About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

JAN BEANS

Needless to say, this W/E has the feel of a major report! The political rhetoric. In front of the G-20 meeting has been all over the map but the mkt appears to be quite Sanguine the “arrows are pointing up” – with Jan Beans closing on 6-wk highs! If logic still counts, I’d say a resolution is imminent – Trump’s economy dearly needs it & he knows it!

                    FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,105 (600-1,200) & Thur Inspections were 628,000 (400-900)

30 Nov   120,000          Unk

28 Nov   268,748          Unk

23 Nov   120,00             Unk

20 Nov   123,567           Unk

16 Nov   100,000           Unk

14 Nov   148,000           Unk

13 Nov   276,732           Unk

  • HARVEST PROGRESS – it’s over – 94 (lw – 91 avg- 98)

Ill – 100 ( 100)    Ind – 95 (98)  Iowa – 98 (100)

But a caveat – as some of my producer customers are still at it due to inclement weather!

  • NEXT USDA REPORT JAN – I’m guessing the numbers will be coming lower than Nov –  4600  –  52.1 – typically, the last 15-20% of harvest is not the best – as weather takes its toll
  • G-20 SUMMIT IN ARGENTINA – this kind of reminds us of the boy “who cried wolf once too often” – yes we’ve heard many times before that resolution is imminent – but this time, there’s traction! The stock mkt has taken a hit due to disappointing tech stocks, rising interest rates, big lay-offs announced by GM & indeed the Tariffs – & the economy has been “Trumps Crown Jewel” – he needs to give it a boost & a trade deal would do just that – maybe not signed, sealed & delivered Monday morning but soon!
  • OUTSIDE MKTS – as we’ve said before, they have not been the mkt’s. Friend but the sheer fact the grains have held a tight range while the US Dollar has rallied & the Crude has lost 35% of its value – displays resilient bullish divergence!

The trade snafu with China is hurting them & us – and they finally both.  Realize it! So a resolution makes a lot of sense – but as we all know – politics doesn’t always heed logic & good sense – let’s hope this time, it does!!

DEC CORN

Why the mkt with the strongest fundamentals has been the laggard – of late – is mystery to us! Crude Oil’s free fall has certainly done Corn no favors! But the simple fact that US Corn is the cheapest in the world – will go a long way in fortifying its much-needed exports!  We seldom recommend “trading price” but “10 year low” price levels can’t be ignored!

                    FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,117 (700-1,100) & Thur  Sales were 1,270 (400-950)

23 Nov    132,000       S Korea

19 Nov    138,000       S Korea

14 Nov    212,000       Mexico

05 Nov    101,745       Mexico

  • HARVEST PROGRESS – 94% in (lw – 90 avg – 96) – Ill –  100 (99)   Ind – 95 (96)  Iowa – 96 (97)
  • DECLINING YIELDS FOR THE JAN REPORT– the decline in the Nov Report – 178.9 (180.7) was surprising & this trend will most certainly continue in the Jan Final #’s  – as early winter weather has hurt the yields of the corn still out
  • TRADE RESOLUTION – of course all eyes on the G-20 Summit this W/E in Buenos Aires – the fact that the NAFTA pact with Canada & Mexico was finalized yesterday bodes well for progress with the US/China deal.
  • CRUDE OIL – the shocking $25 drop in just a month’s time could well be unprecedented in modern times – the good news is that corn didn’t follow crude down but stayed in a tight range

10 year lows, stellar exports & a trade deal SHOULD BE  a recipe for Higher prices – we’ll see!!

DEC WHT

Dec wht paid scant attention to its own fundamentals and reserved the LIONS SHARE to corn & beans & the impending trade deal – and justifiably so!  Bearish Global acreage news, Russian/Ukraine conflicts & occasional Egyptian tenders for US wheat are all worthy news items but the real mkt maker is the 800 pound Gorilla that is the US/China trade deal – to wit, Friday’s action where a general mkt optimism over the upcoming G-20 Summit  buoyed the entire grain complex – not the least of which was Dec Wht which rallied 18 cents to a 3-wk high!!

DEC CAT

Dec cat experienced a volatile week – being down $1.50 early Thur and up $.50 early yesterday – before closing the wk – basically unchanged!  So the positives –very strong consumer demand & a potential trade deal – were exactly offset by the negatives a record supply of pork/poultry,  a premium to cash & a demand-deterring early Winter Storm!

DEC HOGS

Trading the hog mkt is tricky proposition  – kind of like “waiting for the other shoe to drop”!  Mainly due to the fact that we’re dealing with a potentially massive bullish influence that is AFRICAN SWINE FLU – an insidious disease currently afflicting the China Hog Herd – which is both incurable & very contagious!  But the expected prodigious pork imports by China have not begin but most certainly will – starting in early 2019!  Meanwhile, Dec Hog’s current premium to cash & record pork production precipitated a healthy $4.00 correction off the highs – but the shorts are reluctant to get over-zealous about the downside!

         

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