About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jan 31
For the week ended Dec 20, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 526.3 76.1 17197.0 19338.7 5462.2 82.1
hrw 235.3 9.1 5244.9 7781.4 1725.1 9.1
srw 63.3 11.9 2212.6 1923.3 846.1 17.9
hrs 160.7 21.6 5368.8 5084.5 1679.9 21.6
white 54.5 11.0 3952.4 4278.1 1116.2 11.0
durum 12.5 22.5 418.4 271.5 95.0 22.5
corn 1699.4 53.3 31324.5 26569.9 13728.8 867.9
soybeans 2391.4 13.9 29929.7 40371.7 13904.4 309.2
soymeal 427.4 8.1 6744.3 6002.4 4197.4 114.0
soyoil 13.7 0.0 387.7 306.2 212.7 0.3
upland cotton 373.1 4.0 10350.8 10582.5 7148.8 2061.9
pima cotton 7.8 0.0 452.9 468.6 309.0 28.1
sorghum 20.0 0.0 455.7 4348.9 139.0 0.0
barley 0.6 0.0 57.6 36.5 31.3 0.0
rice 145.4 0.0 1758.5 1613.4 592.3 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were higher and continue to hold a range trade overall. More demand news is possible later this week as USDA moves to catch up with the backlog of information. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. Traders were also keeping an eye on the weather as extreme and possibly record cold will invade the US Midwest this week. The SRW crop could be at risk, especially in areas with little or no snow cover. Temperatures should start to moderate by Friday. The cold is expected to stay east of the HRW production areas of the Great Plains. World prices have continued to firm over the last few weeks, and the US price has held or improved only slightly. USDA has not said anything about the January reports, but those will be of interest. The Wheat Seedings report could easily show that not all of the Winter Wheat got planted in the Midwest and Great Plains due to wet conditions in the Fall planting period.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 516, 509, and 508 March, with resistance at 523, 529, and 530 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 501, 492, and 488 March, with resistance at 514, 518, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 571, 567, and 561 March, and resistance is at 580, 582, and 587 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday. The quiet tone in the cash market is reflecting the lack of farmer interest in selling. Demand from the mills is said to be quiet, but export demand should be solid as US prices are competitive into Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Basis levels remain generally firm in Arkansas, but weak in Texas. South American weather has not been good for growing Rice, and internal prices there have not interested producers. Ideas are that production will be less in Mercosur again this year. The weather is becoming a problem in the US as it has been too wet near the Gulf Coast for producers to begin fieldwork.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation today, then dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1065, 1059, and 1049 March, with resistance at 1083, 1089, and 1093 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher and continues to hold. Traders are waiting for news from the US-China trade talks in Washington this week and more demand news from USDA. Oats were lower. Demand news is possible later this week as USDA moves to catch up with the backlog of information. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. Corn traders will look for strong export demand and also reduced yields and production from last year. There has not been any talk of new Corn export demand, but basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico have been firm and US prices appear to be very competitive in the world market. There has been no talk of big sales anywhere, but big sales are possible due to the prices in the US and the uncertain growing conditions in South America. Some rains were reported in parts of Mato Grosso in Brazil over the weekend. The Soybeans harvest is expanding in Mato Grosso and Parana, and farmers will be ready to plant the winter Corn once the Soybeans are out. They need more rain before any planting can start. Corn demand for ethanol has softened. Ethanol prices have weakened as the Crude Oil and products markets have stayed weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 274, 270, and 270 March. Support is at 282, 280, and 278 March, and resistance is at 290, 294, and 296 March.

