About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on weaker demand ideas. More demand news is possible later this week as USDA moves to catch up with the backlog of information. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. Traders were also keeping an eye on the weather as extreme and possibly record cold will invade the US Midwest this week. The SRW crop could be at risk, especially in areas with little or no snow cover. Temperatures should start to moderate by Friday. The cold is expected to stay east of the HRW production areas of the Great Plains. World prices have continued to firm over the last few weeks, and the US price has held or improved only slightly. USDA has not said anything about the January reports, but those will be of interest. The Wheat Seedings report could easily show that not all of the Winter Wheat got planted in the Midwest and Great Plains due to wet conditions in the Fall planting period.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 516, 509, and 508 March, with resistance at 523, 529, and 530 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 501, 492, and 488 March, with resistance at 514, 518, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 571, 567, and 561 March, and resistance is at 580, 582, and 587 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mixed yesterday in low volume trading. The quiet tone in the cash market is reflecting the lack of farmer interest in selling. Demand from the mills is said to be quiet, but export demand should be solid as US prices are competitive into Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Basis levels remain generally firm in Arkansas, but weak in Texas. South American weather has not been good for growing Rice, and internal prices there have not interested producers. Ideas are that production will be less in Mercosur again this year. The weather is becoming a problem in the US as it has been too wet near the Gulf Coast for producers to begin fieldwork.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation today, then dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1065, 1059, and 1049 March, with resistance at 1083, 1089, and 1093 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 30
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.49 8.69 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 13.21 8.86 0.00
Brokens 8.14 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was little changed yesterday. Traders are waiting for news from the US-China trade talks in Washington this week and more demand news from USDA. Oats were lower. Demand news is possible later this week as USDA moves to catch up with the backlog of information. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. Corn traders will look for strong export demand and also reduced yields and production from last year. There has not been any talk of new Corn export demand, but basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico have been firm and US prices appear to be very competitive in the world market. There has been no talk of big sales anywhere, but big sales are possible due to the prices in the US and the uncertain growing conditions in South America. Some rains were reported in parts of Mato Grosso in Brazil over the weekend. The Soybeans harvest is expanding in Mato Grosso and Parana, and farmers will be ready to plant the winter Corn once the Soybeans are out. They need more rain before any planting can start. Corn demand for ethanol has softened. Ethanol prices have weakened as the Crude Oil and products markets have stayed weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 274, 270, and 270 March. Support is at 282, 280, and 278 March, and resistance is at 290, 294, and 296 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little lower, but Soybean Oil was higher. Traders are keeping an eye on the trade negotiations that start today and also any news from USDA. Trends are still showing upside potential on the weekly charts for these markets, but the fundamentals of big supplies might keep rallies in check. US Soybean Meal supplies should be increasing as crushers  look to produce Soybean Oil due to higher prices in that product. There are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. USDA is now open and is expected to announce sales of about 5.0 million tons to China that were made in the last month sometime in the next week or two. Soybeans remain a weather market. South American weather remains too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. Private Brazil production estimates range from about 115 million tons to about 117 million tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 939, 942, and 959 March. Support is at 916, 909, and 906 March, and resistance is at 928, 931, and 941 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 311.00, 309.00, and 307.00 March, and resistance is at 314.00, 316.00, and 321.