About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec. 03, 2018 211 Nov 19, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec. 03, 2018 1188 Nov 29, 2018
CORN December Dec. 03, 2018 2 Nov 30, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat was lower on weak export sales. The bullish trader still has hopes for new business for US Wheat in world markets due to competitive prices amid ideas are that other importers will start to buy American as supplies from other sellers are running low. However, the business has not started to show up yet, and the market is now in the second half of the production year. Planting of the Winter Wheat crops in the US has been delayed due to bad weather. Too much rain and too much cold weather has made getting the crop in and established in a timely fashion very difficult. These problems could mean reduced production last year, especially if the last of the crop is not planted soon. Crop condition for the new Winter Wheat has been on par with last year and the five-year average. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia showed the potential for strong exports this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather or light precipitation. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather or light precipitation, with precipitation likely late this week. Temperatures should be variable. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 504, 500, and 494 March, with resistance at 514, 517, and 522 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 491, 485, and 384 March, with resistance at 501, 508, and 511 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 565 and 519 March. Support is at 563, 559, and 554 March, and resistance is at 574, 576, and 578 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday after another slow session. The weekly export sales report was poor, but reflected the nature of the US market at this time. The futures market remains stuck in a trading range for now, but there will not be much selling interest unless prices rally, implying that mills and exporters will need to buy futures or pay up in the cash market if and when they need supplies. Producers do not seem interested in further sales at this time. It is the holiday period, and this time is always a slow time for US Rice futures. Most producers would rather take part in holiday activities or go hunting rather than sell Rice, and the mills appear covered for now. The export demand is holding strong. However, the exporters appear to be covered for now. It might take until after the first of the year to see much movement in Rice futures and cash markets. This is normal for the US Rice market.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather, but precipitation is possible on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should be below normal. . .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1085, 1081, and 1068 January, with resistance at 1094, 1099, and 1116 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged after a slow session. Support came from a stronger than expected weekly export sales report as well as on bad weather that continues to inhibit the last part of the harvest. The weather in the Midwest is still cold and the snow is not melting. Warmer temperatura=es now through this weekend will come with rain to keep the final harvest slow, then cold weather will return the next week. USDA said that about 6% of the Corn is still in the fields as of last week, and there has not been much progress since then. Planting progress in southern Brazil is reported to be ahead of the normal pace. Argentine planting progress is in line with its average pace. The Brazil Corn most likely will stay in the country as the short crops last year led to shortages and imports. Brazil could still be forced to import more Corn from Argentina in the near term as well. Brazil is not expected to be a player in Corn in the world market until the Winter crop becomes available in the middle of next year. Growing conditions in both countries are called good. Oats moved sharply higher on currency concerns and as little is available from Canada for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 367 and 355 March. Support is at 372, 370, and 367 March, and resistance is at 377, 379, and 383 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 308 and 329 March. Support is at 289, 287, and 280 March, and resistance is at 299, 306, and 317 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower as traders wait for progress in resolving the tariff war between the US and China. The market saw news reports of a potential compromise for the two sides that would mostly kick the final solution, but also some additional tariffs, down the road. The US appears ready to agree to postpone any additional increases in tariffs in return for Chinese assurances that talks on major economic reforms for the country will continue. It appears to be a face-saving measure that allows both sides to claim a victory to their people back home. The trade war hurts both China and the US consumer and Soybeans producer. Consumers will pay more for products made in China. China has refused to buy US Soybeans due to the trade disputes, and the US farmer has suffered. He is getting prices much lower than other world sellers even though the US export sales pace has been respectable. Brazil has been planting and plans on bigger crops. Sources in the country said that production could exceed 130 million tons. Argentina is also planting, and production could come close to 60 million tons. Producers in southern areas of Brazil are ahead of the normal pace for planting progress, and there are ideas that the country could start to ship new crop Soybeans to China by the middle of January, a full month or more ahead of normal. The weather in the Midwest should feature moderating temperatures after a very cold start to the week. More precipitation is expected more generally in the Midwest over the weekend. Cold temperatures return by the middle of nest week
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 880, 871, and 864 January, and resistance is at 894, 897, and 901 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 303.00, and 300.00 January, and resistance is at 312.00, 315.00, and 318.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2770, 2760, and 2740 January, with resistance at 2830, 2840, and 2880 January.

DJ U.S. Increasing Next Year’s Advanced Biofuel Mandate -Reuters
–The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has raised the blending mandate on advanced biofuels for next year, while keeping the requirement for conventional biofuels steady, Reuters reported Thursday, citing “an agency document seen by Reuters.”
–The mandate for advanced biofuels, which can be produced from plant and animal waste, was raised to 4.92 billion gallons, up from the 4.29 billion set for 2018, the report said.
–The mandate for conventional biofuel next year remains at 15 billion gallons, the report said.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on Chicago and good weather in South America that are producing ideas of huge crops there. Ideas that there could be some progress son the US-China trade disputes this weekend helped support buying interest. Commercials have plenty on hand for crushing or exporting. Price action on the daily charts is weak as the market wants bigger demand to offset ideas of increased production. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend, but the market is getting very oversold. Palm Oil was higher on follow through buying tied to a weaker Ringgit. Futures had flushed to new lows early in the week on news that Indonesia is lowering export tariffs in an effort to boost sales. The country had maintained higher tariffs as it was keeping Palm Oil in the country for use in bio fuels. However, futures have rallied since in part on Chicago price action and in part on hopes that the US and China can find a trade deal. The private export reports were lower than last month, but the pace of exports improved over the second half of the month.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.241 million tons in November, from 1.427 million in October. AmSpec said that exports were 1.250 million tons in November, from 1.393 million in October.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 476.00, 472.00, and 471.00 January, with resistance at 481.00, 483.00, and 485.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1940 February, with resistance at 2040, 2060, and 2080 February.

