About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 08, 2019 497 Jan 03, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 08, 2019 37 Dec 31, 2018
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 08, 2019 31 Jan 03, 2019
ETHANOL January Jan. 08, 2019 246 Jan 02, 2019
SOYBEAN January Jan. 08, 2019 1139 Jan 04, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Winter Wheat markets were a little higher on Friday and higher for the week. Chicago SRW held support near 500 March, but could not turn weekly trends up again. A weaker US Dollar was supportive to the US Wheat price, but the lack of new demand news hurt. World markets were firm, and US FOB prices are at of below just about all of the competition. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and the weekly charts show that higher prices possible in the next few weeks. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. Australian and European prices have also been relatively strong. Argentine Wheat is facing quality and yield losses after more rains hit growing areas last week. It is harvest time, so the big rains are causing damage and harvest delays.
Overnight News: The Great Plains should get some light precipitation today, then dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get light snow today, then dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal in the north and above normal in the south.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 524, 537, and 540 March. Support is at 511, 504, and 501 March, with resistance at 520, 530, and 538 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 524, 534, and 544 March. Support is at 498, 488, and 485 March, with resistance at 508, 517, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 580 March. Support is at 564, 557, and 553 March, and resistance is at 574, 576, and 578 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little higher on Friday, and also higher for the week. Weekly charts still show a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved. Basis levels remain generally firm as the market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time, and prices are too cheap for them right now. The export demand is holding relatively strong, and there is some mill demand. There has been talk that China will now buy Rice as imports of US Rice are now permitted by the government, but no one thinks they will buy very much if they buy anything at all. The purchases that might be made should be done sooner rather than later given the current thaw in the trade war. It will probably take until the middle of this month to see much movement in Rice futures and cash markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather after some big rains today. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal today, then colder.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 982 March. Support is at 1042, 1031, and 1027 March, with resistance at 1050, 1052, and 1056 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments:
Overnight News: Corn was slightly higher on Friday and higher for the week as demand ideas for US Corn remain strong. USDA is shut down now, so any demand news will have to wait or will come from the commercials. However, export inspections reports are still being published and the Corn export pace has been very good. Petroleum markets are showing signs of completing a bottom on the charts now, and that means that ethanol demand could improve soon. Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets. Ethanol prices have also weakened and blenders no longer have a profit margin and have been cutting back on production. The Corn market seems to found increased selling interest when prices get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Trends are currently up on the daily charts and also mostly up on the weekly charts. Bad weather is in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina. Argentine areas could get some more big rains in the short-term, and these areas and southern Brazil look to stay generally wet. Central and northern Brazil should get more hot and dry weather.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 385 and 392 March. Support is at 379, 377, and 372 March, and resistance is at 384, 387, and 390 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 283, 290, and 306 March. Support is at 277, 274, and 271 March, and resistance is at 282, 284, and 286 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little higher. Trends are turning up again on the weekly charts for Soybeans. Some talk last week that China might be buying again supported a good rally in both Soybeans and Soybean Meal. There was no way to confirm the sales if any were made, but nearby basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico were a little firmer on the week. USDA will not be confirming any new sales due to the partial shutdown of the US government. China bought US Soybeans to fulfill its part of an agreement made in Buenos Aires, and might have completed the promised sales with the purchases over the last couple of weeks. However, the market knows that there are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. Soybeans are once again turning into a weather market. South American weather has been less than perfect this year as it has often been too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul. These weather trends continued last week as forecasts for a change in the overall South American weather trends did not verify. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain. Private estimates range from about 115 million tons to about 121 million tons right now. That means the crop could be less than a year ago despite increased planted area.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 922 and 942 March. Support is at 910, 900, and 893 March, and resistance is at 925, 929, and 936 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 326.00 and 336.00 March. Support is at 315.00, 314.00, and 312.00 March, and resistance is at 219.00, 322.00, and 327.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2790, 2760, and 2740 March, with resistance at 2890, 2910, and 2950 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with strength in the Canadian Dollar and world economic fears. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend. Palm Oil was a little lower in consolidation trading and in sympathy with a stronger Ringgit. Traders expect big stocks in the monthly MPOB estimates next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 485.00, 483.00, and 480.00 March, with resistance at 490.00, 494.00, and 496.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2275 and 2450 March. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2070 March, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 March.

