About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 09, 2019 480 Jan 07, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 09, 2019 122 Dec 31, 2018
ETHANOL January Jan. 08, 2019 5 Jan 04, 2019
SOYBEAN January Jan. 09, 2019 1152 Jan 04, 2019

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 7
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 03, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/03/2019 12/27/2018 01/04/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 6,191 18,182
CORN 501,541 952,881 850,768 18,455,159 11,439,129
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 218 4,673
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 400 1,693 7,587
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 30,989 27,026 1,623 486,718 1,647,410
SOYBEANS 673,172 756,153 1,214,582 17,299,307 29,608,752
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 260,134 380,152 235,216 12,936,185 14,787,052
Total 1,465,836 2,116,212 2,302,589 49,185,471 57,512,809
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were a little lower yesterday on disappointing export inspections and a lack of new business despite the weaker US Dollar. It was mostly a range trade yesterday, with Chicago SRW holding inside the Friday range and the other markets not straying from their ranges. World markets were firm, and US FOB prices are at of below just about all of the competition. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and the weekly charts show that higher prices possible in the next few weeks. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. Australian and European prices have also been relatively strong. Argentine Wheat is facing quality and yield losses after more rains hit growing areas last week. It is harvest time, so the big rains are causing damage and harvest delays.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions, although light rain is possible on Friday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, although a little snow is possible on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal in the west and near to above normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 524, 537, and 540 March. Support is at 511, 504, and 501 March, with resistance at 518, 520, and 530 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 524, 534, and 544 March. Support is at 498, 488, and 485 March, with resistance at 508, 517, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 580 March. Support is at 564, 557, and 553 March, and resistance is at 574, 576, and 578 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday on the weaker US Dollar and hopes for some business with China. Reports of less Brazil production for the coming year due to cheap prices also helped support the market. Weekly charts still show a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved. There has been talk that China will now buy Rice as imports of US Rice are now permitted by the government, but no one thinks they will buy very much if they buy anything at all. The purchases that might be made should be done sooner rather than later given the current thaw in the trade war. It will probably take until the middle of this month to see much movement in Rice futures and cash markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather after some big rains today. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal today, then colder.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1069 and 1089 March. Support is at 1052, 1047, and 1042 March, with resistance at 1081, 1089, and 1098 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments:
Overnight News: Corn was slightly lower yesterday as demand ideas for US Corn remain. The export inspections report was not strong and helped keep futures prices weaker. USDA is shut down now, so any demand news will have to wait or will come from the commercials. There has been no talk of big sales so far. Petroleum markets are showing signs of completing a bottom on the charts now, and that means that ethanol demand could improve soon. Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets. Ethanol prices have also weakened and blenders no longer have a profit margin and have been cutting back on production. The Corn market seems to found increased selling interest when prices get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Trends are currently up on the daily charts and also mostly up on the weekly charts. But, Corn was not able to follow through to the upside yesterday as funds were on both sides of the market and overall basis levels in the interior are reported to be weak. Bad weather is in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina. Argentine areas could get some more big rains in the short-term, and these areas and southern Brazil look to stay generally wet. Central and northern Brazil should get more hot and dry weather.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 385 and 392 March. Support is at 379, 377, and 372 March, and resistance is at 384, 387, and 390 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 283, 290, and 306 March. Support is at 277, 274, and 271 March, and resistance is at 282, 284, and 286 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little higher. Soybean Oi was a little lower. Trends are turning up again on the weekly charts for Soybeans. Some talk that China might be buying again supported a good rally in both Soybeans and Soybean Meal. There were reports that they bought anywhere from 180,000 tons to about 1.0 million tons yesterday as the need the Soybeans for government buffer stocks. There was no way to confirm the sales if any were made. South American weather has been less than perfect this year as it has often been too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul. These weather trends continued as forecasts call for more of the same this week. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain. Private estimates range from about 115 million tons to about 121 million tons right now. That means the crop could be less than a year ago despite increased planted area.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 942 March. Support is at 913, 910, and 900 March, and resistance is at 929, 936, and 941 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 326.00 and 336.00 March. Support is at 319.00, 317.00, and 315.00 March, and resistance is at 327.00, 334.00, and 335.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2830, 2790, and 2760 March, with resistance at 2890, 2910, and 2950 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed along with strength in the Canadian Dollar and also Chicago, and world economic fears. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting, and overall demand is said to be light right now. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend. Palm Oil was a little lower in consolidation trading and in sympathy with a stronger Ringgit. Traders expect big stocks in the monthly MPOB estimates next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 483.00, 480.00, and 477.00 March, with resistance at 487.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2275 and 2450 March. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2070 March, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 March.