DJ Indonesian Palm-Oil Supplies Down as Demand Rises — Market Talk
0236 GMT – Indonesian palm-oil stocks fell 4.2% last month as domestic consumption picked up and export demand improved, according to data released by the Indonesia Palm Oil Board. However, supplies at 4.4 million metric tons remain significant higher than they were in 1Q, and concerns about growing stockpiles have been key to recent softness in palm-oil prices. Bursa Malaysia’s benchmark futures contract opened up 0.2% at MYR2,031/ton. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain or snow showers are possible this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly below normal until normal temperatures return this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 160 December 3 December
December 80 December
January 42 March 63 March 21 January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
November
December -7 December 80 December
January -8 January

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 29
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 457.20 up 5.40
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 493.50 up 1.30
2 Can 480.50 dn 0.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 508.50 dn 0.70
2 Can 495.50 dn 0.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 482.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 495.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 520.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 547.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 487.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 500.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 525.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 442.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 320.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1,860.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 175.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1868)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 125,838 lots, or 4.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,327 3,365 3,320 3,355 3,324 3,344 20 110,282 191,804
Mar-19 3,425 3,425 3,425 3,425 3,359 3,425 66 2 146
May-19 3,562 3,574 3,552 3,566 3,556 3,564 8 14,880 62,794
Jul-19 – – – 3,603 3,603 3,603 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,620 3,635 3,613 3,634 3,620 3,628 8 640 6,202
Nov-19 – – – 3,653 3,653 3,653 0 0 12
Jan-20 3,619 3,634 3,619 3,626 3,620 3,626 6 34 888
Corn
Turnover: 708,284 lots, or 13.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,919 1,921 1,909 1,917 1,922 1,914 -8 119,204 377,960
Mar-19 1,933 1,936 1,922 1,925 1,942 1,927 -15 6,560 9,670
May-19 1,958 1,961 1,947 1,953 1,963 1,953 -10 514,048 986,794
Jul-19 1,968 1,984 1,960 1,970 1,974 1,975 1 6,012 15,624
Sep-19 1,983 1,991 1,971 1,981 1,991 1,982 -9 60,422 252,360
Nov-19 2,011 2,014 2,001 2,008 2,016 2,008 -8 2,038 1,348
Soymeal
Turnover: 890,318 lots, or 25.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-18 3,010 3,058 2,948 2,948 3,100 3,009 -91 156 48
Jan-19 3,060 3,076 3,044 3,056 3,060 3,056 -4 470,814 901,200
Mar-19 2,900 2,919 2,894 2,894 2,929 2,906 -23 33,582 99,472
May-19 2,716 2,729 2,703 2,716 2,716 2,717 1 322,796 1,156,684
Jul-19 2,694 2,706 2,683 2,695 2,695 2,694 -1 1,158 8,432
Aug-19 2,715 2,725 2,701 2,710 2,705 2,715 10 34 230
Sep-19 2,733 2,746 2,720 2,730 2,733 2,730 -3 61,004 235,746
Nov-19 2,754 2,756 2,736 2,746 2,748 2,746 -2 774 1,150
Palm Oil
Turnover: 268,048 lots, or 11.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-18 – – – 4,398 4,398 4,398 0 0 0
Jan-19 4,216 4,244 4,212 4,230 4,214 4,226 12 146,390 289,134
Feb-19 – – – 4,300 4,288 4,300 12 0 6
Mar-19 – – – 4,404 4,404 4,404 0 0 6
Apr-19 – – – 4,470 4,458 4,470 12 0 18
May-19 4,518 4,536 4,506 4,522 4,518 4,520 2 111,636 304,034
Jun-19 – – – 4,590 4,588 4,590 2 0 60
Jul-19 – – – 4,594 4,592 4,594 2 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,616 4,616 4,616 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,608 4,630 4,604 4,622 4,618 4,618 0 10,022 33,766
Oct-19 – – – 4,648 4,648 4,648 0 0 20
Nov-19 – – – 4,644 4,644 4,644 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 226,832 lots, or 12.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-18 5,284 5,284 5,284 5,284 5,284 5,284 0 4 18
Jan-19 5,396 5,450 5,390 5,442 5,396 5,418 22 140,886 445,030
Mar-19 5,524 5,596 5,524 5,596 5,488 5,584 96 12 120
May-19 5,534 5,556 5,522 5,556 5,542 5,538 -4 82,650 458,350
Jul-19 – – – 5,546 5,550 5,546 -4 0 36
Aug-19 – – – 5,620 5,624 5,620 -4 0 2
Sep-19 5,608 5,630 5,594 5,630 5,612 5,610 -2 3,280 54,344
Nov-19 – – – 5,640 5,640 5,640 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322