About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 26
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 20, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/20/2018 12/13/2018 12/21/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 367 269 6,191 18,182
CORN 996,098 886,100 620,834 16,988,456 9,861,862
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 194 4,673
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 399 200 1,693 7,187
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 33,186 24,048 86,914 426,954 1,522,098
SOYBEANS 651,181 985,677 1,286,800 15,821,876 27,183,442
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 543,126 684,936 520,539 12,259,447 14,276,767
Total 2,223,591 2,581,527 2,515,556 45,504,811 52,874,235
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower yesterday on fund selling. World prices continue to hold rather firm even as US prices move lower, but US futures are running out of down side targets and could reverse at any time. There is no real demand news as USDA is closed due to the partial shutdown. Demand is needed to give a fundamental reason for the market to rally. The weekly export sales report remain average at best. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and the weekly charts show that higher prices possible in the next few weeks. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. Australian and European prices have also been relatively strong. Argentine prices showed a little weakness last week as the weather in the country is about to turn drier and more favorable for the remaining Wheat crop to be harvested. The crop might have suffered some quality damage.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some precipitation starting on Wednesday, then a dry late week and weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see precipitation mid-week, then drier weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 508 March. Support is at 504, 500, and 494 March, with resistance at 520, 530, and 538 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 491, 485, and 483 March, with resistance at 508, 517, and 524 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 548, 542, and 536 March, and resistance is at 564, 568, and 574 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday. Weekly charts show the potential for a down trend, and the quiet tone in the cash market is reflected in the futures market as buyers and sellers are not eager to be involved. The holiday period is usually very quiet for the US cash market, and this year has seen a slow trade and stable prices. However, basis levels have been firming as the market needs a little Rice and is not getting much offer from the producers. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time. The export demand is holding relatively strong, and there is some mill demand. It will probably take until after the first of the year to see much positive price movement in Rice futures and cash markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get precipitation over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1103 and 1054 January. Support is at 1014, 1004, and 997 January, with resistance at 1042, 1048, and 1056 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on fund selling. Trends are down short-term on the daily and up on weekly charts. Demand news will be hard to find now with parts of the US Government closed. There are worries about the release of the January annual production reports and the monthly supply and demand data as well due to the partial shutdown. Corn demand for ethanol has softened in the wake of the crushing move to lower prices over the last couple of months in petroleum futures markets. Ethanol prices have also weakened and blenders no longer have a profit margin and are cutting back on production. Significant precipitation is possible for the rest of the week from west to east and any remaining harvest will be stalled. Planting progress in southern Brazil is reported to be good. Argentine planting progress is also active.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 366 March. Support is at 372, 370, and 367 March, and resistance is at 380, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 270 and 254 March. Support is at 273, 263, and 260 March, and resistance is at 277, 278, and 280 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower yesterday on fund selling. There is no new demand news with USDA shut down, and the trade wonders if the January anual production and monthly supply and demand reports will be delayed. The market has shown a disappointing reaction to the recent Chinese purchases of US Soybeans. China bought US Soybeans to fulfill its part of an agreement made in Buenos Aires, and it is expected to buy more in the next few weeks. However, the market knows that there are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. Plus, there are no guarantees that the overall trade dispute will be resolved in the next three months, and the trade war could intensify if an agreement is not found. That might mean that the US will sell only a very limited amount of Soybeans to China in the coming year. Brazil has been planting and plans on big crops. Argentina is also planting. Producers in southern areas are ahead of the normal pace for planting progress, and there are reports of limited harvest activity in western Parana and in the Mato Grosso. Conditions in general are rated very good, although western Parana and some parts of Mato growwo have been dry. Meanwhile, ending stocks projections for the US are very high and give little reason to expect a major rally anytime soon.