Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: March Bonds are currently 14 higher at 147’06, 10 Yr. Notes 6 higher at 122’12.0 and 5 Yr. Notes 3.75 higher at 114’25.75. Bonds are up about 2’00 for the week and the 10 yr. slightly more than 1’00 even though the difference in yield between these two vehicles has widened from 26 basis points to 33 basis points as the market has once again gone “risk off” and treasuries benefit from the flight to safety. At this point in time the market has discounted the possibility of a rate hike in March 2019. I am now looking at Eurodollar spreads and recommending the long June 2019/ short Dec. 2019 spread a 4 points premium the Dec.
Grains: Mar. Corn is currently 1’6 higher at 377’4, March Beans unchanged at 907’0 and Wheat up 2’6 at 509’4.We remain short Corn from above 382’0. Either take profits or lower your protective buy stop to 380’4.
Cattle: Live Cattle remain firm, but about 100 points off of recent highs at 123.625 as of yesterday’s close. Feeder Cattle have worked a bit lower as the FC Index broke 2.60 over the Holiday weekend. I remain short from above the 122.00 level.
Silver: Silver is currently about 3 cents higher overnight at 16.685 and up 26 cents from last week. If you are holding multiple contracts take partial profits. We are approaching resistance at the 15.78-15.90 level. Raise your protective sell stop from 14.75 to 14.93. If the market trades and holds above 15.78 raise your stop to 15.38. My near term objective to 16.20.
S&P’s: Mar. S&P’s are currently 28.00 lower at 2483.00 after making an overnight low at 2462.5 in response to lowered sales expectations of Apple I Phones in China, a further indication of a slowing economy. My feeling is that the market is getting a little ahead of itself on the downside. Treat as a trading affair between 2450.0 and 2515.00.
Currencies: As of this writing the March Euro is currently higher at 2.14240, the Yen 121 higher at 0.93315, the Pound 25 lower at 1.2635 and the Dollar Index 20.3 lower 96.220. We remain long the Yen and short the Dollar Index. The Yen has rallied 250 points in the last week as it has become the default currency of value at the moment. Also given their low-interest rate, traders are borrowing Yen to finance more speculative investments. The Dollar Index is roughly 20 lower for the week.