export demand on its first weekly export sales report since the shutdown, but the data was deemed too old to offer any support to prices. USDA will catch up with the weekly data by late this month and will release the January data along with the February data at the end of this week. Ideas are that Cotton production can be reduced as some of the crop was left in the fields well into the Winter season. US producers report that there is still a lot of Cotton out in the fields to be harvested, and the quality of the fiber is going down. At least some of the unharvested crop might have to be abandoned. World production and supplies are going still lower due to bad weather in the growing season for major producers around the world, including India, Pakistan, and Australia. India and Pakistan are expected to import more Cotton this year to cover the short domestic production. China had problems with its growing weather, too, and has been forced to import a lot of Cotton this year. Demand for US Cotton has been disappointing. China has not bought any US Cotton this year and has been active in other markets, especially India. The US has had disputes this year with other major importers such as Turkey, and this could impact demand for the US. US prices are down and China might start to look at the US crop, but there have been worries about the quality of the US crop due to some extreme growing conditions in Texas and the Southeast over the Summer and Fall. Ideas are that the quality worries have kept some importers of US Cotton away from the market.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get episodes of precipitation all week and above normal temperatures. Temperatures should be below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather through Wednesday, then mixed precipitation. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 69.07 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 122,208 bales, from 117,208 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 7300, 7280, and 7220 March, with resistance of 7460, 7650, and 7720 March.

DJ USDA Volume of Cotton Classed Report – Feb 1
Data quoted in bales for week ending Jan 31. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 80,721 3,951,591 Southwest 193,235 6,784,036
NC 1,503 698,683 Okla 28,560 415,032
SC 4,799 350,918 Texas 157,337 6,289,234
Ga 59,246 1,860,011 Kansas 7,338 79,770
Ala 10,577 779,608
Fla 1,997 79,769 Far West 36,937 505,007
Va 2,599 182,602 NM* – 33,578
Ariz 26,591 302,270
Delta 26,857 4,514,686 Calif 10,346 169,159
Miss 14,288 1,371,226
Tenn* – 760,938 Pima 29,022 621,336
Mo* – 754,863 Other 0 0
Ark 12,029 1,214,508 Total US 366,772 16,376,656
La 540 413,151 pct tenderable 53.6 65.7

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 263,971 :
: Positions :
: 43,743 126,622 66,078 7,419 20,619 43,130 27,127 33,922 16,085 7,590 25,682 :
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 :
: 1,369 -20,680 2,772 1,331 -978 -5,205 12,895 1,099 -1,381 723 -471 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.6 48.0 25.0 2.8 7.8 16.3 10.3 12.9 6.1 2.9 9.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 268 :
: 48 53 22 4 17 50 55 52 44 26 36 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on Friday, and higher for the week in reversal trading. Trends are now sideways on the weekly charts. A reversal higher often happens at this time of year. The market has absorbed speculative long liquidation and producer selling through the Winter as no freeze has developed. Longer range forecasts show that there is little chance for a freeze to develop this month, and then it will be getting to be too late for a freeze to be seen in the state of Florida. The Oranges harvest is active in Florida as the weather is warm and mostly dry. The fruit is abundant, but arrivals to packing houses and processors are reported behind last year. Florida producers are seeing small-sized to good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and all processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil, and some beneficial rains should be seen this week.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry weather. Temperatures will average below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 116.00 March. Support is at 117.00, 114.00, and 111.00 March, with resistance at 123.00, 124.00, and 126.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 19,239 :
: Positions :
: 12,258 7,045 1,691 0 1 585 6,774 295 684 1,016 1,853 :
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 :
: 250 -518 163 0 0 86 334 95 -3 195 -1,039 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 63.7 36.6 8.8 0.0 0.0 3.0 35.2 1.5 3.6 5.3 9.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 78 :
: 23 10 6 0 . . 25 6 9 9 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower on Friday and lower for the week in both New York and London. New York failed once again to turn trends up, but prices still held the recent trading range. Weekly chart trends are sideways in London. Brazil should be getting past the gut slot of its harvest, and the strong export pace from the country should start to turn down. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can become about 52 million bags next year. El Nino is fading, but remains in the forecast, and Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by drought that could hurt production even more. Many areas are dry now, but showers are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest. Selling will be less this week due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.485 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 102.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 103.00, 102.00, and 100.00 March, and resistance is at 107.00, 110.00 and 112.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1530, 1510, and 1500 March, and resistance is at 1590, 1610, and 1630 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 322,908
: Positions :
: 25,081 88,989 81,556 133,618 116,942 65,103 26,966 305,357 314,452: 17,551 8,457
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 (Change in open interest: 4,422) :
: -953 2,055 1,813 2,885 -903 -862 92 2,883 3,056: 1,539 1,366
