About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week. The market is likely to rally this week due to the truce in the tariff war between China and the US that was made over the weekend. Wire and anecdotal reports still suggest that the harvest pace is poor. Most of the delays have been in Texas due to too much rain, but some delays in the Southeast have also been reported. The delayed harvest could cause yield and quality losses. The market needs new demand. Export sales for the last few weeks have been poor, and last week where sales were good. However, the better sales for one week were not enough to change attitudes about demand, and the weakness in petroleum futures meant that more poly products could be produced cheaper to compete with Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather and variable temperatures. The Southeast will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be variable. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 74.27 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 145,635 bales, from 143,968 bales yesterday. ICE said that 10 notices were posted against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 680 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7760, 7720, and 7660 March, with resistance of 7940, 8010, and 8070 March.

DJ USDA Volume of Cotton Classed Report – Nov 30
Data quoted in bales for week ending Nov 29. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 337,740 2,250,324 Southwest 489,548 3,111,825
NC 69,112 488,311 Okla 32,888 112,930
SC 31,872 195,426 Texas 449,838 2,980,037
Ga 155,139 965,172 Kansas 6,822 18,858
Ala 57,330 449,377
Fla 8,111 37,273 Far West 34,512 163,237
Va 16,176 114,765 NM 3,120 7,545
Ariz 18,646 77,111
Delta 381,780 3,421,867 Calif 12,746 78,581
Miss 113,010 956,851
Tenn 77,872 615,290 Pima 44,578 274,956
Mo 65,136 573,410 Other 0 0
Ark 102,204 937,596 Total US 1,288,158 9,222,209
La 23,558 338,720 pct tenderable 70.2 66.6

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 267,331
: Positions :
: 41,781 24,665 55,977 60,456 163,883 93,684 9,352 251,898 253,877: 15,432 13,454
: Changes from: November 20, 2018 (Change in open interest: -3,773) :
: -1,972 921 2,443 -3,300 -6,842 -352 -321 -3,181 -3,799: -593 26
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 9.2 20.9 22.6 61.3 35.0 3.5 94.2 95.0: 5.8 5.0
: Total Traders: 282 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 68 92 51 64 45 16 228 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower as cold, but not threatening weather, was reported in Florida. The weather has turned warmer and drier in the state, and an active harvest is likely. Some selling was noted on demand concerns and both the domestic and export market remain soft. The soft domestic market has been a feature for several years as more and more people look to pills or other ways to get Vitamin C. The EU had been importing a lot of US FCOJ, but now all of that business is going to Brazil. It is still possible that a short-term low has been made. The Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack report showed that inventories are now 16% above a year ago. That is a significant change, but less than the difference of a few months ago that ran well over 20% The Oranges harvest is active in Florida under good weather conditions. The fruit is abundant. Florida producers are seeing small-sized to good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and a couple of major processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or light showers, with best amounts and coverage tomorrow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 145.00, 146.00, and 150.00 January. Support is at 140.00, 138.00, and 137.00 January, with resistance at 145.00, 149.00, and 151.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets as the trade waited for more offers from Brazil and Vietnam. Currency relationships, and especially the rate between the US Dollar and the Brazilian Real, continue to be the driving force in Coffee trading, and weaker outside markets such as the extreme weakness in petroleum futures added to find selling interest on Friday. Commercials were said to be the best buyers. The Brazil crops are getting harvested now, but are not always finding their way to the market due to the overall Real strength against the Dollar. Producers are also looking ahead to next year. El Nino remains in the forecast and Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by drought. This is the off-year for production there, anyway, and a drought would mean even less production. Vietnam is getting close to its next harvest. Production in Vietnam is estimated at or above 30 million bags. Producers in both countries are not selling much. Some problems with too much rain have been noted in Central America. Drier conditions are wanted for harvesting, and mostly dry weather is in the forecast.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.448 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 104.40 ct/lb. Brazil will get chances for showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers. ICE said that 3 contracts were delivered against ICE New York December futures today and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,044 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 103.00 March. Support is at 107.00, 105.00, and 104.00 March, and resistance is at 110.00, 112.00 and 115.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1500 January. Support is at 1560, 1540, and 1520 January, and resistance is at 1640, 1660, and 1670 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 281,974
: Positions :
: 24,735 63,706 64,233 114,908 123,428 66,521 23,142 270,397 274,509: 11,577 7,464
: Changes from: November 20, 2018 (Change in open interest: 2,055) :
: -875 -729 -964 3,761 3,280 88 772 2,010 2,358: 44 -304
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 22.6 22.8 40.8 43.8 23.6 8.2 95.9 97.4: 4.1 2.6
: Total Traders: 424 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 133 120 128 115 44 25 344 323:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/27/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
126,484 70,001 73,920 6,733 3,638 1,616
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.3% 58.4% 5.3% 2.9% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 54 46 12 3 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,302 11,746 11,667 812 2,780 17,120
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
10.5% 9.3% 9.2% 0.6% 2.2% 13.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 18 16 10 7 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,234 3,996
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.1% 3.2%

