About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Nov 8
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD========================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
18/19 17/18 16/17: 18/19 17/18 16/17: 18/19 17/18 16/17
Soybeans 955.0 438.0 302.0:155.44 153.19 147.39:367.50 338.57 348.95
Brazil na na: 77.00 76.19 63.14:120.50 119.80 114.60
Argentina na na: 8.00 2.11 7.03: 55.50 37.80 55.00
China na na: 0.10 0.15 0.11: 16.00 15.20 13.64
Soyoil 1,915 1,990 1,711: 11.21 10.36 11.25: 57.44 55.17 53.68
Corn 1,736 2,140 2,293:165.64 146.80 160.05:1,098.95 1,076.231,122.45
China na na: 0.05 0.02 0.08:256.00 259.07 263.61
Argentina na na: 28.00 23.00 25.99: 42.50 32.00 41.00
S.Africa na na: 1.90 2.30 2.29: 13.00 13.53 17.55
Cotton(a) 4.30 4.30 2.75: 41.13 40.94 37.90:119.39 123.70 106.66
All Wheat 949 1,099 1,181:178.79 181.25 183.35:733.51 763.06 756.51
China na na: 1.20 1.00 0.75:132.50 134.33 133.27
EU 27 na na: 23.00 23.29 27.43:137.60 151.26 145.37
Canada na na: 24.00 21.95 20.16: 31.50 29.98 32.14
Argentina na na: 14.20 12.00 13.83: 19.50 18.50 18.40
Australia na na: 11.50 14.00 22.64: 17.50 21.30 31.82
Russia na na: 35.00 41.42 27.81: 70.00 84.99 72.53
Ukraine na na: 16.50 17.78 18.11: 25.00 26.98 26.79
Sorghum 39.0 35.0 33.0: na na na
Barley 88.0 94.0 106.0: na na na
Oats 36.0 41.0 50.0: na na: na na na
Rice 46.7 29.4 46.0: 48.91 47.82 47.25:490.70 494.31 490.19

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Thursday and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2018 Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn Production 14,626.0 14,711 14,576-14,806 14,778
Corn Yield 178.9 180.0 178.2-181.4 180.7
Harvested Acres 81.8 81.8 81.5-81.8 81.8
Soybean Production 4,600.0 4,676 4,637-4,706 4,690
Soybean Yield 52.1 53.0 52.5-53.5 53.1
Harvested Acres 88.3 88.3 87.9-88.4 88.3
****
U.S. 2018-19 Stockpiles (millions)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 1,736.0 1,781 1,566-2,105 1,813
Soybeans 955.0 900 832-984 885
Wheat 949.0 966 925-1,025 956
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 340.9 198.3 198.0-199.5 198.2
Soybeans 99.7 96.9 96.7-98.0 96.7
Wheat 279.0 275.0 274.5-276.0 274.9
2018-19
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 307.5 158.6 156.9-160.2 159.4
Soybeans 112.1 110.8 107.3-113.5 110.0
Wheat 266.7 259.3 257.4-261.5 260.2

Alerts History
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT BTW 233.682 MLN T AND 238.285 MLN T VS 227.970 MLN TNS IN PRIOR SEASON- CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT BTW 116.770 MLN T AND 119.266 MLN T VS 119.281 T MLN IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL FIRST-CORN CROP SEEN AT BTW 26.283 MLN T AND 27.215 MLN T VS 26.810 MLN T IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT BTW 90.018 MLN T AND 90.950 MLN T VS 80.786 MLN T IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN YIELDS SEEN AT 3,302 KG/HA VS 3,394 KG/HA IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,407 KG/HA VS 4.857 KG/HA IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 CORN EXPORTS AT 31 MLN T VS 23 MLN T IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 76 MLN T VS 76 MLN T FORECAST FOR 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT BTW 233.682 MLN T AND 238.285 MLN T VS 227.970 MLN TNS IN PRIOR SEASON- CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT BTW 116.770 MLN T AND 119.266 MLN T VS 119.281 T MLN IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL FIRST-CORN CROP SEEN AT BTW 26.283 MLN T AND 27.215 MLN T VS 26.810 MLN T IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT BTW 90.018 MLN T AND 90.950 MLN T VS 80.786 MLN T IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN YIELDS SEEN AT 3,302 KG/HA VS 3,394 KG/HA IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,407 KG/HA VS 4.857 KG/HA IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 CORN EXPORTS AT 31 MLN T VS 23 MLN T IN 2017/18 – CONAB
• 08-Nov-2018 05:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 76 MLN T VS 76 MLN T FORECAST FOR 2017/18 – CONAB

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat was lower in response to the USDA reports that showed more than expected world supplies. USDA increased the Chinese supply and did not really cut other producers as much as they could have. It was the Chinese data that caused the big increase in world supplies. US data was mostly bullish as ending stocks were below expectations. The weekly export sales report showed better demand than seen in most reports so far this marketing year. Winter Wheat planting remains a little slow, and cold weather is coming. The cold might affect emergence if it persists. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production, although Russia showed the potential for strong exports this year in government data released yesterday. It remains very dry in Australia, although some eastern areas have seen some rain and conditions are called generally good in the west. It is reported to be wet and cold in Siberia for the Spring Wheat harvest there, and planting conditions are reported to be dry near the Black Sea. The Spring Wheat harvest in Siberia has been delayed.