About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were a little lower for the week and continue to hold a range trade overall. Futures rallied on Friday on news that Ethiopia had tendered for 450,000 tons of world Wheat and that US Wheat would be considered and would be price competitive. USDA issued its first weekly export sales report yesterday and the data showed good demand and fit trade expectations. However, the data Was from December 20 and was considered too old to affect prices that much. More demand news is possible over the next few weeks as USDA aims to catch up on all reports by February 22. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. Traders were also keeping an eye on the weather as extreme and possibly record cold invaded the US Midwest this week. The SRW crop could be at risk, especially in areas with little or no snow cover. Temperatures are staring to moderate, but it could take a while for the damage to show as it is still Winter and the crop is dormant. World prices have continued to firm over the last few weeks, and the US price has held or improved only slightly. USDA has not said anything about the January reports, but those will be of interest. The Wheat Seedings report could easily show that not all of the Winter Wheat got planted in the Midwest and Great Plains due to wet conditions in the Fall planting period.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions through Wednesday and some mixed precipitation starting on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see frequent chances for precipitation. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 518, 511, and 509 March, with resistance at 529, 530, and 538 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 499, 492, and 488 March, with resistance at 511, 518, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 576, 570, and 567 March, and resistance is at 582, 584, and 587 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 521,427
: Positions :
: 66,992 114,116 148,551 92,967 157,251 177,230 55,063 485,740 474,980: 35,687 46,447
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 (Change in open interest: -17,207) :
: -5,815 3,746 -14,175 5,426 -4,249 -2,192 -3,051 -16,756 -17,729: -451 522
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 21.9 28.5 17.8 30.2 34.0 10.6 93.2 91.1: 6.8 8.9
: Total Traders: 391 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 114 125 94 108 48 23 312 303:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 307,915
: Positions :
: 65,931 75,067 65,517 77,866 129,236 69,705 16,384 279,020 286,205: 28,896 21,711
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 (Change in open interest: -1,588) :
: -5,157 -802 746 3,353 -1,607 -529 509 -1,587 -1,154: -1 -434
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.4 24.4 21.3 25.3 42.0 22.6 5.3 90.6 92.9: 9.4 7.1
: Total Traders: 269 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 51 67 79 94 33 12 207 201:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 61,953 :
: Positions :
: 32,068 25,584 1,872 0 0 6,070 13,397 1,803 4,790 7,221 2,981 :
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 :
: 1,352 -2,391 -10 0 0 -2,145 2,142 496 -340 -294 772 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.8 41.3 3.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 21.6 2.9 7.7 11.7 4.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 87 :
: 40 30 4 0 0 7 10 4 8 7 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 17,814 :
: Positions :
: 8,927 15,352 1,082 400 500 6,232 0 0 393 500 100 :
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 :
: -1,000 -925 4 0 0 96 0 0 -20 0 0 :
]: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 50.1 86.2 6.1 2.2 2.8 35.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.8 0.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 25 :
: 10 12 . . . . 0 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher Friday and slightly lower for the week in very quiet trading. Weekly charts show that futures are near strong resistance areas, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflecting the lack of farmer interest in selling. Demand from the mills is said to be quiet, but export demand should be solid as US prices are competitive into Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Basis levels remain generally firm in Arkansas, but are weak in Texas. The Arkansas market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Basis levels have shown some weakness near the Gulf coast due to light demand. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time, and prices are too cheap for them right now. South American weather has not been good for growing Rice, and internal prices there have not interested producers. Ideas are that production will be less in Mercosur again this year. The weather is a problem in the US as it has been too wet near the Gulf Coast for producers to begin fieldwork.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1059, 1049, and 1042 March, with resistance at 1083, 1089, and 1093 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 7,831 :
