About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Alerts History
USDA SAYS 5.49 MLN TONS OF U.S. SOYBEANS CRUSHED IN OCTOBER
—-Trade estimate was for a crush of 5.488 mln tons—–
Alerts History
USDA SAYS 462.0 MILLION BUSHELS OF CORN USED FOR FUEL ALCOHOL IN OCTOBER, DOWN FROM 470.1 MILLION A YEAR AGO
USDA SAYS 1.980 MILLION TONS OF DDGS PRODUCED IN OCTOBER, UP FROM 1.962 MILLION A YEAR AGO

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 3
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 29, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/29/2018 11/22/2018 11/30/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 73 0 5,824 16,690
CORN 1,035,255 1,182,033 605,129 14,201,513 7,886,258
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 194 4,673
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 1,294 4,991
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 107,545 13,497 268,858 347,269 1,084,875
SOYBEANS 1,041,666 1,123,047 1,803,095 13,253,543 22,857,484
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 472,665 287,603 410,974 10,579,519 12,776,463
Total 2,657,131 2,606,253 3,088,056 38,389,156 44,631,458
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec. 05, 2018 1 Nov 20, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec. 05, 2018 1078 Dec 03, 2018
CORN December Dec. 05, 2018 2 May 24, 2018
ETHANOL December Dec. 05, 2018 11 Dec 03, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT December Dec. 05, 2018 52 Nov 23, 2018
OATS December Dec. 05, 2018 6 Nov 29, 2018

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat was higher yesterday in all three markets. Chart trends are turning up in all three markets after the price action yesterday and late last week. Bad news about world crops and the trade truce between the US and China created a lot of the buying. Wheat will only indirectly benefit from the trade truce for now.. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is about to improve, and the weekly charts show that more buying is possible in the next few weeks. The planting of the Winter Wheat crops in the US has been delayed due to bad weather. Too much rain and too much cold weather has made getting the crop in and established in a timely fashion very difficult. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia showed the potential for strong exports this year. It remains very dry in Australia, although some eastern areas have seen some rain and conditions are called generally good in the west. It is reported to be wet and cold in Siberia for the Spring Wheat harvest there, and planting conditions are reported to be dry near the Black Sea. The Spring Wheat harvest in Siberia has been delayed due to snow storms.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather this week and some precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be variable. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 527 and 540 March. Support is at 516, 510, and 504 March, with resistance at 529, 533, and 540 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 516 and 534 March. Support is at 501, 491, and 485 March, with resistance at 512, 520, and 527 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 585 and 594 March. Support is at 576, 572, and 568 March, and resistance is at 586, 588, and 593 March.

DJ Australia’s Winter Crop Seen Well Below 20-Year Average — Market Talk
22:25 GMT – With drought gripping large tracts of eastern Australia, the country’s agricultural forecaster sees winter crop production 20% below the 20-year average, coming in at 29.3M tons for 2018-19. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics says crop prospects deteriorated in early spring because of unfavorable seasonal conditions, but production will be substantially higher than droughts a decade ago. Western Australia state is expected to account for 56% of national winter crop production in 2018-19, compared with an average of 36% in the 20 years to 2017-18. National winter crop production is forecast to be 23% below last year, with wheat production seen falling by 20% to around 17M tons, barley falling by 18% to around 7.3M tons and canola declining by 39% to around 2.2M tons. (rob.taylor@wsj.com;