DJ Indonesia’s Palm Oil Stockpiles Shrink as Local Consumption Rises — Market Talk
1127 GMT – Indonesian palm oil stockpiles dropped further in November as domestic consumption improved, according to data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki. The group puts palm oil stocks at 3.9 million metric tons, down from 4.4 million tons in October. Gapki attributes the monthly drop to weaker production as well as to the slight increase in demand, which may support prices. Palm oil production eased to 4.2 million tons in November from 4.5 million tons in October, while demand climbed to 1.5 million tons from 1.4 million tons over the same period. (vibhuti.agarwal@wsj.com)

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jan 4
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the two weeks ended Dec. 30, 2018. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2945.8 815.6 219.0 295.2 45.4 1090.7 355.9 331.4 6879.1
Week ago 2931.4 792.4 190.0 305.6 45.2 1315.3 376.7 272.1 7050.5
Year ago 2859.3 610.1 188.9 279.8 76.7 1230.5 273.9 88.3 6329.1
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 778.2 91.6 54.6 145.7 10.2 512.6 84.1 18.9 1792.2
Week Ago 561.6 85.1 44.2 82.4 7.2 448.9 89.4 9.8 1422.0
To Date 9675.8 1555.7 1032.2 1597.9 149.5 8278.2 1581.7 252.8 26255.5
Year Ago 7759.2 1611.0 1042.4 1256.3 210.6 8904.1 1388.4 242.7 24646.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 799.5 160.1 34.7 60.2 0.1 428.0 117.6 99.6 1965.0
Week Ago 466.7 112.8 14.3 21.0 0.0 181.8 35.4 61.9 1075.8
To Date 9608.5 1807.1 245.3 943.4 62.2 4595.2 887.6 566.4 23617.9
Year Ago 8027.8 2148.5 76.7 737.9 131.3 5088.7 916.2 414.5 21729.4
EXPORTS
This Week 744.4 174.4 33.4 39.6 3.4 411.7 73.1 173.2 1946.0
Week Ago 322.6 75.8 42.0 2.6 0.8 245.8 21.3 31.0 1028.5
To Date 7980.9 1460.2 732.1 972.4 116.6 4345.5 854.9 751.7 20711.9
Year Ago 6602.8 1565.6 653.2 770.3 154.1 4624.0 951.1 375.3 18582.6
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE – Note: Large revisions have been reported by
licensed elevators that affected Crop Year to Date totals this week.
This Week 217.4 2.0 7.6 42.2 2.8 363.2 5.2 41.5 779.8
Week Ago 96.9 2.2 4.9 30.5 1.5 183.6 5.7 28.0 379.2
To Date 1914.6 144.9 123.2 475.5 22.8 3820.0 91.2 529.1 8450.2
Year Ago 2224.0 354.0 108.4 531.2 23.4 3955.5 93.6 306.1 9028.9
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

MPOB – Malaysia palm oil supply and demand data in Dec – Consensus
Observation period : Dec
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Thursday, 10 Jan
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 3.6%
Exports – 1.44 mil tonnes, Up 4.7%
Ending Stocks – 3.14 mil tonnes, Up 4.3%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.85 mil tonnes, Up 6.1%
Exports – 1.38 mil tonnes, Down 12.9%
Ending Stocks – 3.01 mil tonnes, Up 10.0%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for precipitation today in southern areas and then at the beginning of next week in all areas. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 40 March 141 March 80 March 24 March 2 March
February 51 March 80 March 24 March
March 51 March 80 March 23 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
January
February 47 March -11 March
March 44 March -11 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 4
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 476.10 up 0.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 497.40 dn 3.70
2 Can 484.40 dn 3.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 515.40 dn 3.70