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather,. Temperatures should be below normal this week and above normal this weekend. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 502, 497, and 495 December, with resistance at 514, 519, and 521 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 495, 485, and 480 December, with resistance at 511, 516, and 520 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 578, 571, and 569 December, and resistance is at 590, 596, and 602 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower in reaction to the USDA reports USDA left Long Grain production alone, but cut demand to show an overall increase in ending stocks. USDA raised production for medium and small grains and also ending stocks.. Trading volumes were limited as producers are basically done with harvest and are doing other things. One thing they are not doing much of is selling Rice to mills or other merchants The chart patterns show that futures trends are sideways for now. Good to excellent yields were reported in Texas and Louisiana, and good to very good yield reports are being made in Mississippi and Arkansas.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather, but precipitation is possible today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be below normal. . .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1062, 1045, and 1040 January, with resistance at 1073, 1077, and 1086 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher in response to the USDA reports. USDA cut US yields and production more than expected. Demand was also trimmed, but not as much as supply, and ending stocks productions were lower. The ending stocks projections were low enough to point to higher prices. USDA showed a Sharp increase in world stocks projections due to major changes in Chinese production and supplies. These changes were a shock to the market and created initial selling. However, the market recovered as world supplies would have been less than last month if the Chinese changes were not included. The reports implied that higher prices are coming. The harvest continues and farmers are wrapping up the Soybeans harvest in many areas of the Midwest and going after the Corn harvest. Conditions remain more variable with some rain and dry weather mixed together and cool temperatures. Snow is possible in Chicago and other parts of the Midwest into the weekend.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 368, 366, and 365 December, and resistance is at 378, 382, and 388 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 282, 279, and 275 December, and resistance is at 290, 295, and 296 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed to lower. USDA cut production in its estimate yesterday. Yield and production projections were below the trade guesses. However, USDA finally cut the Chinese demand for US Soybeans and showed more ending stocks than trade projections. The initial reaction to the reports was bearish due to the Sharp increase in ending stocks, but the market was able to recover. It appears that most in the trade felt that the lost Chinese Business was already factored into the price and speculators and end users start to buy once the selling abated somewhat. It was a positive close considering the data. However, the huge ending stocks projections should serve to limit upside potential over time. There was little reaction to the stronger US Dollar and the weaker export sales report did not factor much into the trading. More snow is expected more generally in the Midwest by the end of the weekend. Futures are still supported by some variable yield estimates from producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 864, 862, and 854 January, and resistance is at 888, 893, and 900 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 302.00, and 299.00 December, and resistance is at 310.00, 313.00, and 316.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2760, and 2750 December, with resistance at 2850, 2870, and 2920 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports that showed big ending stocks levels for US Soybeans amid lost Chinese business. The harvest in the Prairies is now about over. The weekly charts show that futures remain in a trading range, but price action on the daily charts is weak and prices could move lower Less farm selling was reported, and commercials were scale down buyers. Palm Oil was sharply lower as ending stocks for the month are expected to show a dramatic increase. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend, but the down trend has stalled so far this week. Ideas continue that production was starting to increase again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 477.00 and 469.00 January. Support is at 478.00, 477.00, and 475.00 January, with resistance at 485.00, 489.00, and 492.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2070 January. Support is at 2080, 2050, and 2020 January, with resistance at 2120, 2150, and 2170 January.