MPOB – Malaysia palm oil supply and demand data in Dec – Consensus
Observation period : Dec
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Thursday, 10 Jan
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 3.6%
Exports – 1.44 mil tonnes, Up 4.7%
Ending Stocks – 3.14 mil tonnes, Up 4.3%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.85 mil tonnes, Up 6.1%
Exports – 1.38 mil tonnes, Down 12.9%
Ending Stocks – 3.01 mil tonnes, Up 10.0%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for precipitation late this week or this weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 40 March 145 March 80 March 23 March 2 March
February 48 March 80 March 24 March
March 50 March 80 March 23 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
January
February 48 March -11 March
March 42 March -12 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 7
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 472.40 dn 3.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 505.10 up 7.70
2 Can 492.10 up 7.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 515.10 dn 0.30
2 Can 502.10 dn 0.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 530.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 537.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 547.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 567.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jan 535.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 542.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 572.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 517.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 390.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,090 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 190 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1170)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 106,850 lots, or 3.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,216 3,216 3,206 3,206 3,247 3,214 -33 58 196
Mar-19 3,255 3,267 3,245 3,267 3,247 3,250 3 14 2,278
May-19 3,431 3,450 3,413 3,445 3,429 3,434 5 103,098 143,024
Jul-19 – – – 3,460 3,460 3,460 0 0 6
Sep-19 3,497 3,505 3,478 3,499 3,486 3,493 7 3,346 14,890
Nov-19 – – – 3,502 3,502 3,502 0 0 14
Jan-20 3,511 3,513 3,496 3,504 3,500 3,508 8 334 1,802
Corn
Turnover: 507,968 lots, or 9.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,828 1,828 1,828 1,828 1,828 1,828 0 1,390 17,782
Mar-19 1,849 1,850 1,839 1,846 1,848 1,844 -4 14,086 24,048
May-19 1,852 1,852 1,835 1,838 1,853 1,841 -12 426,088 1,208,024
Jul-19 1,879 1,879 1,861 1,867 1,877 1,867 -10 724 12,840
Sep-19 1,890 1,890 1,869 1,875 1,886 1,875 -11 65,014 325,832
Nov-19 1,908 1,908 1,894 1,900 1,909 1,900 -9 666 1,374
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,037,486 lots, or 28.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 2,850 2,850 2,738 2,839 2,848 2,837 -11 1,124 5,490
Mar-19 2,836 2,840 2,804 2,809 2,826 2,820 -6 148,000 168,750
May-19 2,707 2,708 2,674 2,677 2,698 2,688 -10 807,798 1,435,164
Jul-19 2,697 2,697 2,672 2,675 2,684 2,686 2 1,468 8,610
Aug-19 2,709 2,729 2,700 2,700 2,713 2,709 -4 8 244
Sep-19 2,728 2,736 2,704 2,706 2,724 2,717 -7 77,912 357,746
Nov-19 2,746 2,747 2,721 2,723 2,734 2,735 1 1,152 2,372
Dec-19 2,752 2,752 2,735 2,736 2,740 2,745 5 24 42
Palm Oil
Turnover: 560,018 lots, or 26.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,192 4,300 4,192 4,268 4,234 4,272 38 570 9,814
Feb-19 4,614 4,614 4,614 4,614 4,498 4,614 116 2 32
Mar-19 – – – 4,744 4,626 4,744 118 0 14
Apr-19 – – – 4,790 4,670 4,790 120 0 18
May-19 4,626 4,686 4,610 4,666 4,630 4,652 22 529,304 457,866
Jun-19 4,678 4,678 4,678 4,678 4,668 4,678 10 2 54
Jul-19 – – – 4,722 4,712 4,722 10 0 24
Aug-19 – – – 4,724 4,724 4,724 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,686 4,730 4,662 4,716 4,690 4,698 8 30,132 58,108
Oct-19 – – – 4,740 4,740 4,740 0 0 26
Nov-19 4,746 4,838 4,746 4,838 4,748 4,804 56 8 98
Dec-19 – – – 4,908 4,852 4,908 56 0 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 500,314 lots, or 27.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 5,060 5,118 5,060 5,118 5,062 5,062 0 2,106 25,712
Mar-19 5,204 5,204 5,116 5,196 5,104 5,170 66 32 184
May-19 5,540 5,610 5,514 5,598 5,528 5,558 30 437,316 713,178
Jul-19 5,612 5,612 5,612 5,612 5,540 5,612 72 2 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,574 5,504 5,574 70 0 2
Sep-19 5,608 5,658 5,576 5,646 5,598 5,612 14 60,856 149,418
Nov-19 – – – 5,620 5,606 5,620 14 0 4
Dec-19 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,676 5,640 -36 2 12
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322