Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 31
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 27, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/27/2018 12/20/2018 12/28/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 6,191 18,182
CORN 913,797 996,769 726,499 17,904,084 10,588,361
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 194 4,673
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 1,693 7,187
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 27,026 33,929 123,689 455,681 1,645,787
SOYBEANS 677,679 665,544 1,210,728 16,514,016 28,394,170
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 376,281 577,950 275,069 12,671,336 14,551,836
Total 1,994,783 2,274,192 2,335,985 47,553,195 55,210,220
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 03, 2019 514 Dec 21, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 03, 2019 835 Dec 28, 2018
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 03, 2019 16 Dec 28, 2018
SOYBEAN January Jan. 03, 2019 4 Dec 28, 2018
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were mixed to lower for the week, with Chicago SRW the strongest market. Minneapolis was the weakest market. Futures wee a little lower on Monday. World markets were firm. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and the weekly charts show that higher prices possible in the next few weeks. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. Australian and European prices have also been relatively strong. Argentine prices showed a little weakness last week as the weather in the country is about to turn drier and more favorable for the remaining Wheat crop to be harvested. The crop might have suffered some quality damage.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions after some big precipitation today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 508 March. Support is at 507, 504, and 500 March, with resistance at 518, 520, and 530 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 491, 485, and 483 March, with resistance at 499, 503, and 508 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 545, 542, and 536 March, and resistance is at 557, 559, and 564 March.
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little higher on Friday, but sharply lower for the week in continued slow trading. Weekly charts show a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved. The holiday period is usually very quiet for the US cash market, and this year has seen a slow trade and stable prices. Basis levels remain generally firm as the market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time. The export demand is holding relatively strong, and there is some mill demand. It will probably take until the middle of next month to see much movement in Rice futures and cash markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather after some big rains today. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal today, then colder.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 982 March. Support is at 1019, 1010, and 1006 March, with resistance at 1043, 1050, and 1056 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher for the week, but a little lower on Monday. The holiday trade kept futures range bound as there was no real news. USDA is shut down now, so any demand news will have to wait or will come from the commercials. The Corn market seems to found increased selling interest when prices get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets. Ethanol prices have also weakened and blenders no longer have a profit margin and are cutting back on production. Crude Oil futures are showing that a short-term low could be forming, and a rally in the petroleum complex would be good news for Corn demand for ethanol. Better weather is in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina. Argentine areas could get some more big rains in the short-term, but these areas and southern Brazil look to generally turn drier. Central and northern Brazil should turn a little wetter after some very hot and dry weather.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 366 March. Support is at 372, 370, and 367 March, and resistance is at 380, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 270 and 254 March. Support is at 271, 263, and 260 March, and resistance is at 277, 278, and 280 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little lower last week, but Soybean Meal was a little higher. All futures were a little lower on Monday. Some talk on Friday that China might be buying again supported a good rally in both Soybeans and Soybean Meal. There was no way to confirm the sales if any were made, but nearby basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico were a little firmer on Friday. USDA will not be confirming any new sales due to the partial shutdown of the US government. China bought US Soybeans to fulfill its part of an agreement made in Buenos Aires, and it is expected to buy more in the next few weeks. However, the market knows that there are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. South American weather has been less than perfect this year as it has often been too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain. Private estimates range from about 120 million tons to about 123 million tons right now. That means the crop could be slightly bigger or slightly less than a year ago.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 875 and 844 March. Support is at 889, 881, and 871 March, and resistance is at 902, 906, and 910 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 310.00, and 307.00 March, and resistance is at 315.00, 317.00, and 319.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2740 and 2720 March. Support is at 2760, 2740, and 2720 March, with resistance at 2800, 2820, and 2850 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower along with the outside markets. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend. Palm Oil was higher as India cut its edible oils import taxes. Weaker world vegetable oils prices were a drag on Palm Oil. The Malaysian government is looking at reducing its export taxes as a way to move Palm Oil. Traders are looking for Indonesian production daa to see if production there has become less.
Overnight News: SGS said that December Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.339 million tons, from 1.241 million in November. ITS said that exports were 1.278 million tons, from 1.224 million last month. AmSpec Agri said exports were 1.273 million tons, from 1.250 million in November.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 483.00, 480.00, and 477.00 March, with resistance at 488.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2090, 2070, and 2040 March, with resistance at 2130, 2160, and 2180 March.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for precipitation today and tomorrow and then at the beginning of next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 43 March 144 March 80 March 21 March 3 March
February 50 March 82 March 22 March
March 50 March 84 March 23 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
February -14 March