DJ Indonesia Palm-Oil Supplies Edged Up in September — Market Talk
0911 GMT – Indonesia palm-oil supplies rose slightly in September as exports softened and production rose, according the Indonesian Palm Oil Association. Known as Gapki, the group said exports fell 3.3% from August to 3.2 million metric tons and stockpiles rose 0.2% to 4.6 million. Bursa Malaysia palm-oil futures have fallen this afternoon, currently trading down 0.7% at MYR2,107/metric ton. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Report in Tons:
Observation period : Oct
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Monday, 12 Nov
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.96 mil tonnes, Up 5.7%
Exports – 1.41 mil tonnes, Down 13.0%
Ending Stocks – 2.90 mil tonnes, Up 14.1%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.85 mil tonnes, Up 14.4%
Exports – 1.62 mil tonnes, Up 47.2%
Ending Stocks – 2.54 mil tonnes, Up 1.2%

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Nov 9
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Nov. 4, 2018. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2620.8 682.5 171.8 408.3 62.5 1493.7 275.7 120.5 7069.2
Week ago 2704.3 693.0 173.2 366.5 67.4 1477.0 295.5 116.7 7182.2
Year ago 2986.5 608.4 178.7 245.7 87.1 1299.0 295.5 36.7 6890.8
PRODUCER DELIVERIES – Note: Revision to wheat and canola are due to licensee
reporting error
This Week 350.6 91.9 45.2 129.1 15.4 378.8 48.9 17.0 1210.1
Week Ago 399.6 64.7 30.8 110.6 14.1 499.9 39.3 11.6 1326.2
To Date 5754.4 954.9 693.3 1019.9 81.2 5412.3 1024.9 175.9 16536.8
Year Ago 4896.4 912.4 725.4 767.1 108.1 5685.0 1201.8 120.4 15996.9
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 320.0 90.7 8.6 70.6 2.5 240.9 10.3 21.0 1261.3
Week Ago 342.4 105.6 0.0 18.9 1.0 298.2 34.7 6.5 1339.9
To Date 6359.8 980.3 137.4 505.5 24.8 2884.7 597.6 161.2 14255.4
Year Ago 5402.7 1278.6 44.7 416.6 49.8 3164.6 839.1 57.0 13671.7
EXPORTS
This Week 285.5 65.7 30.6 40.0 5.9 111.4 22.3 51.1 1014.4
Week Ago 249.2 101.0 31.0 72.1 0.6 316.5 51.7 0.0 1036.0
To Date 4990.5 841.5 537.5 466.5 54.7 2445.8 614.4 321.9 11721.8
Year Ago 4061.6 1036.7 503.9 432.9 71.0 2858.8 850.5 63.7 11192.5
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 70.8 38.5 5.1 20.1 1.1 186.0 6.5 16.6 469.9
Week Ago 49.5 9.8 6.0 20.7 0.8 146.2 4.0 16.5 320.9
To Date 1138.4 113.5 81.6 300.5 12.3 2260.7 56.1 315.3 4946.5
Year Ago 1544.7 215.7 69.3 340.0 13.0 2299.4 55.9 174.1 5497.0
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain or snow showers are possible this weekend and early next week. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 41 December 160 December 21 January 8 December
December 48 December 75 December 25 January
January 46 March 60 March 25 January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
November 200 November
December 200 January 1 December 57 December
January 1 January

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 8
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 455.00 up 1.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 491.80 dn 1.20
2 Can 478.80 dn 1.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 511.80 dn 1.20
