About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Cattle on Feed: 1,000+ Lots Total U.S, 12-State-Dec 20
Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketing, and
Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots,
United States, December 1, 2017-2018
========================================================================
Number 2018 as % of
Item ======================================
2017 2018 2017
========================================================================
====1,000 head==== Percent
On feed November 1 11,332 11,692 103
Placed on feed during November 2,099 1,996 95
Fed cattle marketed during November 1,844 1,869 101
Other disappearance during November 71 80 113
On feed December 1 11,516 11,739 102
========================================================================
Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketing, and
Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots,
United States, November 1, 2017-2018
========================================================================
Number 2018 as % of
Item =====================================
2017 2018 2017
========================================================================
====1,000 head==== Percent
On feed October 1 10,813 11,400 105
Placed on feed during October 2,393 2,248 94
Fed cattle marketed during October 1,801 1,887 105
Other disappearance during October 73 69 95
On feed November 1 11,332 11,692 103
========================================================================
Total 12-State 1,000+ Capacity lots
December 1, 2017-2018
========================================================================
Number 2018 as % of
Item ====================================
2017 2018 2017
========================================================================
====1,000 head==== Percent
On feed November 1 11,007 11,372 103
Placed on feed during November 2,053 1,941 95
Fed cattle marketed during November 1,805 1,818 101
Other disappearance during November 69 76 110
On feed December 1 11,186 11,419 102
========================================================================

DJ USDA Hogs And Pigs: U.S. Inventory, By Class, Weight-Dec 20
Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group,
and Quarter, United States, 2017-2018
=====================================================================
2018 as
Item 2017 2018 percent
of 2017
=====================================================================
==- 1,000 Head ==- percent
March 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 70,916 72,748 103
Kept for breeding 6,098 6,210 102
Market 64,818 66,538 103
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 20,422 20,942 103
50-119 pounds 17,942 18,212 102
120-179 pounds 14,485 14,996 104
180 pounds and over 11,969 12,387 103
June 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 71,210 72,866 102
Kept for breeding 6,109 6,320 103
Market 65,101 66,546 102
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 20,647 21,327 103
50-119 pounds 18,841 19,083 101
120-179 pounds 13,696 13,988 102
180 pounds and over 11,917 12,147 102
September 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 73,309 74,941 102
Kept for breeding 6,117 6,330 103
Market 67,192 68,611 102
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 21,533 22,092 103
50-119 pounds 19,757 20,262 103
120-179 pounds 13,874 14,066 101
180 pounds and over 12,028 12,190 101
December 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 73,145 74,550 102
Kept for breeding 6,179 6,326 102
Market 66,966 68,225 102
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 21,407 21,599 101
50-119 pounds 18,544 18,932 102
120-179 pounds 13,925 14,412 103
180 pounds and over 13,089 13,282 101
=====================================================================

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Dec 21
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Dec. 16, 2018. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2931.4 792.4 190.0 305.6 45.2 1315.3 376.7 272.1 7050.5
Week ago 2744.7 825.1 205.2 332.4 45.5 1232.9 352.3 253.1 6895.0
Year ago 3094.1 652.8 206.5 320.6 103.7 1454.4 285.6 143.1 7154.6
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 561.6 85.1 44.2 82.4 7.2 448.9 89.4 9.8 1422.0
Week Ago 532.4 80.9 40.7 67.4 11.6 417.2 106.2 10.6 1345.1
To Date 8892.8 1453.0 976.2 1452.1 139.0 7760.8 1496.3 233.4 24438.0
Year Ago 7314.8 1530.0 976.0 1195.6 200.6 8141.2 1357.8 212.5 23088.7
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 466.7 112.8 4.3 21.0 0.0 181.8 35.4 61.9 1075.8
Week Ago 386.2 130.6 3.4 25.9 0.0 211.6 48.6 61.5 1144.5
To Date 8814.1 1647.3 210.5 883.4 62.2 4181.6 769.9 467.4 21676.4
Year Ago 7485.5 1952.6 75.8 699.1 109.0 4649.2 889.3 370.0 20214.1
EXPORTS – Note: Large revisions have been reported by licensed elevators
that affected Crop Year to Date totals this week.
