About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 02, 2019 264 Nov 27, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 02, 2019 1299 Dec 27, 2018
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 02, 2019 666 Dec 28, 2018
SOYBEAN January Jan. 02, 2019 721 Dec 11, 2018

UPDATE 5-Trump says “big progress” on possible China trade deal –
30-Dec-2018 01:46:03 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
Adds more details from China foreign ministry
By Yeganeh Torbati and Ryan Woo
WASHINGTON/BEIJING, Dec 30 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Twitter that he had a “long and very good call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that a possible trade deal between the United States and China was progressing well.
As a partial shutdown of the U.S. government entered its eighth day, with no quick end in sight, the Republican president was in Washington, sending out tweets attacking Democrats and talking up possibly improved relations with China.
The two nations have been in a trade war for much of 2018, shaking world financial markets as the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods between the world’s two largest economies has been disrupted by tariffs. (Full Story)
Trump and Xi agreed to a ceasefire in the trade war, deciding to hold off on imposing more tariffs for 90 days starting Dec. 1 while they negotiate a deal to end the dispute following months of escalating tensions. (Full Story)
“Just had a long and very good call with President Xi of China,” Trump wrote on Saturday. “Deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!”
Chinese state media also said Xi and Trump spoke on Saturday, and quoted Xi as saying that teams from both countries have been working to implement a consensus reached with Trump.
“I hope that the two teams will meet each other half way, work hard, and strive to reach an agreement that is mutually beneficial and beneficial to the world as soon as possible,” Xi said, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.
China’s foreign ministry said on Sunday the two countries’ relationship had endured storms before, but that strong ties were important for the economies of both nations and for ensuring global stability and peace. (Full Story)
Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that Sino-U.S. ties now “stand at a historic new starting point” and that the two sides should respect each other’s sovereignty, security and development interest and appropriately manage differences.
“Both sides should stick to rationally and objectively viewing the other side’s strategic intentions, strengthen strategic communication and promote strategic mutual trust to prevent strategic misjudgments,” he said in a statement.

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were mixed to lower for the week, with Chicago SRW the strongest market. Minneapolis was the weakest market. World markets were firm. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and the weekly charts show that higher prices possible in the next few weeks. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. Australian and European prices have also been relatively strong. Argentine prices showed a little weakness last week as the weather in the country is about to turn drier and more favorable for the remaining Wheat crop to be harvested. The crop might have suffered some quality damage.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 508 March. Support is at 507, 504, and 500 March, with resistance at 518, 520, and 530 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 491, 485, and 483 March, with resistance at 499, 503, and 508 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 545, 542, and 536 March, and resistance is at 557, 559, and 564 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little higher on Friday, but sharply lower for the week in continued slow trading. Weekly charts show a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved. The holiday period is usually very quiet for the US cash market, and this year has seen a slow trade and stable prices. Basis levels remain generally firm as the market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time. The export demand is holding relatively strong, and there is some mill demand. It will probably take until the middle of next month to see much movement in Rice futures and cash markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather after some big rains today. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal today, then colder.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 982 March. Support is at 1019, 1010, and 1006 March, with resistance at 1043, 1050, and 1056 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher for the week. The holiday trade kept futures range bound as there was no real news. USDA is shut down now, so any demand news will have to wait or will come from the commercials. The Corn market seems to found increased selling interest when prices get close to the 390 March area, and has been able to find support near 370 March. Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets. Ethanol prices have also weakened and blenders no longer have a profit margin and are cutting back on production. Crude Oil futures are showing that a short-term low could be forming, and a rally in the petroleum complex would be good news for Corn demand for ethanol. Better weather is in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina. Argentine areas could get some more big rains in the short-term, but these areas and southern Brazil look to generally turn drier. Central and northern Brazil should turn a little wetter after some very hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 366 March. Support is at 372, 370, and 367 March, and resistance is at 380, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 270 and 254 March. Support is at 271, 263, and 260 March, and resistance is at 277, 278, and 280 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little lower last week, but Soybean Meal was a little higher. Some talk on Friday that China might be buying again supported a good rally in both Soybeans and Soybean Meal. There was no way to confirm the sales if any were made, but nearby basis levels at the Gulf of Mexico were a little firmer on Friday. USDA will not be confirming any new sales due to the partial shutdown of the US government. China bought US Soybeans to fulfill its part of an agreement made in Buenos Aires, and it is expected to buy more in the next few weeks. However, the market knows that there are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. South American weather has been less than perfect this year as it has often been too wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and too dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul. There have been reports of losses in the early harvest areas of western Parana and Mato Grosso, but the expectations of a big Brazil crop remain. Private estimates range from about 120 million tons to about 123 million tons right now. That means the crop could be slightly bigger or slightly less than a year ago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 875 and 844 March. Support is at 889, 881, and 871 March, and resistance is at 902, 906, and 910 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 310.00, and 307.00 March, and resistance is at 315.00, 317.00, and 319.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2740 and 2720 March. Support is at 2760, 2740, and 2720 March, with resistance at 2800, 2820, and 2850 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher along with the outside markets. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend. Palm Oil was mixed in consolidation trading. Weaker world vegetable oils prices were a drag on Palm Oil. The Malaysian government is looking at reducing its export taxes as a way to move Palm Oil. Traders are looking for Indonesian production data to see if production there has become less.