DJ Vietnam’s Bean Issues Unlikely Generalized — Market Talk
0359 GMT – Vietnam has started the 2018/19 harvest with some bean issues such as the beans being smaller than usual or fruits without the beans inside, but it is unlikely that they are generalized, says Rabobank in a note. It expects that Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, will produce 31.1 million bags of coffee in the 2018-19, a record volume. But “rainy weather may result in a delayed harvest and in poor tasting quality coffee.” Frontmonth robusta coffee is trading down $40 a metric ton at $1,615 a metric ton.(lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed slightly higher in both New York and London. The recovery in Sugar prices appeared tied to higher Crude Oil and products futures after Crude Oil made new lows for the move. The rally also came from follow through buying tied to chart support as futures in New York have held at the 1230 March area and some speculators decided to cover short positions. Ideas for world Sugarcane and Sugar beets production continue to work a little lower, and ideas that Brazil will continue to process Sugarcane for ethanol remain. These ideas remain even through Green Pool of Australia estimated the world surplus at 3.60 million tons raw, from 3.22 million tons in its previous estimate. Unica showed once again this week that Brazil refiners are producing much more ethanol than a year ago at the expense of Sugar, and this trend will continue unless prices for Sugar start to increase. Production losses are also expected in India due to hot and dry weather earlier in the growing season. Dry conditions continue in the EU and Russia. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but dry conditions early in the year might have hurt yields. Thailand expects less planted area next year due to the weak prices now. Brazil producers are worried about Cane production, and less production is expected this year. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1330 March. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1320, 1350, and 1370 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 343.00, 341.00, and 339.00 March, and resistance is at 354.00, 355.00, and 361.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 987,553
: Positions :
: 86,518 140,689 216,314 309,271 528,030 301,430 45,194 913,533 930,226: 74,020 57,327
: Changes from: November 20, 2018 (Change in open interest: 21,239) :
: -5,786 6,803 12,631 13,893 -4,171 -1,921 922 18,817 16,185: 2,422 5,054
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 14.2 21.9 31.3 53.5 30.5 4.6 92.5 94.2: 7.5 5.8
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 63 89 81 80 35 22 222 213:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/27/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
89,451 40,649 70,589 12,058 1,087 1,191
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 45.4% 78.9% 13.5% 1.2% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
129 48 56 10 2 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
17,186 4,205 7,190 3,960 509 2,161
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.2% 4.7% 8.0% 4.4% 0.6% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 10 14 8 4 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,056 2,519
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.7% 2.8%

COCOA
General Comments Futures closed higher in both markets on what appeared to be speculative short covering. Futures prices in both markets are still in a short-term trading range, but both markets are still holding support areas on the charts. Some commercial buying was seen due to overall attractive prices and ideas of increasing demand from chocolate manufacturers. Quality reports from West Africa are good and grinders are there in the ports and are willing to buy. That is supporting prices. Funds remain the best sellers and have been increasing net short positions until now. The main crop harvest is active in West Africa. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.491 million bags. ICE said that 2 notices were posted for delivery against December New York futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 492 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2160, 2100, and 2080 March, with resistance at 2230, 2270, and 2300 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1500 March. Support is at 1560, 1540, and 1520 March, with resistance at 1630, 1660, and 1680 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 275,380
: Positions :
: 32,348 55,634 53,372 117,196 140,583 59,738 16,080 262,653 265,668: 12,726 9,712
: Changes from: November 20, 2018 (Change in open interest: 4,692) :
: -1,451 -185 7,991 528 -1,295 -3,394 -1,847 3,674 4,663: 1,018 29
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.7 20.2 19.4 42.6 51.1 21.7 5.8 95.4 96.5: 4.6 3.5
: Total Traders: 214 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 66 66 42 44 31 12 168 155:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/27/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
321,267 182,122 195,369 39,777 9,984 23,888
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.7% 60.8% 12.4% 3.1% 7.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 55 49 19 7 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,864 38,332 20,249 4,290 1,371 27,163
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.2% 11.9% 6.3% 1.3% 0.4% 8.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 23 11 10 10 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,913 4,911
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 1.5%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322