William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
The light at the end of the tunnel is slowly appearing! First, the gov’t got back to work last week – GLORY HALLELUJAH! Then after a third US/China trade meeting, new China exports were announced – to the tune of 5MMT! The mkt didn’t explode but did maintain its current range – a step in the right direction for sure!!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 929,000 (1.0 – 1.4) & Thur sales were 2.405 MMT – some of these #’s are catch up – but it’s great to see the USDA reporting again – please Rep & Dem – no more shutdowns!!
- US/CHINA TRADE DEAL -it’s not moving ahead at a pace that many would like – but it is moving forward – nonetheless! Nobody said it would be easy!
- SOUTH AMERICA DRY – still major issues exist – in fact, the latest Brazil estimate IS down to 112 MMT (originally 125)
- FEB 8 USDA REPORT – will include the Jan Final #’s!
We’re making progress – not rapid but better than a “snails pace”! The USDA is reporting again & China is buying again – BETTER DAYS ARE AHEAD!!
Mar Corn has traded sideways since 12/31/18 – closing up 3 cents on the year today at 378 ½. Resumed exports have been their usual stellar self at 929,000 on Mon & 1.752 on Thur! Mar Corn has been coat-tailing Mar Beans – awaiting resolution of the trade deal – which now appears imminent! Global & domestic stocks aren’t burdensome – like in the bean complex! And both domestic & foreign demand is impressive! And maybe the best thing is the price level – which is the lowest anywhere in the world mkt! We feel corn is thru “going down” – which leaves sideways or up! We favor the latter option!
Mar Wht had a fine week – easily outperforming its “sister mkts” Mar Beans & Mar Corn – gaining 4 cents for the week & closing on an 8-day high! It wasn’t Russia or export news that propelled the mkt but the bitter cold snap the entire farm belt endured in the past week – easily putting the Winter Wheat Crop with minimal snow cover – in harms way! In addition, US Wht is the cheapest in the world which should bode very well for 2019 exports! Finally, a US/China trade resolution should definitely help wht as a “rising tide floats all boats”!
The dichotomy between Feb Cat & Feb Hogs is glaring – today Feb Cat closed only $2.00 off its contract highs – while Feb Hogs kept their nose to the floor – making new contract lows at some $13 off their November highs! Two things come to mind – one is absolutely stellar demand which has persisted since last Fall – and second is the Polar Vortex which blew thru the Midwest this past week – inflicting death loss & lower weight gains! This enabled the mkt to sustain its gains of over $10 – garnered since last November!!
Feb Hog’s abysmal performance – in stark contrast to Feb Cat – can be blamed by too much reliance on” future bullishly perceived events” that haven’t panned out! Both deal with improved exports that just haven’t happened! The ASF was supposed to have kicked up Chinese buying of our pork – as well, a trade resolution was supposed to have knocked off tariffs & increased foreign exports – both so far neither has transpired – leaving the mkt at the mercy of abundant meat & poultry supplies – which have easily overcome demand!!
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