This Week 322.6 75.8 42.0 2.6 0.8 245.8 21.3 31.0 1028.5
Week Ago 366.8 77.3 21.8 111.1 1.2 226.2 17.3 59.4 1058.1
To Date 7223.5 1273.9 697.6 914.4 113.2 3933.3 781.3 539.3 18680.7
Year Ago 6187.2 1476.7 661.1 724.9 121.8 4210.0 930.2 294.3 17095.6
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 96.9 2.2 4.9 30.5 1.5 183.6 5.7 28.0 379.2
Week Ago 165.1 18.8 5.6 21.6 2.3 200.4 4.6 14.2 457.5
To Date 1676.1 142.8 115.2 432.4 20.0 3456.4 85.3 444.7 7477.5
Year Ago 2092.1 316.0 103.0 489.9 22.1 3405.5 84.6 270.3 8150.4
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were mixed yesterday as export demand is still not strong, but as the US Dollar moved lower and world Wheat prices were reported higher. Egypt was forced to pay higher prices at its tender this week when compared to last week. World Wheat prices remain generally strong and ideas are that the Chicago markets are going through a short-term correction as traders close out or adjust positions before the holidays. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and the weekly charts show that higher prices are possible in the next few weeks. The planting of the Winter Wheat crops in the US was delayed due to bad weather and is now over due to the onset of Winter. Too much rain and too much cold weather made getting the crop in and established in a timely fashion very difficult. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia still shows the potential for strong exports this year. The Russian government is having another meeting with its exporters to monitor the trade situation, but is not expected to impose export controls. Areas near the Black Sea have been very cold in recent days. Argentine Wheat has been hurt by excessive rains in the last few weeks, although the weather is turning drier now. The crop is probably damaged.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light precipitation late week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but light precipitation is possible north and east at the end of the week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 519 and 508 March. Support is at 522, 520, and 516 March, with resistance at 530, 538, and 540 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 507 and 498 March. Support is at 507, 502, and 501 March, with resistance at 517, 524, and 527 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 568 March. Support is at 568, 561, and 559 March, and resistance is at 574, 576, and 578 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday in continued slow and range bound trading. It is a holiday market, and the holiday period is usually very quiet for the US cash market, and this year is very slow. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time. The mills appear covered for now, but have provided some demand. The export demand is holding relatively strong, especially for Paddy. It might take until after the first of the year to see much movement in Rice futures and cash markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather, but precipitation is possible today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be above normal. . .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1037, 1035, and 1033 January, with resistance at 1064, 1069, and 1071 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on speculative selling as the market worries about ethanol demand. The weekly export sales report was strong. Ethanol inventories were reported higher on Wednesday, and reports indicate that the processors of ethanol are not really making any money right now. There was some talk of Chinese interest, but nothing was confirmed. However, China is expected to buy some US Corn soon, with total purchases ranging as high as 3.0 million tons. Export demand is holding firm even with no sales to China. The weather in the Midwest is improved for harvesting, but precipitation will start to arrive in the region later today. The temperatures are still above normal, but should turn more seasonal late this week and over the weekend. Cool, but quiet conditions are expected for much of this weekend.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 222,504 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 374 and 366 March. Support is at 372, 370, and 367 March, and resistance is at 380, 384, and 387 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 270 and 254 March. Support is at 277, 273, and 263 March, and resistance is at 286, 290, and 292 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower despite a very strong weekly export sales report. The report included the initial round of sales to China, and more will be reported in the next week as China has been a strong buyer again. China is still reported to be showing buying interest, so export demand has a good chance to remain strong through the holidays. Trade talk noted that the total sales now total 3.0 million tons and that more sales are expected. The current sales are nowhere near the pace from a year ago due to the trade wars. The market knows that there are plenty of Soybeans to sell from the US and South America. So, the market reaction to the demand reports has been somewhat disappointing. There are no guarantees that the overall trade dispute will be resolved in the next three months, and the war could intensify if an agreement is not found. The US has agreed to keep the tariffs as they are in return for some Chinese buying in US ag markets and continued talks about opening up the Chinese markets and the rest of the disputed areas. China has started to buy and also made a good will gesture to lower automobile import tariffs. Brazil has been planting and plans on bigger crops. Some harvesting has been reported in parts of Mato Grosso and is expected soon in parts of Parana. Brazil and Argentine crops have seen periods of a lot of rain in southern areas and drier conditions to the north, but the conditions look to improve in all areas for at least the next couple of weeks. Trade eyes are on the weather there, but so far no one is expecting any major yield or production losses to be reported. Some small losses could be happening now.