About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Dec 21
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 36.859 million pounds, in November, 38.1% above the previous
month, and 4.8% above November 2017, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Friday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Nov 30 Oct 31 Nov Oct warehouse
2018 2018 2017 2017 stocks/Nov
pork bellies 36,859 26,690 35,164
orange juice 528,847 566,387 468,090
french fries 963,212 1,002,221 1,010,300
other potatoes 235,390 247,991 263,835
chicken rstr (whole) 17,738 17,072 16,350
ham 96,380 176,085 98,224
total pork 507,557 570,894 502,324 455,003
total beef 514,720 515,584 485,187 508,419
total red meat 1,069,243 1,135,640 1,032,287 1,010,296
total chicken 935,193 940,620 896,602
total turkey 274,123 445,016 288,536
total poultry 1,212,266 1,389,038 1,188,015 1,140,393
================================================================================
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Dec 21
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 36.859 million pounds, in November, 38.1% above the previous
month, and 4.8% above November 2017, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Friday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Nov 30 Oct 31 Nov Oct warehouse
2018 2018 2017 2017 stocks/Nov
pork bellies 36,859 26,690 35,164
orange juice 528,847 566,387 468,090
french fries 963,212 1,002,221 1,010,300
other potatoes 235,390 247,991 263,835
chicken rstr (whole) 17,738 17,072 16,350
ham 96,380 176,085 98,224
total pork 507,557 570,894 502,324 455,003
total beef 514,720 515,584 485,187 508,419
total red meat 1,069,243 1,135,640 1,032,287 1,010,296
total chicken 935,193 940,620 896,602
total turkey 274,123 445,016 288,536
total poultry 1,212,266 1,389,038 1,188,015 1,140,393
================================================================================

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower last week as weak overall demand continues to impact the US market. On the other hand, world production and supplies are going lower due to bad weather in the growing season for major producers around the world, including India, Pakistan, and Australia. China had problems with its growing weather, too. Demand for US Cotton has been disappointing, as the weekly export sales reports have shown average demand at best since the start of the marketing year. China has not bought any US Cotton this year and has been active in other markets, especially India. US prices are down and China might start to look at the US crop, but there have been worries about the quality of the US crop due to some extreme growing conditions in Texas and the Southeast over the Summer and Fall. Ideas are that the quality worries have kept some importers of US Cotton away from the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather and mostly above normal temperatures. The Southeast will get mostly dry weather this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 68.75 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 138,317 bales, from 138,311 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7200 March. Support is at 7300, 7240, and 7180 March, with resistance of 7650, 7720, and 7780 March.

DJ USDA Volume of Cotton Classed Report – Dec 21
Data quoted in bales for week ending Dec 20. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 260,341 3,151,984 Southwest 497,173 4,735,706
NC 35,350 650,438 Okla 42,155 225,936
SC 21,458 277,152 Texas 445,141 4,469,693
Ga 131,887 1,383,272 Kansas 9,877 40,077
Ala 50,194 618,470
Fla 7,380 58,741 Far West 41,967 298,397
Va 14,072 163,911 NM 3,077 18,122
Ariz 23,658 159,018
Delta 160,375 4,195,775 Calif 15,232 121,257
Miss 60,824 1,226,044
Tenn 22,823 744,525 Pima 45,154 410,396
Mo 28,147 712,011 Other 0 0
Ark 34,553 1,119,148 Total US 1,005,010 12,792,258
La 14,028 394,047 pct tenderable 67.1 67.3

DJ USDA Cotton Ginnings For Period Ending Dec 15-Dec 21
Cotton Ginnings: Running Bales Ginned (Excluding Linters)
As of December 15, Crop Years 2015-2018
by Crop, State, and United States
==========================================================================
Crop and State Running bales ginned
——————————————————-
2015 2016 2017 2018
==========================================================================
number
Upland
US 9,499,500 11,889,450 13,550,350 11,853,950
American Pima
US 330,800 371,850 412,650 406,650
All Cotton
US 9,830,300 12,261,300 13,963,000 12,260,600
==========================================================================