DJ US Ethanol Production Down Again — Market Talk
11:03 ET – Production of ethanol in the US finished down by 19,000 barrels per day in the latest week, to 1.012M barrels, according to the EIA. This is the second week in a row that ethanol production has finished lower, and the 6th out of the last seven weeks where ethanol production has fallen. Compared to the same time last year, ethanol production is down 2.7%. Ethanol production consumes approximately 1/3rd of US corn being grown today, with ethanol prices following both sugar and oil prices. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com, @kirkmaltais)

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little higher and Soybean Meal were a little lower. Soybean Oil was higher. Traders are keeping an eye on the trade negotiations that start today and also any news from USDA. Trends are still showing upside potential on the weekly charts for these markets, but the fundamentals of big supplies might keep rallies in check. US Soybean Meal supplies should be increasing as crushers look to produce Soybean Oil due to higher prices in that product. There are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. USDA is now open and is expected to announce sales of about 5.0 million tons to China that were made in the last month sometime in the next week or two. Soybeans remain a weather market. South American weather remains too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. Private Brazil production estimates range from about 115 million tons to about 117 million tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 939, 942, and 959 March. Support is at 916, 909, and 906 March, and resistance is at 928, 931, and 941 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 311.00, 309.00, and 307.00 March, and resistance is at 314.00, 316.00, and 321.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2990, 2950, and 2910 March, with resistance at 3030, 3050, and 3070 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower in choppy trading as worries about Chinese demand due to political tensions between China and Canada kept some buyers away and the prices in an overall trading range. Reports of rains in central and northern Brazil also hurt prices for Canola. Speculators were the best sellers. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Stronger world vegetable oils prices helped support Canola. Palm Oil was slightly lower on weaker outside markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 484.00, 482.00, and 480.00 March, with resistance at 489.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 April. Support is at 2270, 2250, and 2230 April, with resistance at 2330, 2340, and 2350 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation over the weekend. Temperatures should be below normal this week, with record cold now reported. Above normal again this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 53 March 150 March 85 March 29 March -2 March
February 55 March 85 March 23 March
March 55 March 85 March 18 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
January
February 45 March
March 50 March -13 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 30
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 467.50 dn 2.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 498.60 dn 0.90
2 Can 485.60 dn 0.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 513.60 dn 0.90
2 Can 500.60 dn 0.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 557.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 575.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 585.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 585.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 562.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 580.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 590.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 590.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 557.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 432.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,180 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 183.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0890)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 117,480 lots, or 4.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 3,260 3,260 3,250 3,250 3,254 3,257 3 8 1,964
May-19 3,399 3,430 3,383 3,426 3,403 3,407 4 110,434 121,534
Jul-19 – – – 3,449 3,449 3,449 0 0 4
Sep-19 3,432 3,455 3,416 3,454 3,432 3,435 3 6,400 21,118
Nov-19 3,347 3,443 3,347 3,433 3,347 3,404 57 16 14
Jan-20 3,417 3,430 3,402 3,427 3,416 3,419 3 622 5,378
Corn
Turnover: 388,096 lots, or 7.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 1,824 1,830 1,811 1,830 1,828 1,825 -3 13,916 25,134
May-19 1,864 1,868 1,852 1,863 1,862 1,861 -1 299,412 1,034,298
Jul-19 1,893 1,893 1,877 1,889 1,889 1,884 -5 2,000 12,816
Sep-19 1,901 1,901 1,883 1,895 1,896 1,891 -5 70,632 351,718
Nov-19 1,918 1,918 1,904 1,912 1,917 1,909 -8 690 1,138
Jan-20 1,923 1,924 1,910 1,920 1,923 1,916 -7 1,446 15,678
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,236,138 lots, or 31.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 2,591 2,632 2,588 2,623 2,591 2,597 6 109,970 78,250
May-19 2,555 2,591 2,554 2,589 2,555 2,570 15 985,564 1,725,146
Jul-19 2,570 2,599 2,569 2,596 2,569 2,577 8 30,014 30,674
Aug-19 – – – 2,600 2,600 2,600 0 0 232
Sep-19 2,609 2,636 2,606 2,636 2,606 2,620 14 106,176 495,180
Nov-19 2,625 2,655 2,625 2,653 2,626 2,647 21 1,142 3,552
Dec-19 2,585 2,670 2,585 2,670 2,645 2,628 -17 14 204
Jan-20 2,664 2,694 2,664 2,693 2,666 2,678 12 3,258 47,628
Palm Oil
Turnover: 283,638 lots, or 13.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-19 – – – 4,260 4,260 4,260 0 0 20
Mar-19 – – – 4,756 4,756 4,756 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,802 4,802 4,802 0 0 20
May-19 4,808 4,812 4,768 4,778 4,786 4,784 -2 261,056 470,878
Jun-19 – – – 4,846 4,848 4,846 -2 0 62
Jul-19 – – – 4,866 4,868 4,866 -2 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,810 4,810 4,810 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,860 4,860 4,814 4,824 4,842 4,828 -14 22,446 69,686
Oct-19 4,896 4,896 4,896 4,896 4,922 4,896 -26 2 26
Nov-19 – – – 4,838 4,838 4,838 0 0 36
Dec-19 – – – 4,960 4,986 4,960 -26 0 40
Jan-20 4,902 4,902 4,858 4,870 4,886 4,874 -12 134 1,354
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 371,538 lots, or 21.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 5,276 5,384 5,240 5,372 5,302 5,340 38 62 146
May-19 5,780 5,782 5,730 5,732 5,762 5,750 -12 314,168 710,258
Jul-19 – – – 5,786 5,798 5,786 -12 0 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,682 5,692 5,682 -10 0 2
Sep-19 5,854 5,854 5,800 5,806 5,830 5,816 -14 56,396 184,068
Nov-19 5,860 5,860 5,860 5,860 5,868 5,860 -8 2 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,868 5,868 5,868 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,940 5,952 5,900 5,908 5,930 5,922 -8 910 7,672
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322