About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were a little lower and continue to hold a range trade overall. USDA issued its first weekly export sales report yesterday and the data showed good demand and fit trade expectations. However, the data Was from December 20 and was considered too old to affect prices that much. More demand news is possible over the next few weeks as USDA aims to catch up on all reports by February 22. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. Traders were also keeping an eye on the weather as extreme and possibly record cold invaded the US Midwest this week. The SRW crop could be at risk, especially in areas with little or no snow cover. Temperatures are staring to moderate, but it could take a while for the damage to show as it is still Winter and the crop is dormant. World prices have continued to firm over the last few weeks, and the US price has held or improved only slightly. USDA has not said anything about the January reports, but those will be of interest. The Wheat Seedings report could easily show that not all of the Winter Wheat got planted in the Midwest and Great Plains due to wet conditions in the Fall planting period.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 501 and 489 March. Support is at 509, 508, and 504 March, with resistance at 523, 529, and 530 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 492, 488, and 485 March, with resistance at 511, 518, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 561, 549, and 534 March. Support is at 567, 561, and 557 March, and resistance is at 574, 578, and 580 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mixed yesterday, with nearby prices a little lower and deferred prices a little higher. It was another low volume trade as everyone waits for the news from the trade talks between the US and China in Washington. The quiet tone in the cash market is reflecting the lack of farmer interest in selling. Demand from the mills is said to be quiet, but export demand should be solid as US prices are competitive into Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Mills appear to be generally well covered at this time. Basis levels remain generally firm in Arkansas, but weak in Texas. South American weather has not been good for growing Rice, and internal prices there have not interested producers. Ideas are that production will be less in Mercosur again this year. The weather is becoming a problem in the US as it has been too wet near the Gulf Coast for producers to begin fieldwork. It has been wet and cold in Arkansas, but there is time before any fieldwork needs to begin.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation today, then dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1059, 1049, and 1042 March, with resistance at 1083, 1089, and 1093 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower and is now back at the bottom end of the recent trading range. Traders are waiting for news from the US-China trade talks in Washington this week and more demand news from USDA. The first weekly export sales report was released yesterday and was strong, but five weeks old and considered not material to what is happening now. Oats were near unchanged. Demand news is possible over the next few weeks as USDA moves to catch up with the backlog of information. It plans to be caught up on all of the weekly data by February 22. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. Corn traders will look for strong export demand and also reduced yields and production from last year. There has not been any talk of new Corn export demand, but basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico have been firm and US prices appear to be competitive in the world market. Some rains were reported in parts of Mato Grosso in Brazil over the weekend and more is expected next week. The Soybeans harvest is very active in Mato Grosso and Parana, and farmers are planting the winter Corn once the Soybeans are out. Corn is in good condition in Argentina. Corn demand for ethanol remains soft. Ethanol prices have weakened as the Crude Oil and products markets have stayed weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 274 and 270 March. Support is at 280, 278, and 277 March, and resistance is at 290, 294, and 296 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little lower. Soybeans had a reversal day on the daily charts and could move lower into next week. Traders are keeping an eye on the trade negotiations that ended yesterday and hear that progress was made. There is talk that the two presidents will meet the next month to push the negotiations more. The weekly export sales report from USDA was very strong but was dated on December 20. The data was considered too old to affect prices very much today. USDA will issue the January monthly reports with the February reports on February 8 and will have all of the weekly reports released by February 22. US Soybean Meal supplies should be increasing as crushers  look to produce Soybean Oil due to higher prices in that product. There are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. Soybeans remain a weather market. South American weather remains too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. Private Brazil production estimates range from about 115 million tons to about 117 million tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 891 and 875 March. Support is at 909, 906, and 900 March, and resistance is at 927, 928, and 931 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 306.00, 305.00, and 299.00 March. Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 305.00 March, and resistance is at 314.00, 316.00, and 321.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2990, 2950, and 2910 March, with resistance at 3030, 3050, and 3070 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower in choppy trading as worries about Chinese demand due to political tensions between China and Canada kept some buyers away and the prices in an overall trading range. Reports of rains in central and northern Brazil also hurt prices for Canola. Speculators were the best sellers. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Stronger world vegetable oils prices helped support Canola. Palm Oil was closed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 465.00 and 428.00 March. Support is at 480.00, 474.00, and 471.00 March, with resistance at 486.00, 489.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 April. Support is at 2270, 2250, and 2230 April, with resistance at 2330, 2340, and 2350 April.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Feb 1
