Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 03, 2019 514 Dec 21, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 03, 2019 835 Dec 28, 2018
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 03, 2019 16 Dec 28, 2018
SOYBEAN January Jan. 03, 2019 4 Dec 28, 2018
General Comments Wheat closed a little higher on hopes for new business. World markets were firm, and US prices are competitive in world markets. US prices remain at or below those from Russia and Europe, and ideas are that the US can start to finally see more business as the quality of the US crop is good.. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. European prices have also been relatively strong. Argentine prices have firmed as well due to problems with the last of the harvest due to too much rain. The crop might have suffered some quality damage.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions after some big precipitation today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 504, 501, and 500 March, with resistance at 510, 514, and 518 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 488, 485, and 483 March, with resistance at 499, 503, and 508 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 545, 542, and 536 March, and resistance is at 557, 559, and 564 March.
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday after making new highs for the move at the opening. Selling was found at that time and continued for most of the rest of the day. Some local buying brought prices to the close from the lows of the day. All in all it was a disappointing session as the market could not hold the early rally and closed slightly lower instead. Weekly charts show a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved. Basis levels remain generally firm as the market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time. The export demand is holding relatively strong, and there is some mill demand. There is some speculation that China will move to buy some US Rice this year to help boost the trade talks, but ideas are that any amount purchase would be small and would not do a lot for reducing US supplies.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather after some big rains today. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal today, then colder.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 982 March. Support is at 1027, 1019, and 1010 March, with resistance at 1043, 1050, and 1052 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher in sympathy with the rallies in Soybeans and Wheat. There was no demand news, but there is some talk that China is about to buy some US Corn. USDA is shut down now, so any demand news will have to wait or will come from the commercials. Gulf basis levels were stronger yesterday. The Corn market seems to found increased selling interest when prices get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets. Ethanol prices have also weakened and blenders no longer have a profit margin and are cutting back on production. Crude Oil futures are showing that a short-term low could be forming, and a rally in the petroleum complex would be good news for Corn demand for ethanol.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 372, 370, and 367 March, and resistance is at 380, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 270 and 254 March. Support is at 274, 271, and 263 March, and resistance is at 278, 280, and 282 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on rumors of new Chinese demand and ideas that the South American production is getting smaller. Some talk surfaced yesterday that China might be buying again and ould buy the last 2.0 million ton tranche to fulfill its commitments made in Buenos Aires. There was no way to confirm the sales if any were made, but nearby basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico were a little firmer. USDA will not be confirming any new sales due to the partial shutdown of the US government. South American weather has been less than perfect this year as it has often been too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul. These trends are continuing this week despite forecasts for a pattern change. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain. Private estimates range from about 120 million tons to about 123 million tons right now and ould move lower in the weather patterns continue as they are. That means the crop could be slightly bigger or slightly less than a year ago with a bias to a lower crop.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 8902, 893, and 889 March, and resistance is at 910, 916, and 925 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 310.00, and 307.00 March, and resistance is at 317.00, 319.00, and 321.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2740 and 2720 March. Support is at 2790, 2760, and 2740 March, with resistance at 2850, 2890, and 2910 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with the outside markets. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend. Palm Oil was a little lower on long liquidation. India cut its edible oils import taxes this week to provide support.. Weaker world vegetable oils prices were a drag on Palm Oil. The Malaysian government is looking at reducing its export taxes as a way to move Palm Oil. Traders are looking for Indonesian production data to see if production there has become less.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 485.00, 483.00, and 480.00 March, with resistance at 490.00, 494.00, and 496.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2275 and 2450 March. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2070 March, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 March.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for precipitation today and tomorrow in southern areas and then at the beginning of next week in all areas. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 43 March 140 March 80 March 23 March 3 March
February 48 March 80 March 21 March
March 51 March 80 March 23 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
January -9 March
February 48 March
March -14 March
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 2
WINNIPEG, Jan. 2 (CNS Canada) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
*Par Region 462.76 dn 0.40
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 500.80 up 6.60
2 Can 487.80 up 6.60
1 Can 518.80 up 12.60
2 Can 505.80 up 12.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (firstname.lastname@example.org, or