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 27.6 25.3 41.4 36.2 20.2 8.4 94.6 97.4: 5.4 2.6
: Total Traders: 457 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 118 128 124 139 111 45 25 372 331:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/29/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
140,019 79,894 63,166 11,719 4,103 2,820
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.1% 45.1% 8.4% 2.9% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 57 45 14 8 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
8,440 35,246 11,075 3,668 1,551 17,567
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.0% 25.2% 7.9% 2.6% 1.1% 12.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 31 16 8 7 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,837 4,492
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.5% 3.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets moved lower on Friday, but a little higher for the week. The weekly charts in both markets show mixed trends and the market appears to be searching for a direction at this time. Petroleum futures appear to have made some short-term lows at this time, and petroleum futures strength seems to be helping change the tone in Sugar. Brazil has been using a majority of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar. Unica reported that In the season from April 1 through Jan. 16, the mills crushed 562.7 million tons of cane, down 3.6% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell nearly 27% to 26.4 million tons, and ethanol output rose almost 20% to 30.2 billion liters. The production mix for the season through Jan. 16 was 35.5% sugar to 64.5% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 46.9% sugar and 53.1% ethanol. There are doubts on just how much production will be seen this year in India. Northwest India had been experiencing hot and dry weather that could cut yields. It has not announced a reduction in its export goal of 5.0 million tons this year, but it appears that the country will not export nearly that much. Some industry sources told wire services that exports could be only half of the target. The government is now exploring ethanol use for the surplus. Dry conditions continue in northern Brazil and there are frequent rains in Rio Grande do Sul. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but the next production could be less as farmers might switch to other crops due to low prices for Sugarcane. Thailand has crushed 45.1 million tons of Sugarcane this year, from 34.6 million last year. It has produced 4.5 million tons of Sugar, from 3.4 million tons last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1220 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1310, and 1330 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 336.00 and 316.00 March. Support is at 336.00, 331.00, and 328.00 March, and resistance is at 348.00, 351.00, and 353.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,029,632
: Positions :
: 79,915 157,630 212,865 355,076 531,470 294,535 55,439 942,390 957,404: 87,242 72,228
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 (Change in open interest: 19,147) :
: 905 1,363 -1,045 11,215 4,458 -261 4,633 10,815 9,410: 8,333 9,737
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 15.3 20.7 34.5 51.6 28.6 5.4 91.5 93.0: 8.5 7.0
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 61 78 82 75 35 23 215 198:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/29/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
94,263 45,324 69,924 13,830 1,236 868
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 48.1% 74.2% 14.7% 1.3% 0.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
135 54 58 11 3 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,300 6,185 8,491 2,303 291 4,389
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.2% 6.6% 9.0% 2.4% 0.3% 4.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 11 16 8 5 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,758 2,879
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 3.1%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower for the week in New York and lower in London as the new main crop harvest continues in West Africa. Trends are down. The outlook for strong production in the coming year is still around, and ports are said to have plenty of Cocoa on offer. The main crop harvest is active in West Africa. Harmattan winds and hot and dry conditions have moved into West Africa. The winds have stayed to the north of primary production areas so far this season. These conditions can take moisture out of the soil very rapidly and cause some very significant stress on the trees. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.581 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2180, 2100, and 2080 March. Support is at 2160, 2150, and 2100 March, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2280 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1500 March. Support is at 1560, 1540, and 1520 March, with resistance at 1600, 1620, and 1650 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 274,090
: Positions :
: 36,075 47,998 52,491 110,644 143,226 62,001 20,708 261,210 264,423: 12,879 9,667
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 (Change in open interest: -3,575) :
: -3,134 -3,594 -3,984 656 3,038 1,220 -1,291 -5,242 -5,830: 1,667 2,255
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.2 17.5 19.2 40.4 52.3 22.6 7.6 95.3 96.5: 4.7 3.5
: Total Traders: 210 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 55 64 43 44 33 15 174 148:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/29/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
324,387 175,644 207,427 35,210 8,841 21,617
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.1% 63.9% 10.9% 2.7% 6.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 51 42 16 9 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,543 22,276 27,841 3,551 474 32,322
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.2% 6.9% 8.6% 1.1% 0.1% 10.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 16 17 8 12 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,660 3,589
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.5% 1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322