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Jan. 27, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 3106.3 803.0 233.0 357.2 48.9 1094.0 391.5 405.2 7269.5
Week ago 3050.7 714.5 223.1 376.0 54.3 1168.1 371.1 406.4 7177.5
Year ago 2941.0 822.8 178.6 386.0 65.0 1432.4 272.1 109.3 6878.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 424.6 105.0 58.0 80.8 5.3 383.1 89.6 6.1 1228.6
Week Ago 430.0 74.0 36.3 114.4 8.1 406.3 70.0 21.3 1261.0
To Date 11330.7 1879.5 1198.3 1951.7 185.5 9663.4 1892.3 290.1 30849.1
Year Ago 9228.0 2065.4 1209.5 1630.1 237.4 10220.0 1497.7 244.2 28814.6
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 304.6 23.2 0.1 58.5 2.5 178.7 35.8 18.4 647.6
Week Ago 380.8 46.2 0.9 12.0 3.3 222.5 31.4 49.2 806.1
To Date 11060.9 2008.3 254.4 1143.4 70.7 5506.1 1024.2 664.0 26820.1
Year Ago 9073.4 2404.3 115.9 833.0 144.4 6026.2 971.7 455.9 24419.6
EXPORTS
This Week 378.3 13.8 36.0 0.1 7.9 268.5 37.0 0.0 744.8
Week Ago 377.7 100.4 22.4 59.8 6.0 130.9 8.4 29.8 780.0
To Date 9253.0 1703.8 825.1 1202.0 133.2 5028.1 1038.2 811.8 23629.4
Year Ago 7871.7 1848.9 839.5 890.5 189.8 5429.7 1039.0 386.4 21596.8
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 55.3 2.0 5.1 16.5 0.9 177.3 4.7 15.3 296.9
Week Ago 38.6 5.2 8.0 20.9 1.0 189.0 3.4 18.0 338.3
To Date 2155.1 184.2 148.3 559.0 27.9 4653.3 109.5 606.5 9916.9
Year Ago 2465.8 417.0 127.2 621.8 27.5 4535.5 112.3 321.4 10169.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation over the weekend. Temperatures should be below normal this week, with record cold now reported. Above normal again this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 55 March 154 March 86 March 20 March -2 March
March 55 March 86 March 18 March
April 49 May 78 May 15 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
February
March 52 March -12 March
April 50 May -18 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 31
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 466.60 dn 0.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 498.60 dn 1.90
2 Can 485.60 dn 1.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 511.70 dn 1.90
2 Can 498.70 dn 1.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 137,754 lots, or 4.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 3,280 3,296 3,252 3,252 3,257 3,288 31 72 1,964
May-19 3,423 3,475 3,418 3,450 3,407 3,440 33 127,076 110,852
Jul-19 – – – 3,449 3,449 3,449 0 0 4
Sep-19 3,454 3,488 3,444 3,477 3,435 3,461 26 8,722 22,462
Nov-19 – – – 3,404 3,404 3,404 0 0 14
Jan-20 3,427 3,439 3,418 3,428 3,419 3,428 9 1,884 5,898
Corn
Turnover: 310,914 lots, or 5.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 1,827 1,846 1,827 1,846 1,825 1,831 6 18,318 21,612
May-19 1,866 1,875 1,861 1,873 1,861 1,867 6 240,332 991,844
Jul-19 1,891 1,898 1,886 1,896 1,884 1,893 9 10,500 14,762
Sep-19 1,896 1,902 1,891 1,898 1,891 1,897 6 40,604 353,024
Nov-19 1,912 1,920 1,909 1,919 1,909 1,915 6 354 1,068
Jan-20 1,921 1,927 1,916 1,926 1,916 1,920 4 806 16,124
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,828,008 lots, or 47.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 2,616 2,674 2,613 2,623 2,597 2,629 32 88,734 63,552
May-19 2,590 2,629 2,575 2,586 2,570 2,598 28 1,385,528 1,658,070
Jul-19 2,596 2,635 2,593 2,609 2,577 2,615 38 127,910 53,994
Aug-19 2,660 2,660 2,633 2,641 2,600 2,642 42 8 230
Sep-19 2,639 2,675 2,630 2,650 2,620 2,651 31 217,016 514,560
Nov-19 2,647 2,693 2,647 2,669 2,647 2,667 20 2,632 2,944
Dec-19 2,663 2,672 2,663 2,672 2,628 2,667 39 4 204
Jan-20 2,692 2,730 2,688 2,703 2,678 2,710 32 6,176 44,040
Palm Oil
Turnover: 259,774 lots, or 12.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-19 – – – 4,560 4,260 4,560 300 0 20
Mar-19 – – – 4,756 4,756 4,756 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,802 4,802 4,802 0 0 20
May-19 4,780 4,788 4,754 4,780 4,784 4,772 -12 239,856 436,102
Jun-19 – – – 4,846 4,846 4,846 0 0 62
Jul-19 – – – 4,866 4,866 4,866 0 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,810 4,810 4,810 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,826 4,834 4,806 4,826 4,828 4,820 -8 19,588 68,318
Oct-19 – – – 4,896 4,896 4,896 0 0 26
Nov-19 – – – 4,838 4,838 4,838 0 0 36
Dec-19 – – – 4,960 4,960 4,960 0 0 40
Jan-20 4,878 4,878 4,842 4,856 4,874 4,862 -12 330 1,308
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 298,494 lots, or 17.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 5,380 5,382 5,380 5,382 5,340 5,380 40 8 148
May-19 5,730 5,752 5,702 5,726 5,750 5,726 -24 259,072 711,248
Jul-19 – – – 5,786 5,786 5,786 0 0 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,660 5,682 5,660 -22 0 2
Sep-19 5,800 5,820 5,784 5,794 5,816 5,800 -16 38,188 183,134
Nov-19 – – – 5,860 5,860 5,860 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,868 5,868 5,868 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,918 5,918 5,884 5,892 5,922 5,898 -24 1,226 8,494
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322