Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
Busy report day before our Thanksgiving feast starting with Advanced Durable Goods and Jobless Claims at 7:30 A.M., Existing Home Sales at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., Cattle on Feed, EIA Gas Storage at 11:00 A.M. followed bu Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M. On the Grain front we saw a surprising rally in the Soybeans as cheap prices attracted buyers to buy value. This rally even thwarted the bleeding of the massive selloff in the Stock Market that trickled into the commodity sector. On the Corn front, not so lucky with cancellations on exports and news of the swine fever is becoming a reality that has been previously forecasted. This was another spillover with China a major player in the Corn and Pork markets. We still have weather issues depending on what part of the lower 48 you are in. It is either too hot or too cold with wildfires raging in California and our hearts and prayers go out to the people who suffered losses in life and their homes. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 360 ¾ which is a ½ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 362 ¾ to 360 ½.
On the Ethanol front the boost in production does not have evidence that it saves money or is conducive to the environment. It should be good for exports to China but with Brazil aggressively moving to be the world’s largest exporter and producer, there are a lot of questions still left unanswered. In the overnight electronic session the December Ethanol is currently trading at 1.259 which is .009 higher. The trading range has been 1.276 to 1.259. 3 contracts traded and Open Interest is dwindling to 1,138 contracts. The market is currently showing 2 bids @ 1.252 and 2 offers @ 1.259.
On the Crude Oil front the insanity selloff may have finally found it’s bounce after yesterday’s brow beating. The API Energy Stocks had a bullish spin and the Crude Oil slowly gathered its legs. Today’s EIA Energy Stocks could show the supply & demand issue and the market should trade back to reality. In the overnight electronic session the January Crude Oil is currently trading at 5436 which is 93 points higher. The trading range has been 5485 to 5339.
On the Natural Gas front we have the EIA Gas Storage number a day early which will be released at 11:00 A.M. Colder than normal temperatures for the Plains, Mid-West and the Eastern states have awoken a sleeping giant. The Thomson Reuters weekly poll with 18 analysts participating expect draws of anywhere from 92 bcf to 121 bcf with the median draw of 109 bcf. This will be the first withdrawal of the 2018-2019 winter season and the earliest triple digit storage in November on record, according to federal energy data dating back tp 1994. These numbers also compare to the one-year draw of 35 bcf and the five-year average of 49 bcf. Today’s data could propel prices in this holiday light volume market. In the overnight electronic session the December contract is current 4.608 which is 8 ½ cents higher. The treading range has been 4.864 to 4.530.
Happy Thanksgiving & Enjoy the Feast!
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374