About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower and made new lows for the move after trading higher in the first part of the day. Futures are now getting close to chart targets on the weekly charts near 7000 March. Funds appeared to be the best sellers. World production and supplies are going lower due to bad weather in the growing season for major producers around the world, including India, Pakistan, and Australia. China had problems with its growing weather, too. Demand for US Cotton has been disappointing, as the weekly export sales reports have shown average demand at best since the start of the marketing year. There will be no export sales report today due to the partial government shutdown. The On Call report from CFTC was cancelled. China has not bought any US Cotton this year and has been active in other markets, especially India. US prices are down and China might start to look at the US crop, but there have been worries about the quality of the US crop due to some extreme growing conditions in Texas and the Southeast over the Summer and Fall. Ideas are that the quality worries have kept some importers of US Cotton away from the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather and mostly above normal temperatures. The Southeast will get big rain on Friday, then light rain or showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather, but some precipitation today. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 67.63 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 137,667 bales, from 138,317 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7000 and 6500 March. Support is at 7180, 7120, and 7060 March, with resistance of 7420, 7650, and 7720 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday in light trading interest. There were some significant storms yesterday, but some dry areas will probably welcome the precipitation. The Oranges harvest is active in Florida, but will likely get delayed over the next couple of days. The fruit is abundant, but arrivals to packing houses and processors are reported behind last year. Florida producers are seeing small-sized to good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and all processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get chances for scattered showers this week and above normal temperatures. The weekend should be dry.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 122.00 January. Support is at 123.00, 120.00, and 117.00 January, with resistance at 128.00, 132.00, and 134.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Dec 27
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 12/15/2018
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
12/15/2018 12/16/2017 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 207.85 174.12 19.4%
Retail/Institutional 5.16 7.48 -31.0%
Total 213.01 181.61 17.3%
Pack
Bulk 4.12 3.70 11.4%
Retail/Institutional 1.62 1.37 17.9%
Total Pack 5.74 5.07 13.2%
Reprocessed -2.96 -2.40 23.2%
Pack from Fruit 2.78 2.67 4.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.08 0.10 -19.5%
Imports – Foreign 3.48 4.34 -19.7%
Domestic Receipts 0.15 0.09 75.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.01 – NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 212.58 179.95 18.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.78 8.86 -23.5%
Total 219.36 188.81 16.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.41 4.87 11.1%
Exports 0.25 0.11 125.8%
Total (Bulk) 5.66 4.98 13.6%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.49 1.29 15.5%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.49 1.29 15.5%
Total Movement 7.15 6.27 14.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 206.92 174.97 18.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.29 7.56 -30.1%
Ending Inventory 212.21 182.54 16.3%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
15-Dec-18 16-Dec-17 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 237.81 185.02 28.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.72 192.21 26.8%
Pack
Bulk 18.69 20.29 -7.9%
Retail/Institutional 12.70 14.95 -15.1%
Total Pack 31.39 35.24 -10.9%
Reprocessed -20.84 -23.24 -10.3%
Pack from Fruit 10.55 12.00 -12.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.04 0.87 -95.3%
Imports – Foreign 27.49 40.67 -32.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.36 2.23 -84.0%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.03 36.4%
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.24 0.13 78.7%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.19 – NA
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 263.92 225.99 16.8%
Retail/Institutional 18.62 22.15 -16.0%
Total 282.53 248.14 13.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 54.12 49.07 10.3%
Domestic 2.88 1.95 47.8%
Exports 57.00 51.01 11.7%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 13.33 14.59 -8.6%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 13.33 14.59 -8.6%
Total Movement 70.33 65.60 7.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 206.92 174.97 18.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.29 7.56 -30.1%
Ending Inventory 212.21 182.54 16.3%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York with funds the best sellers. London was slightly higher in January, but a little lower in the other months. The Brazil crops are getting harvested now, and production estimates now range as high as 63.7 million bags. Producers in Brazil are expecting less production next year. El Nino remains in the forecast and Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by drought that could hurt production even more. It will be the off-year for production, so lower production is expected even without El Nino. Vietnam is active in its harvest. Production in Vietnam is estimated at or above 30 million bags, although sources in the country say that the world trade estimates are too high and say the production will be less than 30 million bags. The lower production estimates are more likely after uneven weather during the crop development period.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.461 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 100.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get chances for scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be above normal this week, but near to below normal early next week. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 100.00, 99.00, and 96.00 March, and resistance is at 104.00, 105.00 and 107.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1450, 1440, and 1410 January, and resistance is at 1510, 1520, and 1550 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London both closed lower and near the lows of the recent trading range. A weaker Brazilian Real against the US Dollar helped encourage some speculative selling. The market is also looking for demand news and is not finding much. March futures closed at some support at about 1225. Brazil has been using a majority of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, and there is some talk the mills might switch back to Sugar unless petroleum prices improve soon. The change to higher petroleum prices might have started this week, but overall petroleum futures remain in a steep down trend and have not completed a bottom formation yet. There are doubts on just how much production will be seen this year in India. Northwest India had been experiencing hot and dry weather that could cut yields. It has not announced a reduction in its export goal of 5.0 million tons this year, so it plans to push exports, but low world prices are also hurting export potential. Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get chances for scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be above normal next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1200 and 1130 March. Support is at 1210, 1190, and 1170 March, and resistance is at 1250, 1270, and 1290 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 329.00 and 316.00 March. Support is at 336.00, 330.00, and 324.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 345.00, and 348.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments Futures closed lower in New York and higher in London as the two markets adjusted spread relationships. London had been closed on Monday and needed to catch up with New York. Some of the selling in New York was probably based on new hedges placed on Monday in New York being sold and established in London. Futures moved above major resistance areas in New York on Wednesday on reports that hot and dry weather could hurt development of the main and mid crops in West Africa. The main crop harvest is continuing in West Africa. Conditions are hot and dry. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast and Ghana are being reduced, with Ivory Coast now estimating its main crop production at 1.985 million tons, down from previous estimates just over 2.0 million tons. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.387 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives . Support is at 2340, 2320, and 2290 March, with resistance at 2410, 2430, and 2480 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1720 and 1750 March. Support is at 1710, 1700, and 1660 March, with resistance at 1760, 1800, and 1840 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322