About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 28
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 24, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/24/2019 01/17/2019 01/25/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 343 122 6,534 19,210
CORN 893,001 1,127,279 1,011,214 21,489,433 13,797,157
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 218 4,673
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 699 1,793 8,286
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 7,197 65,821 201,323 571,795 2,138,494
SOYBEANS 929,417 1,132,163 1,132,112 20,459,989 33,407,868
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 362,153 524,942 581,626 14,376,513 16,214,549
Total 2,191,768 2,850,548 2,927,096 56,906,275 65,590,261
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Chicago will be colder than Antarctica, Mount Everest and Siberia this week
Aris Folley
39 mins ago

© Getty Images Chicago will be colder than Antarctica, Mount Everest and Siberia this week Chicago is expected to have one of its coldest days on record this week, with temperatures on Wednesday forecasted to reach historic lows typically seen in some of the globe’s most chilling locations.
According to a local CBS station, low temperatures are expected to reach 20 degrees below zero on Wednesday, which would reportedly be the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Windy City on Jan. 30.
Chicago is also expected to see a high of 12 below zero on Wednesday, which would also reportedly be the coldest high temperature ever recorded in the city.
The forecasts would reportedly place Chicago among some of the world’s frostiest sites, including the South Pole, which is expected to see a high temperature of 4 below zero on the same day.
Barrow, Alaska, which is located north of the Arctic Circle, is expected to see a high of 7 below zero on Wednesday and Zackenberg Station, Greenland, will reportedly reach 11 below zero, CBS 2 noted.
Even the summit of Mount Everest is expected to be warmer than Chicago on Wednesday with an expected high of 30, it added, and parts of Siberia are also expected to see higher temperatures than the city that day.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has warned of a “potentially historic winter storm that will bring extreme cold to our state” on Wednesday, according to CNN.

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower yesterday on weaker than expected export inspections. Traders were waiting for demand news or at least some signs of improved demand, but they did not get what they wanted yesterday. More demand news is possible later this week as USDA moves to catch up with the backlog of information. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. Traders were also keeping an eye on the weather as extreme and possibly record cold will invade the US Midwest this week. The SRW crop could be at risk, especially in areas with little or no snow cover. Temperatures should start to moderate by Friday. The cold is expected to stay east of the HRW production areas of the Great Plains. World prices have continued to firm over the last few weeks, and the US price has held or improved only slightly. USDA has not said anything about the January reports, but those will be of interest. The Wheat Seedings report could easily show that not all of the Winter Wheat got planted in the Midwest and Great Plains due to wet conditions in the Fall planting period.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 516, 509, and 508 March, with resistance at 523, 529, and 530 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 501, 492, and 488 March, with resistance at 514, 518, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 571, 567, and 561 March, and resistance is at 580, 582, and 587 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again yesterday as buyers look for some producer selling but find very little interest. Weekly charts show that futures are near strong resistance areas, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflecting the lack of farmer interest in selling. Demand from the mills is said to be quiet, but export demand should be solid as US prices are competitive into Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Basis levels remain generally firm in Arkansas, but weak in Texas. South American weather has not been good for growing Rice, and internal prices there have not interested producers. Ideas are that production will be less in Mercosur again this year. The weather is becoming a problem in the US as it has been too wet near the Gulf Coast for producers to begin fieldwork.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation today, then dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1065, 1059, and 1049 March, with resistance at 1083, 1089, and 1093 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly lower yesterday but feels like a market looking for a trend. The Export Inspections report was considered disappointing, but close to trade expectations. Oats were lower. Demand news is possible later this week as USDA moves to catch up with the backlog of information. USDA will issue the January reports along with the February reports on February 8. Corn traders will look for strong export demand and also reduced yields and production from last year. There has not been any talk of new Corn export demand, but basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico have been firm and US prices appear to be very competitive in the world market. There has been no talk of big sales anywhere, but big sales are possible due to the prices in the US and the uncertain growing conditions in South America. Some rains were reported in parts of Mato Grosso in Brazil over the weekend. The Soybeans harvest is expanding in Mato Grosso and Parana, and farmers will be ready to plant the winter Corn once the Soybeans are out. They need more rain before any planting can start. Corn demand for ethanol has softened. Ethanol prices have weakened as the Crude Oil and products markets have stayed weak.
