Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher after trading lower in the first part of the day. Futures came very close to second swing targets before finding much buying interest. Funds appeared to be the best buyers. World production and supplies are going lower due to bad weather in the growing season for major producers around the world, including India, Pakistan, and Australia. China had problems with its growing weather, too. Demand for US Cotton has been disappointing, as the weekly export sales reports have shown average demand at best since the start of the marketing year. China has not bought any US Cotton this year and has been active in other markets, especially India. US prices are down and China might start to look at the US crop, but there have been worries about the quality of the US crop due to some extreme growing conditions in Texas and the Southeast over the Summer and Fall. Ideas are that the quality worries have kept some importers of US Cotton away from the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather except for some big rain son Thursday and mostly above normal temperatures. The Southeast will get big rain on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather, but some precipitation today. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 69.07 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 137,667 bales, from 138,317 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7200 March. Support is at 7220, 7180, and 7120 March, with resistance of 7400, 7650, and 7720 March.
General Comments: FCOJ was steady to a little lower yesterday in light trading interest. Warmer and drier weather was seen in Florida, and an as active harvest is likely. There were some significant storms in the forecast for the next couple of days, but some dry areas will probably welcome the precipitation. Some selling was noted on demand concerns and both the domestic and export market remain soft. The Oranges harvest is active in Florida, but will likely get delayed over the next couple of days. The fruit is abundant, but arrivals to packing houses and processors are reported behind last year. Florida producers are seeing small-sized to good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and all processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions, with showers and storms possible on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get chances for scattered showers this week and above normal temperatures. The weekend should be dry.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 122.00 January. Support is at 128.00, 126.00, and 123.00 January, with resistance at 132.00, 134.00, and 138.00 January.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York with London closed. The market had become extremely over sold, and futures held a test of the March contract low on the daily charts in trading last week. The price action this week could be a sign that the market has gone down far enough. Speculators were on both sides of the market. The Brazil crops are getting harvested now, and production estimates now range as high as 63.7 million bags. That is a big crop and the main reason to see prices in New York as low as they are right now. Producers are also looking ahead to next year, and production could drop sharply in the off production year. El Nino remains in the forecast and Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by drought that could hurt production even more. It will be the off-year for production, so lower production is expected even without El Nino. Vietnam is active in its harvest. Production in Vietnam is estimated at or above 30 million bags, although sources in the country insist that the world trade estimates are too high and say the production will be less than 30 million bags.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly lower today and are about 2.460 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 100.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get chances for scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be above normal this week, but near to below normal early next week. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 100.00, 99.00, and 96.00 March, and resistance is at 104.00, 105.00 and 107.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1450, 1440, and 1410 January, and resistance is at 1510, 1520, and 1550 January.
General Comments: New York closed near unchanged and London was closed. March futures remain above some support at about 1225. Sugar was supported a little bit by the huge rally in the Stock Market and also in petroleum futures. Brazil has been using a majority of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, and there is some talk the mills might switch back to Sugar unless petroleum prices improve soon. The change to higher petroleum prices might have started yesterday. There are doubts on just how much production will be seen this year in India. Northwest India had been experiencing hot and dry weather that could cut yields. It has not announced a reduction in its export goal of 5.0 million tons this year, so it plans to push exports, but low world prices are also hurting export potential. Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get chances for scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be above normal next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1230, 1210, and 1190 March, and resistance is at 1250, 1270, and 1290 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 330.00, and 309.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 345.00, and 348.00 March.
General Comments Futures closed higher in New York and London was closed. Futures moved above major resistance areas in New York on reports that hot and dry weather could hurt development of the mid crop in West Africa. The main crop harvest is continuing in West Africa. Conditions are hot and dry. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast and Ghana are being reduced, with Ivory Coast now estimating its main crop production at 1.985 million tons, down from previous estimates just over 2.0 million tons. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 725,809 tons, up about 48% from 551,020 tons last year.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.319 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives . Support is at 2400, 2370, and 2340 March, with resistance at 2480, 2540, and 2560 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1720 and 1750 March. Support is at 1660, 1590, and 1580 March, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1740 March.