: Positions :
: 5,496 3,889 151 0 0 0 2,462 0 704 6 216 :
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 :
: 141 -86 0 0 0 0 193 -5 -126 -12 -352 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 70.2 49.7 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.4 0.0 9.0 0.1 2.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 43 :
: 12 12 . 0 0 0 11 0 9 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on Friday, but a little lower for the week as the market. Oats were also lower for the week. The first weekly export sales report since the government shutdown was released and it showed strong demand. The report was from December 20 and was considered too old to do much for prices. USDA will catch up on the rest of the weekly reports by late this month. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on Friday. The Corn data for last year is expected to show reduced production. Demand could be a little weaker as well, especially with the current weakness in the ethanol market. It remains dry and hot in central and northern Brazil, but the weather patterns are starting to change and feature at least some showers in important Winter Corn growing areas. The Soybeans harvest is expanding in Mato Grosso and Parana, and farmers will be ready to plant the winter Corn once the Soybeans are out. The harvest pace and planting pace have been ahead of normal there and also in Parana. The Corn market still finds increased selling interest when prices try to get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Trends are currently sideways on the daily charts and sideways on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 274 and 270 March. Support is at 280, 278, and 277 March, and resistance is at 290, 294, and 296 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,856,868
: Positions :
: 247,216 212,875 419,796 543,958 875,563 438,672 127,334 1,649,643 1,635,568: 207,225 221,300
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 (Change in open interest: -46,573) :
: -22,283 5,748 -4,140 -9,985 -49,977 -10,578 350 -46,986 -48,018: 413 1,446
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 11.5 22.6 29.3 47.2 23.6 6.9 88.8 88.1: 11.2 11.9
: Total Traders: 825 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 166 133 194 348 377 50 27 660 655:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,510 :
: Positions :
: 899 3,678 149 0 0 1,183 115 0 1,240 578 148 :
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 :
: -222 -411 0 0 0 -177 -84 0 -5 27 -15 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 66.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 21.5 2.1 0.0 22.5 10.5 2.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31 :
: 9 10 . 0 0 9 . 0 6 . 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower last week as movement was seen in the US-China trade dispute. There was apparently good progress made at the talks, and word was leaked that any deal now would include a commitment from China to buy another five million tons of US Soybeans. It apparently bought at least one million tons late last week. This news allowed Soybeans to rally for most of Friday, but late selling took the market well off the highs and futures closed near the lows of the day. Trends are sideways on the weekly charts for these markets, and the fundamentals of big supplies might keep rallies in check. US Soybean Meal supplies should be increasing as crusher look to produce Soybean Oil due to higher prices in that product, and Soybean Meal trends are starting to turn down. There are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. USDA released its first weekly export sales report since the shutdown and announced part of the sale of about 5.0 million tons to China that were made in the last month. It will catch up with the weekly reports by late this month. It will release the January reports along with the February reports on Friday. Soybeans remain a weather market. South American weather remains too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. These weather trends are finally starting to change, but it is too late to help most Soybeans in Brazil. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso. Private Brazil production estimates range from about 110 million tons to about 115 million tons.
Overnight News: USDA said that China bought 612,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 909, 906, and 900 March, and resistance is at 927, 928, and 931 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 305.00 March, and resistance is at 314.00, 316.00, and 317.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2950, 2910, and 2890 March, with resistance at 3030, 3050, and 3060 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 801,293
: Positions :
: 59,086 121,938 182,466 316,358 357,922 180,786 38,796 738,696 701,122: 62,598 100,171