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2990, 2950, and 2910 March, with resistance at 3030, 3050, and 3070 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower in choppy trading as worries about Chinese demand due to political tensions between China and Canada kept some buyers away and the prices in an overall trading range. Reports of rains in central and northern Brazil also hurt prices for Canola. Speculators were the best sellers. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Stronger world vegetable oils prices helped support Canola. Palm Oil was slightly higher on ideas of strong demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 484.00, 482.00, and 480.00 March, with resistance at 489.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 April. Support is at 2270, 2250, and 2230 April, with resistance at 2330, 2340, and 2350 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation over the weekend. Temperatures should be below normal this week, with record cold now reported. Above normal again this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 53 March 150 March 85 March 25 March -2 March
February 54 March 85 March 22 March
March 54 March 85 March 18 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
January
February 40 March
March 52 March -13 March

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 562.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 577.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 590.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 590.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 567.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 582.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 595.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 595.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 562.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 427.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,190 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 187.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1060)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 94,320 lots, or 3.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 3,260 3,272 3,250 3,258 3,279 3,254 -25 64 1,966
May-19 3,421 3,426 3,391 3,396 3,416 3,403 -13 89,824 131,294
Jul-19 – – – 3,449 3,449 3,449 0 0 4
Sep-19 3,447 3,452 3,423 3,427 3,446 3,432 -14 3,934 20,968
Nov-19 – – – 3,347 3,360 3,347 -13 0 14
Jan-20 3,430 3,430 3,410 3,414 3,423 3,416 -7 498 5,168
Corn
Turnover: 289,788 lots, or 5.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 1,828 1,834 1,823 1,823 1,828 1,828 0 27,060 32,274
May-19 1,859 1,867 1,857 1,865 1,856 1,862 6 221,540 1,079,770
Jul-19 1,886 1,892 1,886 1,889 1,880 1,889 9 224 11,642
Sep-19 1,891 1,901 1,891 1,898 1,887 1,896 9 39,114 338,954
Nov-19 1,916 1,920 1,915 1,915 1,909 1,917 8 260 1,070
Jan-20 1,919 1,926 1,919 1,924 1,915 1,923 8 1,590 15,374
Soymeal
Turnover: 878,324 lots, or 22.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 2,602 2,602 2,582 2,584 2,602 2,591 -11 113,826 152,032
May-19 2,561 2,565 2,547 2,552 2,561 2,555 -6 667,690 1,802,732
Jul-19 2,576 2,579 2,564 2,568 2,573 2,569 -4 1,084 9,522
Aug-19 2,597 2,622 2,580 2,607 2,594 2,600 6 12 232
Sep-19 2,613 2,614 2,600 2,605 2,609 2,606 -3 89,758 501,684
Nov-19 2,631 2,632 2,622 2,625 2,632 2,626 -6 878 3,878
Dec-19 2,641 2,646 2,641 2,645 2,640 2,645 5 26 208
Jan-20 2,672 2,674 2,660 2,665 2,672 2,666 -6 5,050 46,820
Palm Oil
Turnover: 483,460 lots, or 23.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-19 4,246 4,320 4,156 4,320 4,250 4,260 10 24 20
Mar-19 – – – 4,756 4,756 4,756 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,802 4,802 4,802 0 0 20
May-19 4,812 4,816 4,760 4,802 4,826 4,786 -40 454,642 496,488
Jun-19 4,848 4,848 4,848 4,848 4,860 4,848 -12 2 62
Jul-19 – – – 4,868 4,868 4,868 0 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,810 4,810 4,810 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,858 4,864 4,818 4,850 4,868 4,842 -26 28,048 73,994
Oct-19 – – – 4,922 4,922 4,922 0 0 26
Nov-19 – – – 4,838 4,862 4,838 -24 0 36
Dec-19 – – – 4,986 5,012 4,986 -26 0 40
Jan-20 4,916 4,920 4,870 4,896 4,910 4,886 -24 744 1,388
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 437,998 lots, or 25.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 5,302 5,318 5,302 -16 0 142
May-19 5,784 5,796 5,740 5,762 5,788 5,762 -26 367,148 726,712
Jul-19 5,798 5,798 5,798 5,798 5,756 5,798 42 4 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,692 5,692 5,692 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,836 5,848 5,810 5,838 5,840 5,830 -10 66,650 185,138
Nov-19 – – – 5,868 5,868 5,868 0 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,868 5,868 5,868 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,946 5,946 5,912 5,934 5,936 5,930 -6 4,196 7,740
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322