2 Can 502.40 dn 3.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 525.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 535.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 545.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 565.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jan 530.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 540.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 550.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 570.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 512.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 365.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,090 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 189 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1120)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 129,176 lots, or 4.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,250 3,253 3,216 3,216 3,248 3,247 -1 246 1,758
Mar-19 3,256 3,283 3,220 3,254 3,264 3,247 -17 44 2,286
May-19 3,434 3,456 3,409 3,431 3,441 3,429 -12 123,832 143,116
Jul-19 – – – 3,460 3,460 3,460 0 0 6
Sep-19 3,495 3,506 3,466 3,493 3,493 3,486 -7 4,854 14,534
Nov-19 – – – 3,502 3,502 3,502 0 0 14
Jan-20 3,501 3,510 3,490 3,510 3,505 3,500 -5 200 1,530
Corn
Turnover: 537,274 lots, or 9.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,828 1,828 1,828 1,828 1,840 1,828 -12 1,000 17,382
Mar-19 1,855 1,855 1,843 1,850 1,855 1,848 -7 12,096 24,120
May-19 1,865 1,867 1,848 1,853 1,864 1,853 -11 444,886 1,151,884
Jul-19 1,889 1,889 1,872 1,880 1,887 1,877 -10 2,772 12,766
Sep-19 1,891 1,895 1,880 1,890 1,891 1,886 -5 75,902 309,310
Nov-19 1,917 1,917 1,905 1,911 1,915 1,909 -6 618 1,350
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,399,828 lots, or 38.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 2,816 2,850 2,816 2,847 2,842 2,848 6 980 5,492
Mar-19 2,820 2,860 2,810 2,833 2,808 2,826 18 164,980 164,412
May-19 2,695 2,715 2,685 2,697 2,687 2,698 11 1,069,944 1,443,010
Jul-19 2,684 2,696 2,673 2,692 2,673 2,684 11 3,756 8,724
Aug-19 2,713 2,713 2,713 2,713 2,699 2,713 14 2 242
Sep-19 2,725 2,738 2,710 2,726 2,712 2,724 12 158,768 356,888
Nov-19 2,737 2,753 2,727 2,742 2,725 2,734 9 1,388 2,132
Dec-19 2,733 2,758 2,728 2,750 2,707 2,740 33 10 26
Palm Oil
Turnover: 313,794 lots, or 14.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,200 4,246 4,200 4,238 4,176 4,234 58 224 10,284
Feb-19 – – – 4,498 4,438 4,498 60 0 32
Mar-19 – – – 4,626 4,564 4,626 62 0 14
Apr-19 – – – 4,670 4,670 4,670 0 0 18
May-19 4,650 4,666 4,606 4,634 4,618 4,630 12 286,500 430,072
Jun-19 – – – 4,668 4,668 4,668 0 0 54
Jul-19 4,714 4,714 4,712 4,712 4,678 4,712 34 6 24
Aug-19 – – – 4,724 4,724 4,724 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,732 4,732 4,668 4,690 4,684 4,690 6 26,946 56,976
Oct-19 4,740 4,740 4,740 4,740 4,670 4,740 70 10 26
Nov-19 4,744 4,784 4,744 4,744 4,786 4,748 -38 100 94
Dec-19 4,860 4,860 4,850 4,850 4,720 4,852 132 8 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 346,088 lots, or 19.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 5,060 5,060 5,058 5,060 5,028 5,062 34 156 36,002
Mar-19 5,104 5,116 5,100 5,116 5,116 5,104 -12 14 204
May-19 5,552 5,558 5,506 5,536 5,518 5,528 10 300,912 697,724
Jul-19 – – – 5,540 5,540 5,540 0 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 5,504 5,496 5,504 8 0 2
Sep-19 5,616 5,626 5,572 5,604 5,590 5,598 8 45,002 137,396
Nov-19 – – – 5,606 5,598 5,606 8 0 4
Dec-19 5,690 5,690 5,664 5,664 5,660 5,676 16 4 12
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322