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 (Change in open interest: -75,384) :
: -3,783 6,459 -47,655 -9,523 -12,291 -10,242 -19,571 -71,204 -73,059: -4,180 -2,325
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.4 15.2 22.8 39.5 44.7 22.6 4.8 92.2 87.5: 7.8 12.5
: Total Traders: 599 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 116 151 187 198 222 45 23 467 501:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 492,960
: Positions :
: 57,540 105,551 128,409 157,563 218,956 113,545 11,109 457,057 464,025: 35,903 28,935
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 (Change in open interest: -15,166) :
: -2,369 -257 -10,506 1,713 -2,558 -1,807 -773 -12,969 -14,094: -2,197 -1,072
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.7 21.4 26.0 32.0 44.4 23.0 2.3 92.7 94.1: 7.3 5.9
: Total Traders: 330 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 89 111 87 75 37 18 261 253:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 462,030
: Positions :
: 49,335 58,509 93,904 156,230 247,718 106,288 23,027 405,757 423,158: 56,273 38,872
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 (Change in open interest: -8,663) :
: 3,148 137 -4,407 -3,496 -1,599 -3,460 -2,885 -8,215 -8,754: -448 91
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 12.7 20.3 33.8 53.6 23.0 5.0 87.8 91.6: 12.2 8.4
: Total Traders: 289 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 63 86 99 85 35 14 245 214:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher in choppy trading as worries about Chinese demand due to political tensions between China and Canada kept some buyers away and the prices in an overall trading range. Reports of rains in central and northern Brazil also hurt prices for Canola. Speculators were the best sellers. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Stronger world vegetable oils prices helped support Canola. Palm Oil was slightly higher in limited trading before the long Lunar New Year holiday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 465.00 and 428.00 March. Support is at 480.00, 474.00, and 471.00 March, with resistance at 486.00, 489.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 April. Support is at 2270, 2250, and 2230 April, with resistance at 2330, 2340, and 2350 April.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 171,650 :
: Positions :
: 106,061 70,773 1,744 909 170 31,072 64,795 12,920 8,212 10,637 9,994 :
: Changes from: December 18, 2018 :
: -4,157 -10,133 -3,841 -54 -76 -517 1,615 555 -611 -671 69 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.8 41.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 18.1 37.7 7.5 4.8 6.2 5.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 192 :
: 26 25 . . . 5 50 10 39 52 19 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Feb 1
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Jan. 27, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 3106.3 803.0 233.0 357.2 48.9 1094.0 391.5 405.2 7269.5
Week ago 3050.7 714.5 223.1 376.0 54.3 1168.1 371.1 406.4 7177.5
Year ago 2941.0 822.8 178.6 386.0 65.0 1432.4 272.1 109.3 6878.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 424.6 105.0 58.0 80.8 5.3 383.1 89.6 6.1 1228.6
Week Ago 430.0 74.0 36.3 114.4 8.1 406.3 70.0 21.3 1261.0
To Date 11330.7 1879.5 1198.3 1951.7 185.5 9663.4 1892.3 290.1 30849.1
Year Ago 9228.0 2065.4 1209.5 1630.1 237.4 10220.0 1497.7 244.2 28814.6
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 304.6 23.2 0.1 58.5 2.5 178.7 35.8 18.4 647.6
Week Ago 380.8 46.2 0.9 12.0 3.3 222.5 31.4 49.2 806.1
To Date 11060.9 2008.3 254.4 1143.4 70.7 5506.1 1024.2 664.0 26820.1
Year Ago 9073.4 2404.3 115.9 833.0 144.4 6026.2 971.7 455.9 24419.6
EXPORTS
This Week 378.3 13.8 36.0 0.1 7.9 268.5 37.0 0.0 744.8
Week Ago 377.7 100.4 22.4 59.8 6.0 130.9 8.4 29.8 780.0
To Date 9253.0 1703.8 825.1 1202.0 133.2 5028.1 1038.2 811.8 23629.4
Year Ago 7871.7 1848.9 839.5 890.5 189.8 5429.7 1039.0 386.4 21596.8
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 55.3 2.0 5.1 16.5 0.9 177.3 4.7 15.3 296.9
Week Ago 38.6 5.2 8.0 20.9 1.0 189.0 3.4 18.0 338.3
To Date 2155.1 184.2 148.3 559.0 27.9 4653.3 109.5 606.5 9916.9
Year Ago 2465.8 417.0 127.2 621.8 27.5 4535.5 112.3 321.4 10169.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be near to above normal this week and mostly below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 57 March 158 March 94 March 30 March -2 March
March 57 March 94 March 30 March
April 49 May 78 May 15 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
February
March 45 March -12 March
April 45 May -18 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 1
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 464.70 dn 1.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 497.40 dn 1.20
2 Can 484.40 dn 1.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 512.40 up 0.70
2 Can 499.40 dn 0.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322