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 115,500 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 868, 843, and 837 January. Support is at 880, 871, and 864 January, and resistance is at 903, 912, and 916 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 303.00, and 300.00 January, and resistance is at 312.00, 315.00, and 318.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2820, 2810, and 2770 January, with resistance at 2850, 2880, and 2890 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago. Some selling came on good weather in South America that is producing ideas of huge crops there. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend. Palm Oil was a little lower on what appeared to be some long liquidation by speculators. Weaker world vegetable oils prices were a dragon  Palm Oil.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 879,491 tons, from 822,620 tons last month. AmSpec said that exports are now 846,725 tons, from 793,497 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 471.00 January. Support is at 476.00, 472.00, and 471.00 January, with resistance at 481.00, 483.00, and 485.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2275 and 2400 March. Support is at 2140, 2130, and 2100 March, with resistance at 2220, 2250, and 2280 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry again after today. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 42 March 140 March 75 March 30 January 2 January
January 47 March 80 March 36 January
February 50 March 80 March 23 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
December
January
February 50 March -14 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 20
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 467.50 up 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 495.80 up 0.30
2 Can 482.80 up 0.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 507.80 up 0.30
2 Can 494.80 up 0.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 510.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 527.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 540.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 557.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 515.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 532.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 545.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 562.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 485.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 345.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,100 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 192.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1770)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 175,176 lots, or 5.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,181 3,194 3,121 3,144 3,170 3,153 -17 75,822 108,356
Mar-19 3,221 3,249 3,174 3,184 3,205 3,207 2 350 2,178
May-19 3,442 3,455 3,393 3,400 3,447 3,417 -30 95,848 141,026
Jul-19 – – – 3,479 3,479 3,479 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,510 3,513 3,463 3,469 3,508 3,479 -29 2,524 10,930
Nov-19 – – – 3,529 3,543 3,529 -14 0 14
Jan-20 3,526 3,526 3,491 3,499 3,519 3,500 -19 632 1,060
Corn
Turnover: 341,276 lots, or 6.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,855 1,869 1,855 1,857 1,858 1,861 3 21,170 94,088
Mar-19 1,853 1,857 1,850 1,851 1,855 1,853 -2 9,440 24,358
May-19 1,870 1,870 1,861 1,863 1,870 1,864 -6 282,104 1,151,832
Jul-19 1,895 1,895 1,886 1,889 1,896 1,889 -7 478 12,666
Sep-19 1,902 1,902 1,892 1,895 1,903 1,896 -7 27,888 293,048
Nov-19 1,923 1,923 1,917 1,920 1,927 1,920 -7 196 1,094
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,162,742 lots, or 31.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 2,918 2,919 2,872 2,880 2,913 2,897 -16 140,966 182,874
Mar-19 2,825 2,836 2,802 2,812 2,822 2,822 0 143,906 156,484
May-19 2,670 2,670 2,641 2,649 2,666 2,655 -11 809,714 1,387,934
Jul-19 2,671 2,671 2,646 2,654 2,670 2,659 -11 1,946 8,356
Aug-19 2,680 2,680 2,675 2,675 2,694 2,677 -17 4 262
Sep-19 2,710 2,715 2,685 2,691 2,710 2,699 -11 65,534 345,290
Nov-19 2,716 2,719 2,701 2,707 2,722 2,707 -15 638 1,054
Dec-19 2,713 2,745 2,713 2,742 2,750 2,729 -21 34 12
Palm Oil
Turnover: 334,104 lots, or 15.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 4,230 4,246 4,172 4,182 4,232 4,196 -36 25,270 74,154
Feb-19 – – – 4,368 4,368 4,368 0 0 30
Mar-19 – – – 4,414 4,414 4,414 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,548 4,586 4,548 -38 0 18
May-19 4,608 4,626 4,580 4,600 4,614 4,602 -12 301,616 443,094
Jun-19 – – – 4,738 4,738 4,738 0 0 54
Jul-19 – – – 4,668 4,680 4,668 -12 0 24
Aug-19 – – – 4,664 4,664 4,664 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,678 4,696 4,640 4,658 4,690 4,666 -24 7,218 43,692
Oct-19 – – – 4,744 4,744 4,744 0 0 22
Nov-19 – – – 4,784 4,784 4,784 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 4,636 4,636 4,636 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 274,056 lots, or 14.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 5,118 5,128 5,042 5,048 5,098 5,070 -28 48,842 97,490
Mar-19 – – – 5,184 5,184 5,184 0 0 150
May-19 5,450 5,458 5,420 5,442 5,440 5,440 0 207,110 632,940
Jul-19 – – – 5,480 5,480 5,480 0 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 5,500 5,500 5,500 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,526 5,536 5,504 5,520 5,526 5,518 -8 18,104 87,542
Nov-19 – – – 5,536 5,544 5,536 -8 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322