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 18, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 267,435
: Positions :
: 41,379 20,901 56,757 58,690 165,687 95,228 11,718 252,054 255,062: 15,381 12,373
: Changes from: December 11, 2018 (Change in open interest: -2,364) :
: -1,379 2,102 -224 -1,317 -4,808 1,969 -265 -951 -3,194: -1,413 830
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 7.8 21.2 21.9 62.0 35.6 4.4 94.2 95.4: 5.8 4.6
: Total Traders: 274 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 64 89 52 65 45 17 228 199:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and made new lows for the move on the weekly charts. Warmer and drier weather was seen in Florida, and an as active harvest is likely. There were some significant storms reported on Thursday, but some dry areas probably welcomed the precipitation more than anything. Some selling was noted on demand concerns and both the domestic and export market remain soft. The Oranges harvest is active in Florida under good weather conditions. The fruit is abundant, but arrivals to packing houses and processors are reported behind last year. Florida producers are seeing small-sized to good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and all processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions, with showers and storms possible today. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get chances for scattered showers this week and above normal temperatures. The weekend should be dry.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 122.00 January. Support is at 128.00, 1236.00, and 123.00 January, with resistance at 132.00, 134.00, and 138.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 18, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 19,990 :
: Positions :
: 12,009 7,562 1,528 0 1 499 6,440 200 687 821 2,892 :
: Changes from: December 11, 2018 :
: -367 -271 -28 0 1 115 -12 -88 10 11 123 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.1 37.8 7.6 0.0 0.0 2.5 32.2 1.0 3.4 4.1 14.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 74 :
: 24 13 6 0 . . 22 4 9 8 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York in reversal type trading last week. The market had become extremely over sold, and futures held a test of the March contract low on the daily charts. It could be a sign that the market has gone down far enough. Speculators were on both sides of the market and roasters were reported to be good buyers for the week. Currency relationships, and especially the rate between the US Dollar and the Brazilian Real, continue to be the driving force in Coffee trading. The Brazil crops are getting harvested now, and production estimates now range as high as 63.7 million bags. That is a big crop and the main reason to see prices in New York as low as they are right now. Producers are also looking ahead to next year, and production could drop sharply in the off production year. El Nino remains in the forecast and Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by drought that could hurt production even more. Vietnam is active in its harvest. Production in Vietnam is estimated at or above 30 million bags, although sources in the country insist that the world trade estimates are too high and say the production will be less than 30 million bags.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.460 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 100.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get chances for scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be above normal this week, but near to below normal early next week. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 93.00 March, and resistance is at 102.00, 104.00 and 105.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1410, and 1380 January, and resistance is at 1510, 1520, and 1550 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 18, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 318,487
: Positions :
: 26,034 86,934 79,743 130,733 117,845 65,965 26,874 302,475 311,396: 16,012 7,091
: Changes from: December 11, 2018 (Change in open interest: 5,159) :
: 846 6,643 3,128 376 -5,770 -518 1,398 3,831 5,399: 1,328 -239
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 27.3 25.0 41.0 37.0 20.7 8.4 95.0 97.8: 5.0 2.2
: Total Traders: 465 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 117 135 131 140 109 45 27 380 339:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/18/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
144,481 81,238 65,200 10,434 4,629 2,934
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.2% 45.1% 7.2% 3.2% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 48 42 15 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
9,664 30,719 10,130 1,160 2,842 22,824
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.7% 21.3% 7.0% 0.8% 2.0% 15.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 32 13 7 13 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,096 5,203
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 3.6%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed a little lower last week. March futures are now near some support at about 1200. London was lower as well. Sugar was hurt by the weakness in petroleum futures that have hurt demand ideas. Brazil has been using a majority of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, and there is some talk the mills might switch back to Sugar unless petroleum prices improve soon. There are doubts on just how much production will be seen this year in India. Wire reports indicate that pests have invaded Sugarcane fields and are eating and destroying the crop. Northwest India had been experiencing hot and dry weather that could cut yields. It has not announced a reduction in its export goal of 5.0 million tons this year. Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get chances for scattered showers each day. Temperatures should be above normal next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1230, 1210, and 1190 March, and resistance is at 1270, 1290, and 1310 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 330.00, and 309.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 345.00, and 348.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 18, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,010,485
: Positions :
: 79,009 156,267 213,910 343,861 527,012 294,796 50,806 931,576 947,995: 78,910 62,491
: Changes from: December 11, 2018 (Change in open interest: 17,846) :
: -287 26,212 615 20,921 -17,689 -4,677 1,766 16,572 10,904: 1,275 6,942
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 15.5 21.2 34.0 52.2 29.2 5.0 92.2 93.8: 7.8 6.2
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 66 81 80 74 36 23 214 204:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/18/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
90,362 44,803 68,708 10,943 978 1,226
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 49.6% 76.0% 12.1% 1.1% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
132 51 56 10 2 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,244 5,602 7,769 2,846 717 2,505
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.9% 6.2% 8.6% 3.1% 0.8% 2.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 12 16 7 5 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,026 2,857
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.6% 3.2%

COCOA
General Comments Futures closed mixed to higher once again in New York and in London. The outlook for strong production in the coming year is still around, and ports are still said to have plenty of Cocoa on offer. The main crop harvest is continuing in West Africa. Conditions are hot and dry. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast and Ghana are being reduced, with Ivory Coast now estimating its main crop production at 1.985 million tons, down from previous estimates just over 2.0 million tons. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.324 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2380 March . Support is at 2220, 2200, and 2140 March, with resistance at 2320, 2350, and 2380 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1720 and 1750 March. Support is at 1660, 1590, and 1580 March, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1740 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 18, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 277,665
: Positions :
: 39,209 51,592 56,474 109,988 140,188 60,781 21,999 266,452 270,253: 11,212 7,412
: Changes from: December 11, 2018 (Change in open interest: 2,368) :
: 2,592 -4,314 248 -1,653 6,885 2,019 902 3,206 3,722: -838 -1,354
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 18.6 20.3 39.6 50.5 21.9 7.9 96.0 97.3: 4.0 2.7
: Total Traders: 224 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 65 62 43 45 34 16 178 157:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/18/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
290,464 172,608 180,628 31,015 11,866 17,235
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.4% 62.2% 10.7% 4.1% 5.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 51 44 17 8 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
21,402 35,939 18,000 4,205 423 23,522
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.4% 12.4% 6.2% 1.4% 0.1% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
23 18 15 15 5 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,477 2,852
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322