About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 07, 2019 288 Jan 02, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 07, 2019 50 Dec 31, 2018
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 07, 2019 162 Jan 03, 2019
SOYBEAN January Jan. 07, 2019 1100 Jan 03, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat closed higher on hopes for new business as the US Dollar moved sharply lower. World markets were firm, and US prices are more than competitive in world markets. US prices remain at or below those from Russia and Europe, and ideas are that the US can start to finally see more business as the quality of the US crop is good.. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. European prices have also been relatively strong. Argentine prices have firmed as well due to problems with the last of the harvest due to too much rain. The crop might have suffered some quality damage.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 511, 504, and 501 March, with resistance at 518, 520, and 530 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 498, 488, and 485 March, with resistance at 508, 517, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 568 and 580 March. Support is at 557, 553, and 545 March, and resistance is at 568, 574, and 576 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday along with the other grains and oilseeds. Weekly charts show a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved. Basis levels remain generally firm as the market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time. The export demand is holding relatively strong, and there is some mill demand. There is some speculation that China will move to buy some US Rice this year to help boost the trade talks, but ideas are that any amount purchase would be small and would not do a lot for reducing US supplies.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather after some big rains today. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal today, then colder.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 982 March. Support is at 1027, 1019, and 1010 March, with resistance at 1050, 1052, and 1056 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher in sympathy with the rallies in Soybeans and Wheat. A sharply lower US Dollar made US Corn more competitive in the world market and added to buying interest in Chicago. There was no fresh demand news, but there is some talk that China is about to buy some US Corn. USDA is shut down, so any demand news will have to wait or will come from the commercials. Gulf basis levels were mixed yesterday. The Corn market seems to found increased selling interest when prices get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets. Ethanol prices have also weakened. Crude Oil futures are showing that a short-term low could be forming, and a rally in the petroleum complex would be good news for Corn demand for ethanol.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 385 and 392 March. Support is at 377, 372, and 370 March, and resistance is at 380, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 277, 274, and 271 March, and resistance is at 282, 284, and 286 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on more talk of Chinese demand and ideas that the South American production is getting smaller. Some talk surfaced yesterday that China could have bought the last 2.0 million ton tranche to fulfill its commitments made in Buenos Aires. There was no way to confirm the sales if any were made, and nearby basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico were mixed. USDA will not be confirming any new sales due to the partial shutdown of the US government. South American weather has been less than perfect this year as it has often been too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul. These trends are continuing this week despite forecasts for a pattern change. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain. Private estimates range from about 120 million tons to about 123 million tons right now and could move lower in the weather patterns continue as they are. That means the crop could be less than a year ago if the lower estimates prove to be true.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 900, 893, and 889 March, and resistance is at 916, 925, and 929 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 312.00, and 310.00 March, and resistance is at 319.00, 321.00, and 322.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2790, 2760, and 2740 March, with resistance at 2850, 2890, and 2910 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed to a little lower along with strength in the Canadian Dollar and world economic fears. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend. Palm Oil was a little higher on strength in outside markets. Traders expect big stocks in the monthly MPOB estimates next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 485.00, 483.00, and 480.00 March, with resistance at 490.00, 494.00, and 496.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2275 and 2450 March. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2070 March, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 March.