Overnight News: SGS said that December Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.339 million tons, from 1.241 million in November. ITS said that exports were 1.278 million tons, from 1.224 million last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 483.00, 480.00, and 477.00 March, with resistance at 488.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2090, 2070, and 2040 March, with resistance at 2130, 2160, and 2180 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for best precipitation today and tomorrow and then at the end of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal today, then trend to below normal for the middle of the week, then warmer again.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 35 March 140 March 75 March 31 January 3 January
January 39 March 80 March 21 March
February 47 March 83 March 23 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
December
January
February -14 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 27
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 462.06 dn 2.03
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 493.50 dn 4.20
2 Can 480.50 dn 4.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 505.50 dn 1.20
2 Can 492.50 dn 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 512.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 527.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 530.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 550.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jan 517.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 532.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 535.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 555.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 495.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 347.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,030 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 191 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1340)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 142,286 lots, or 4.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,150 3,166 3,145 3,150 3,159 3,158 -1 26,522 23,544
Mar-19 3,210 3,227 3,188 3,188 3,214 3,206 -8 226 2,390
May-19 3,386 3,420 3,382 3,406 3,381 3,398 17 109,910 147,616
Jul-19 3,418 3,418 3,418 3,418 3,479 3,418 -61 2 6
Sep-19 3,459 3,474 3,446 3,466 3,445 3,459 14 5,268 11,750
Nov-19 – – – 3,483 3,483 3,483 0 0 14
Jan-20 3,479 3,497 3,468 3,486 3,477 3,486 9 358 1,258
Corn
Turnover: 515,296 lots, or 9.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,848 1,849 1,838 1,840 1,841 1,842 1 11,438 41,142
Mar-19 1,850 1,860 1,848 1,856 1,847 1,855 8 1,994 22,568
May-19 1,855 1,870 1,854 1,869 1,853 1,864 11 441,448 1,160,368
Jul-19 1,874 1,886 1,874 1,886 1,874 1,881 7 384 12,466
Sep-19 1,880 1,891 1,880 1,889 1,878 1,885 7 59,480 324,232
Nov-19 1,903 1,912 1,903 1,911 1,901 1,906 5 552 1,306
Soymeal
Turnover: 935,240 lots, or 24.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 2,770 2,840 2,720 2,815 2,781 2,739 -42 46,564 14,960
Mar-19 2,754 2,759 2,720 2,744 2,764 2,737 -27 39,228 153,450
May-19 2,625 2,633 2,610 2,625 2,632 2,620 -12 769,232 1,486,226
Jul-19 2,626 2,631 2,612 2,622 2,632 2,620 -12 3,626 9,202
Aug-19 – – – 2,656 2,656 2,656 0 0 268
Sep-19 2,667 2,673 2,655 2,667 2,671 2,663 -8 75,682 376,462
Nov-19 2,680 2,689 2,673 2,684 2,687 2,680 -7 900 1,318
Dec-19 2,675 2,700 2,675 2,700 2,698 2,690 -8 8 24
Palm Oil
Turnover: 293,258 lots, or 13.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,078 4,104 4,002 4,020 4,062 4,056 -6 29,378 14,662
Feb-19 – – – 4,264 4,270 4,264 -6 0 30
Mar-19 – – – 4,380 4,386 4,380 -6 0 14
Apr-19 – – – 4,484 4,484 4,484 0 0 18
May-19 4,502 4,504 4,472 4,482 4,502 4,486 -16 247,222 420,316
Jun-19 – – – 4,574 4,574 4,574 0 0 54
Jul-19 – – – 4,618 4,618 4,618 0 0 24
Aug-19 – – – 4,674 4,674 4,674 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,580 4,596 4,556 4,572 4,576 4,574 -2 16,648 55,516
Oct-19 – – – 4,642 4,642 4,642 0 0 26
Nov-19 4,674 4,732 4,674 4,730 4,706 4,704 -2 10 22
Dec-19 – – – 4,696 4,696 4,696 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 339,464 lots, or 18.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,918 4,926 4,852 4,868 4,926 4,894 -32 37,778 43,212
Mar-19 4,976 5,040 4,958 4,960 5,008 4,976 -32 36 210
May-19 5,384 5,394 5,362 5,376 5,402 5,374 -28 265,304 674,372
Jul-19 – – – 5,472 5,472 5,472 0 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 5,496 5,496 5,496 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,480 5,490 5,456 5,468 5,496 5,470 -26 36,344 111,374
Nov-19 – – – 5,538 5,538 5,538 0 0 4
Dec-19 5,582 5,582 5,582 5,582 5,626 5,582 -44 2 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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