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 868, 843, and 837 January. Support is at 864, 857, and 855 January, and resistance is at 889, 897, and 900 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 301.00 and 295.00 January. Support is at 303.00, 300.00, and 297.00 January, and resistance is at 310.00, 312.00, and 315.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2700 and 2690 January. Support is at 2720, 2690, and 2660 January, with resistance at 2790, 2830, and 2850 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was closed for a holiday. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend. Palm Oil was a little higher in recovery trading. Weaker world vegetable oils prices were a drag on Palm Oil. The Malaysian government is looking at reducing its export taxes as a way to move Palm Oil. Traders are looking for Indonesian production data to see if production there has become less.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 1.074 million tons, from 1.078 million last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 471.00 January. Support is at 472.00, 471.00, and 469.00 January, with resistance at 478.00, 481.00, and 483.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2070, 2040, and 2020 March, with resistance at 2120, 2160, and 2180 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation later in the week, then less precipitation over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 42 March 140 March 75 March 26 January 2 January
January 43 March 80 March 35 January
February 47 March 85 March 22 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
December
January
February -14 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 21
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 464.36 dn 3.14
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 494.70 dn 1.10
2 Can 481.70 dn 1.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 506.70 dn 1.10
2 Can 493.70 dn 1.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 505.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 525.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 530.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 542.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jan 510.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 530.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 535.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 547.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 487.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 345.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,020 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 190 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1750)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 102,692 lots, or 3.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,182 3,196 3,162 3,168 3,180 3,175 -5 24,084 53,654
Mar-19 3,180 3,234 3,180 3,234 3,221 3,217 -4 58 2,280
May-19 3,374 3,391 3,362 3,378 3,381 3,379 -2 76,190 158,478
Jul-19 – – – 3,479 3,479 3,479 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,442 3,450 3,430 3,443 3,441 3,443 2 2,212 11,556
Nov-19 – – – 3,483 3,495 3,483 -12 0 14
Jan-20 3,470 3,485 3,461 3,481 3,477 3,474 -3 148 1,170
Corn
Turnover: 531,198 lots, or 9.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,847 1,848 1,833 1,843 1,833 1,843 10 12,110 49,886
Mar-19 1,841 1,850 1,840 1,848 1,834 1,846 12 4,920 24,166
May-19 1,846 1,860 1,845 1,855 1,841 1,853 12 453,410 1,178,332
Jul-19 1,872 1,881 1,868 1,875 1,861 1,875 14 534 12,430
Sep-19 1,880 1,888 1,874 1,880 1,871 1,881 10 59,546 321,364
Nov-19 1,902 1,913 1,900 1,904 1,896 1,906 10 678 1,268
Soymeal
Turnover: 957,226 lots, or 25.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 2,854 2,856 2,803 2,810 2,850 2,834 -16 76,128 68,546
Mar-19 2,783 2,789 2,755 2,769 2,783 2,778 -5 66,208 151,206
May-19 2,632 2,641 2,621 2,634 2,631 2,632 1 758,264 1,470,724
Jul-19 2,630 2,640 2,623 2,636 2,632 2,632 0 1,802 8,374
Aug-19 – – – 2,654 2,654 2,654 0 0 262
Sep-19 2,672 2,682 2,663 2,676 2,674 2,674 0 54,212 363,760
Nov-19 2,687 2,694 2,682 2,691 2,687 2,689 2 592 1,272
Dec-19 2,712 2,727 2,701 2,704 2,690 2,711 21 20 22
Palm Oil
Turnover: 216,484 lots, or 9.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,070 4,092 4,042 4,054 4,102 4,064 -38 22,796 41,504
Feb-19 – – – 4,272 4,310 4,272 -38 0 30
Mar-19 4,388 4,390 4,388 4,390 4,350 4,388 38 12 14
Apr-19 – – – 4,484 4,484 4,484 0 0 18
May-19 4,480 4,508 4,476 4,498 4,504 4,490 -14 183,424 427,954
Jun-19 4,558 4,592 4,540 4,552 4,490 4,562 72 314 54
Jul-19 4,612 4,636 4,612 4,636 4,638 4,618 -20 12 24
Aug-19 – – – 4,662 4,662 4,662 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,558 4,582 4,550 4,570 4,578 4,566 -12 9,902 49,990
Oct-19 4,644 4,644 4,642 4,642 4,670 4,642 -28 10 26
Nov-19 4,636 4,658 4,636 4,656 4,644 4,644 0 14 10
Dec-19 – – – 4,636 4,636 4,636 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 280,618 lots, or 15.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,928 4,962 4,902 4,924 4,988 4,926 -62 30,852 67,228
Mar-19 5,098 5,098 5,010 5,010 5,076 5,040 -36 30 178
May-19 5,402 5,424 5,380 5,410 5,428 5,402 -26 228,532 644,812
Jul-19 5,420 5,420 5,420 5,420 5,476 5,420 -56 6 20
Aug-19 – – – 5,496 5,496 5,496 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,496 5,518 5,474 5,502 5,518 5,500 -18 21,196 93,316
Nov-19 – – – 5,538 5,538 5,538 0 0 4
Dec-19 5,626 5,626 5,626 5,626 5,584 5,626 42 2 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322