2 Can 498.80 dn 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 500.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 500.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 532.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 567.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 502.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 502.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 535.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 570.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 477.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 380.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1,920.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 169.00 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1780)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,738 lots, or 3.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 3,430 3,430 3,430 0 0 28
Jan-19 3,470 3,493 3,451 3,475 3,467 3,467 0 98,650 227,648
Mar-19 3,498 3,498 3,498 3,498 3,509 3,498 -11 2 54
May-19 3,671 3,683 3,658 3,675 3,673 3,669 -4 12,624 51,992
Jul-19 3,686 3,686 3,686 3,686 3,648 3,686 38 2 6
Sep-19 3,713 3,734 3,713 3,731 3,726 3,724 -2 434 6,452
Nov-19 – – – 3,711 3,711 3,711 0 0 12
Jan-20 3,743 3,746 3,735 3,746 3,733 3,740 7 26 338
Corn
Turnover: 599,144 lots, or 11.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 1,877 1,911 1,877 1,880 1,856 1,880 24 714 12,580
Jan-19 1,898 1,916 1,895 1,916 1,893 1,908 15 404,448 732,520
Mar-19 1,920 1,930 1,920 1,929 1,918 1,925 7 3,642 9,970
May-19 1,992 2,011 1,992 2,010 1,996 2,004 8 163,158 706,482
Jul-19 2,029 2,037 2,029 2,037 2,027 2,034 7 1,180 22,804
Sep-19 2,067 2,076 2,066 2,076 2,067 2,071 4 26,002 189,160
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,509,880 lots, or 46.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 3,195 3,195 3,195 0 0 0
Dec-18 3,275 3,319 3,275 3,308 3,317 3,300 -17 6 218
Jan-19 3,147 3,157 3,120 3,142 3,158 3,139 -19 1,074,606 1,278,676
Mar-19 3,055 3,055 3,025 3,032 3,074 3,034 -40 201,616 104,660
May-19 2,785 2,787 2,766 2,773 2,784 2,776 -8 192,112 1,031,426
Jul-19 2,777 2,778 2,764 2,771 2,778 2,770 -8 582 7,284
Aug-19 2,797 2,797 2,775 2,787 2,804 2,788 -16 22 232
Sep-19 2,818 2,818 2,792 2,797 2,802 2,797 -5 40,936 259,256
Palm Oil
Turnover: 432,486 lots, or 19.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 4,890 4,890 4,890 0 0 0
Dec-18 – – – 4,768 4,768 4,768 0 0 8
Jan-19 4,468 4,472 4,390 4,412 4,486 4,426 -60 338,748 419,238
Feb-19 – – – 4,492 4,550 4,492 -58 0 8
Mar-19 – – – 4,574 4,634 4,574 -60 0 8
Apr-19 – – – 4,684 4,746 4,684 -62 0 18
May-19 4,736 4,742 4,646 4,672 4,756 4,688 -68 92,238 162,080
Jun-19 – – – 4,942 5,012 4,942 -70 0 52
Jul-19 4,832 4,832 4,832 4,832 4,920 4,832 -88 2 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,954 4,972 4,954 -18 0 4
Sep-19 4,848 4,856 4,770 4,792 4,868 4,818 -50 1,498 11,552
Oct-19 – – – 4,858 4,908 4,858 -50 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 437,042 lots, or 23.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 5,446 5,446 5,446 0 0 0
Dec-18 5,492 5,492 5,492 5,492 5,614 5,492 -122 2 18
Jan-19 5,472 5,480 5,410 5,452 5,496 5,442 -54 322,758 613,018
Mar-19 5,564 5,564 5,564 5,564 5,658 5,564 -94 2 120
May-19 5,580 5,584 5,520 5,544 5,594 5,550 -44 108,684 415,256
Jul-19 – – – 5,686 5,730 5,686 -44 0 22
Aug-19 – – – 5,758 5,802 5,758 -44 0 2
Sep-19 5,662 5,676 5,622 5,638 5,684 5,646 -38 5,596 31,812
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322