MPOB – Malaysia palm oil supply and demand data in Dec – Consensus
Observation period : Dec
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Thursday, 10 Jan
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 3.6%
Exports – 1.44 mil tonnes, Up 4.7%
Ending Stocks – 3.14 mil tonnes, Up 4.3%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.85 mil tonnes, Up 6.1%
Exports – 1.38 mil tonnes, Down 12.9%
Ending Stocks – 3.01 mil tonnes, Up 10.0%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for precipitation today in southern areas and then at the beginning of next week in all areas. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 40 March 141 March 80 March 24 March 3 March
February 46 March 80 March 24 March
March 51 March 80 March 25 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
January
February -13 March
March 45 March -13 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 3
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 475.80 up 13.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 501.10 up 0.30
2 Can 488.10 up 0.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 519.10 up 0.30
2 Can 506.10 up 0.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 525.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 535.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 545.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 562.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jan 530.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 540.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 550.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 567.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 510.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 365.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,100 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 191 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1372)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 105,906 lots, or 3.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,250 3,250 3,228 3,228 3,236 3,248 12 84 4,196
Mar-19 3,273 3,285 3,254 3,277 3,260 3,264 4 38 2,300
May-19 3,409 3,460 3,409 3,438 3,439 3,441 2 101,052 135,382
Jul-19 – – – 3,460 3,454 3,460 6 0 6
Sep-19 3,486 3,506 3,475 3,491 3,489 3,493 4 4,636 13,980
Nov-19 – – – 3,502 3,502 3,502 0 0 14
Jan-20 3,506 3,509 3,492 3,509 3,501 3,505 4 96 1,490
Corn
Turnover: 376,816 lots, or 7.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,840 1,840 1,840 1,840 1,834 1,840 6 98 17,982
Mar-19 1,863 1,863 1,851 1,854 1,857 1,855 -2 9,384 24,256
May-19 1,870 1,871 1,859 1,863 1,866 1,864 -2 329,878 1,123,756
Jul-19 1,893 1,893 1,883 1,886 1,891 1,887 -4 810 13,058
Sep-19 1,894 1,896 1,887 1,891 1,892 1,891 -1 36,458 310,366
Nov-19 1,915 1,917 1,913 1,917 1,914 1,915 1 188 1,304
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,481,886 lots, or 40.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 2,832 2,869 2,691 2,850 2,832 2,842 10 2,048 6,772
Mar-19 2,776 2,825 2,776 2,815 2,772 2,808 36 188,616 161,432
May-19 2,663 2,703 2,659 2,698 2,654 2,687 33 1,152,956 1,473,888
Jul-19 2,654 2,687 2,654 2,678 2,644 2,673 29 4,186 9,170
Aug-19 2,699 2,700 2,699 2,700 2,680 2,699 19 8 242
Sep-19 2,692 2,728 2,688 2,720 2,687 2,712 25 132,550 380,500
Nov-19 2,704 2,737 2,704 2,734 2,702 2,725 23 1,520 1,874
Dec-19 2,707 2,707 2,707 2,707 2,703 2,707 4 2 22
Palm Oil
Turnover: 345,170 lots, or 15.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,146 4,250 4,146 4,200 4,146 4,176 30 276 10,390
Feb-19 – – – 4,438 4,408 4,438 30 0 32
Mar-19 – – – 4,564 4,532 4,564 32 0 14
Apr-19 – – – 4,670 4,638 4,670 32 0 18
May-19 4,610 4,636 4,598 4,634 4,608 4,618 10 318,092 414,410
Jun-19 – – – 4,668 4,658 4,668 10 0 54
Jul-19 – – – 4,678 4,668 4,678 10 0 24
Aug-19 – – – 4,724 4,724 4,724 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,700 4,700 4,668 4,696 4,686 4,684 -2 26,802 57,106
Oct-19 – – – 4,670 4,670 4,670 0 0 26
Nov-19 – – – 4,786 4,788 4,786 -2 0 14
Dec-19 – – – 4,720 4,722 4,720 -2 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 322,368 lots, or 17.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 5,040 5,050 5,022 5,050 4,948 5,028 80 212 43,018
Mar-19 5,128 5,130 5,102 5,128 5,098 5,116 18 14 204
May-19 5,518 5,540 5,502 5,540 5,490 5,518 28 280,622 688,042
Jul-19 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 0 2 18
Aug-19 – – – 5,496 5,496 5,496 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,584 5,610 5,578 5,610 5,572 5,590 18 41,518 134,056
Nov-19 – – – 5,598 5,580 5,598 18 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,660 5,642 5,660 18 0 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322