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday amid the trade in the tariff wars between the US and China and almost no selling interest from US producers. Rice will not   directly benefit from the truce for now, but the industry in the US has worked very hard to open up the China market for US Rice and moves like those seen over the weekend can help make that goal a reality. The futures market remains stuck in a trading range for now, but there will not be much selling interest unless prices rally, implying that mills and exporters will need to buy futures or pay up in the cash market if and when they need supplies. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time. It is the holiday period, and this time is always a slow time for US Rice futures. Most producers would rather take part in holiday activities or go hunting rather than sell Rice, and the mills appear covered for now. The export demand is holding relatively strong. However, the exporters appear to be covered for now.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather, but precipitation is possible on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be below normal. . .
Chart Analysis: The Delta should mostly dry weather excerpt for some showers and rain on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday on spillover buying from the announced trade truce between the US and China. Corn is not likely to directly participate in sales to China, but could benefit if China buys a lot of US pork.The fundamental situation for Corn continues to support prices, anyway. The market has been worried about ethanol demand, but crude oil and products prices might have washed out and are starting to show a recovery. Crude Oil futures have been in a free fall since the beginning of October, but now might bottom as demand should hold strong and prices are now cheap enough that producers might wait on new sales. The weather in the Midwest was not very good for harvesting over the weekend. The temperatures finally moderated from some extreme cold levels for this time of year, but precipitation was noted, including some snow for Iowa and Nebraska that extended into parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Big rains were noted to the south of the snow. Cold, but quiet conditions are expected for much of this week. Planting progress in southern Brazil is reported to be ahead of the normal pace. Argentine planting progress is in line with its average pace. The Brazil Corn will most likely stay in the country as the short crops last year led to shortages and imports. Brazil could still be forced to import more Corn from Argentina in the near term as well. Brazil is not expected to be a player in Corn in the world market until the Winter crop becomes available in the middle of next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 378, 372, and 370 March, and resistance is at 386, 390, and 394 March. Trends in Oats are mixed . Support is at 289, 287, and 285 March, and resistance is at 299, 306, and 317 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were sharply higher to start the week, and could rally further this week. The initial move found new selling, with some speculators and some producers taking advantage of the rally to do some selling A truce in the tariff wars between China and the US was made in Buenos Aires over the weekend. The US has agreed to keep the tariffs as they are in return for some Chinese buying in US ag markets and continued talks about opening up the Chinese markets and the rest of the disputed areas. China has refused to buy US Soybeans due to the trade disputes, and the US farmer has suffered, but now the market will look for business in the very short-term. It will be interesting to see how much appears as ideas are that many have already covered needs in South America. In addition, the Swine Flu epidemic in China has reduced the need for Feed for now., The US had a huge crop this year as producers anticipated stronger prices and strong Chinese demand. Brazil has been planting and plans on bigger crops. Argentina is also planting, but most of the trade attention is on Brazil. Producers in southern areas are ahead of the normal pace for planting progress, and there are ideas that the country could start to ship new crop Soybeans to China by the middle of January, a full month or more ahead of normal. Meanwhile, ending stocks projections for the US are very high and give little reason to expect a major rally anytime soon. Wet weather over the weekend in the Midwest and Great Plains kept any harvesting to a minimum. The weather this week should feature cold temperatures and drier conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 929 January. Support is at 905, 894, and 880 January, and resistance is at 926, 933, and 937 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 327.00 and 344.00 January. Support is at 310.00, 307.00, and 303.00 January, and resistance is at 315.00, 318.00, and 320.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2900 and 2990 January. Support is at 2820, 2810, and 2770 January, with resistance at 2880, 2890, and 2920 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was high on Chicago and ideas of improved trade potential in the world market. Some selling came on good weather in South America that are producing ideas of huge crops there. The truce in the trade war between the US and China created buying on ideas that Canola demand could improve as well. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting. Price action on the daily charts is weak as the market wants bigger demand to offset ideas of increased production. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend, but the market is getting very oversold. Palm Oil was higher on follow through buying tied to a weaker Ringgit. Futures had flushed to new lows early in the week on news that Indonesia is lowering export tariffs in an effort to boost sales. The country had maintained higher tariffs as it was keeping Palm Oil in the country for use in bio fuels. However, futures have rallied since in part on Chicago price action and in part on hopes that the US and China can find a trade deal. The private export reports were lower than last month, but the pace of exports improved over the second half of the month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 485.00 and 494.00 January. Support is at 476.00, 472.00, and 471.00 January, with resistance at 485.00, 489.00, and 492.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 1980, 1940, and 1930 February, with resistance at 2040, 2060, and 2080 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 36 March 152 March 65 March 10 January 3 January
January 42 Marcy 65 March 13 January
February 48 March 65 March 12 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
December 55 March
January -11 January
February 75 March -13 March

