About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337


Despite the lack of USDA data due to the gov’t shutdown, Mar Beans flourished this week – gaining 27 cents while closing on 3-week highs!  The mkt rode the back of US/China trade optimism & extreme Brazil dryness –along with strong “macro mkt” performances from the DJI (up 750 points) & Crude Oil (up 1.22)!!


  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 677,679 (700 -1,000) – once again, no wkly Sales #’s  or 8am sales this week due to the gov’t shutdown
  • JAN USDA FINAL #’s – which were due out this Friday – have been postponed until the gov’t is back at work – so more “flying blind” for traders who also have been without export sales and commitment of traders! PLEASE MR TRUMP & CONGRESS – GET IT TOGETHER!!
  • TRADE PROGRESS – a 2nd US delegation has travelled to Bejing to further try to hammer out a trade agreement – the rhetoric surrounding this meeting has been positive – both the US & China’s economies are floundering –partially due to the tariffs – so it’s in both their best interests to resolve!!
  • SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER WOES – simply put, Brazil is too dry & Argentina is too wet – the once record Brazilian Bean forecast has been ratcheted down from 122-124 MMT to 115-118!
  • SPEC MONEY IS SHIFTING – out of record high stocks to cheap commodities and why not?
  • MACRO MKTS – the all-important “outside mkts” always remind us that the grains don’t trade in a vacuum – Friday, for a change, they were a friend of the grain complex – with a sharply higher crude oil & stock mkt & a lower $$. Granted, we have record global stocks – but that’s why we’re on 10 year lows ! Newer, untraded-on news would be a resumption of some kind of export normalcy with China – which would go a long way in whittling down these stocks!!




The Mar Corn turned in a respectable performance this week – gaining 8 cents & closing on a 2 wk high!! The rally was due to several factors – coat-tailing Mar Beans, feeding off the potential that a trade deal will mean 3-5 MMT of China corn exports & hoping that crude oil’s freefall has given way to “cratering” & a solid low!!  Positive unemployment #’s & dovish remarks from the Fed Reserve Chief helped the DJI to a 700 point gain while the crude oil was the beneficiary of friendly OPEC rhetoric!  S/A weather issues could be a major mkt mover for corn – especially given that its  US/Global stocks aren’t nearly as plentiful as beans!



Various factors impacted the Mar Wht contract but the positives outweighed the negatives as the contract eked out a weekly 6 cent gain!  The major bearish influence –Russia unrelenting export pace – may be finally getting dialed in!  The mkt is also concerned that next week’s rebalancing may lead to some index selling. But more than offsetting these were the Argentine wht crop shortfall & the corn & bean rallies to start the year!  We feel the single most important factor for wht is the simple fact that US Wheat is the cheapest in the world – which should significantly open up its exports!!


After an impressive $8.00 upside run (117-125) since Mid-Nov, Feb Cat became overbought & quite vulnerable to a correction – & indeed, it began on Mon with a major technical reversal- with new highs followed by a lower close! The slide was exacerbated by a healthy premium to cash & bearish weather (unseasonably warm temps)!  So in total, the contract has corrected about 40 % (125-122)!  However, with the excellent demand we’ve seen for cattle this past Fall, current levels could offer an excellent buying opportunity!




Feb Hogs had a completely reverse-dynamic to Feb Cat – having broken $9.00 since Mid-Nov (69-60) off burdensome pork & poultry supplies that demand could not offset! So the contract came into 2019 very oversold!  And the mkt was rescued by pervasive trade optimism ahead of the coming “Bejing Trade Meeting” and lingering fears of a menacing asian swine flu – with new cases cropping up daily! Both imply much better “export flow” –just what the Dr.  ordered! And the mkt responded accordingly this week with a $1.20 gain!



141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1340A, Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (855) 264-6673 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

To SUBSCRIBE to the AGMASTER please go to http://bit.ly/xIGR6x.

To Unsubscribe from the AGMASTER please send an email to offers@pricegroup.com.


View the AGMASTER Archives at http://blog.pricegroup.com/tag/agmaster.

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337        
WP Facebook Auto Publish Powered By : XYZScripts.com