Overnight News: USDA said that South Korea bought 138,000 tons of optional origin Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 274, 270, and 270 March. Support is at 282, 280, and 278 March, and resistance is at 290, 294, and 296 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little lower, but Soybean Oil was higher. Trends are still showing upside potential on the weekly charts for these markets, but the fundamentals of big supplies might keep rallies in check. US Soybean Meal supplies should be increasing as crushers look to produce Soybean Oil due to higher prices in that product. There are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. USDA is now open and is expected to announce sales of about 5.0 million tons to China that were made in the last month sometime in the next week or two. Soybeans remain a weather market. South American weather remains too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. There was some beneficial rain reported in parts of Mato Grosso over the weekend. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain. The harvest was reported at about 25% complete in Mato Grosso by the state agricultural department there. Private Brazil production estimates range from about 115 million tons to about 117 million tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 939, 942, and 959 March. Support is at 916, 909, and 906 March, and resistance is at 928, 931, and 941 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 311.00, 309.00, and 307.00 March, and resistance is at 316.00, 321.00, and 327.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2990, 2950, and 2910 March, with resistance at 3030, 3050, and 3070 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower as worries about Chinese demand due to political tensions between China and Canada kept some buyers away and the prices in an overall trading range. Reports of rains in central and northern Brazil also hurt prices for Canola. Speculators were the best sellers. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Stronger world vegetable oils prices helped support Canola. Palm Oil was slightly lower in liquidation trading today, but higher for the week in reaction to stronger vegetable oils markets and strong export demand
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 484.00, 482.00, and 480.00 March, with resistance at 490.00, 494.00, and 496.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 April. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2250 April, with resistance at 2330, 2340, and 2350 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation over the weekend. Temperatures should be below normal this week, with record cold possible. Above normal again this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 57 March 150 March 85 March 26 March -2 March
February 57 March 85 March 22 March
March 54 March 85 March 18 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Santos
January
February 35 March -14 March
March -14 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 28
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 471.50 up 1.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 501.50 dn 2.00
2 Can 488.50 dn 2.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 516.50 dn 2.00
2 Can 503.50 dn 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 555.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 567.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 582.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 582.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 560.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 572.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 587.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 587.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 547.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 420.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,150 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 186.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1085)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 109,896 lots, or 3.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 3,283 3,283 3,265 3,265 3,281 3,279 -2 200 1,968
May-19 3,423 3,431 3,396 3,418 3,440 3,416 -24 103,976 126,688
Jul-19 – – – 3,449 3,449 3,449 0 0 4
Sep-19 3,455 3,459 3,428 3,446 3,462 3,446 -16 5,374 21,646
Nov-19 – – – 3,360 3,375 3,360 -15 0 14
Jan-20 3,435 3,436 3,415 3,427 3,439 3,423 -16 346 5,122
Corn
Turnover: 270,176 lots, or 5.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 1,832 1,835 1,826 1,827 1,831 1,828 -3 7,596 31,424
May-19 1,855 1,859 1,853 1,857 1,855 1,856 1 213,202 1,112,126
Jul-19 1,880 1,884 1,877 1,884 1,878 1,880 2 466 11,608
Sep-19 1,881 1,892 1,881 1,891 1,883 1,887 4 47,600 342,532
Nov-19 1,908 1,913 1,908 1,913 1,907 1,909 2 616 1,172
Jan-20 1,917 1,919 1,913 1,918 1,915 1,915 0 696 14,328
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,385,758 lots, or 35.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 2,626 2,626 2,574 2,596 2,632 2,602 -30 57,252 159,848
May-19 2,582 2,587 2,538 2,560 2,587 2,561 -26 1,203,676 1,819,752
Jul-19 2,592 2,598 2,558 2,577 2,600 2,573 -27 1,302 9,378
Aug-19 2,594 2,594 2,594 2,594 2,630 2,594 -36 4 236
Sep-19 2,629 2,633 2,590 2,612 2,633 2,609 -24 117,290 508,492
Nov-19 2,651 2,651 2,615 2,633 2,652 2,632 -20 938 4,284
Dec-19 2,640 2,645 2,639 2,645 2,673 2,640 -33 74 202
Jan-20 2,713 2,713 2,654 2,672 2,694 2,672 -22 5,222 47,864
Palm Oil
Turnover: 353,714 lots, or 17.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-19 – – – 4,250 4,336 4,250 -86 0 24
Mar-19 – – – 4,756 4,756 4,756 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,802 4,802 4,802 0 0 20
May-19 4,846 4,854 4,808 4,822 4,812 4,826 14 322,860 503,640
Jun-19 – – – 4,860 4,860 4,860 0 0 64
Jul-19 – – – 4,868 4,868 4,868 0 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,810 4,798 4,810 12 0 2
Sep-19 4,886 4,890 4,852 4,868 4,854 4,868 14 30,614 73,404
Oct-19 – – – 4,922 4,908 4,922 14 0 26
Nov-19 – – – 4,862 4,862 4,862 0 0 36
Dec-19 5,012 5,012 5,012 5,012 4,994 5,012 18 2 40
Jan-20 4,922 4,926 4,898 4,922 4,888 4,910 22 238 1,224
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 423,968 lots, or 24.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 5,320 5,320 5,318 5,318 5,330 5,318 -12 6 142
May-19 5,804 5,814 5,764 5,790 5,754 5,788 34 372,160 746,256
Jul-19 – – – 5,756 5,724 5,756 32 0 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,692 5,660 5,692 32 0 2
Sep-19 5,842 5,862 5,816 5,846 5,810 5,840 30 49,038 179,048
Nov-19 – – – 5,868 5,838 5,868 30 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,868 5,838 5,868 30 0 10
Jan-20 5,948 5,954 5,916 5,936 5,922 5,936 14 2,764 5,200
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322