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 3
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 457.40 up 0.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 496.70 up 2.30
2 Can 483.70 up 2.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 511.70 up 2.30
2 Can 498.70 up 2.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 472.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 487.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 515.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 545.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 477.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 492.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 520.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 550.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 442.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 315.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1,820.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 174.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1480)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 227,202 lots, or 7.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,323 3,333 3,244 3,274 3,323 3,286 -37 161,530 198,712
Mar-19 3,358 3,358 3,318 3,318 3,379 3,327 -52 76 234
May-19 3,561 3,564 3,477 3,492 3,551 3,508 -43 62,560 81,730
Jul-19 3,553 3,553 3,509 3,509 3,603 3,531 -72 4 6
Sep-19 3,613 3,615 3,527 3,544 3,606 3,568 -38 2,776 7,658
Nov-19 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,653 3,600 -53 2 14
Jan-20 3,582 3,584 3,518 3,534 3,597 3,537 -60 254 1,104
Corn
Turnover: 1,256,226 lots, or 23.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,880 1,881 1,864 1,864 1,891 1,869 -22 225,368 283,838
Mar-19 1,910 1,910 1,880 1,882 1,899 1,884 -15 14,482 10,240
May-19 1,909 1,913 1,875 1,879 1,916 1,891 -25 897,616 1,030,106
Jul-19 1,921 1,923 1,886 1,892 1,923 1,895 -28 5,566 13,824
Sep-19 1,928 1,931 1,890 1,900 1,936 1,906 -30 109,844 264,338
Nov-19 1,955 1,956 1,919 1,924 1,959 1,935 -24 3,350 1,508
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,568,318 lots, or 72.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-18 – – – 2,983 2,983 2,983 0 0 40
Jan-19 3,018 3,022 2,899 2,919 3,016 2,952 -64 1,232,154 798,252
Mar-19 2,863 2,867 2,783 2,808 2,884 2,835 -49 263,694 112,518
May-19 2,740 2,740 2,654 2,682 2,715 2,685 -30 979,892 1,195,594
Jul-19 2,720 2,722 2,657 2,678 2,703 2,685 -18 3,484 8,610
Aug-19 2,711 2,711 2,683 2,695 2,724 2,694 -30 36 246
Sep-19 2,761 2,765 2,697 2,721 2,745 2,722 -23 87,022 249,346
Nov-19 2,770 2,774 2,717 2,744 2,756 2,737 -19 2,036 1,348
Palm Oil
Turnover: 386,540 lots, or 16.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-18 – – – 4,398 4,398 4,398 0 0 0
Jan-19 4,210 4,248 4,188 4,224 4,246 4,216 -30 181,146 266,030
Feb-19 – – – 4,300 4,300 4,300 0 0 6
Mar-19 – – – 4,458 4,458 4,458 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,524 4,524 4,524 0 0 18
May-19 4,500 4,544 4,484 4,514 4,538 4,510 -28 197,300 322,892
Jun-19 – – – 4,590 4,590 4,590 0 0 60
Jul-19 – – – 4,594 4,594 4,594 0 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,616 4,616 4,616 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,602 4,642 4,588 4,616 4,636 4,612 -24 8,092 32,942
Oct-19 4,654 4,654 4,654 4,654 4,666 4,654 -12 2 20
Nov-19 – – – 4,644 4,644 4,644 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 446,046 lots, or 24.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-18 – – – 5,284 5,284 5,284 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,382 5,430 5,360 5,400 5,408 5,392 -16 219,192 417,772
Mar-19 5,522 5,524 5,476 5,476 5,494 5,500 6 16 132
May-19 5,516 5,574 5,504 5,534 5,548 5,536 -12 219,950 512,056
Jul-19 – – – 5,536 5,546 5,536 -10 0 36
Aug-19 5,666 5,666 5,580 5,580 5,630 5,616 -14 16 4
Sep-19 5,608 5,642 5,590 5,610 5,626 5,610 -16 6,872 54,554
Nov-19 – – – 5,624 5,640 5,624 -16 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322