About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2018 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Oct. USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,711 14,576-14,806 14,778 14,604
Corn Yield 180.0 178.2-181.4 180.7 176.6
Harvested Acres 81.8 81.5-81.8 81.8 82.7
Soybean Production 4,676 4,637-4,706 4,690 4,411
Soybean Yield 53.0 52.5-53.5 53.1 49.3
Harvested Acres 88.3 87.9-88.4 88.3 89.5
Corn Harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 14,740 180.2 N/A 4,706 53.3 N/A
AgriSource 14,694 179.7 81.8 4,647 52.6 88.3
Agrivisor 14,677 179.5 81.8 4,665 52.8 88.3
Allendale 14,764 180.5 81.8 4,690 53.1 88.3
DC Analysis 14,693 179.7 81.8 4,698 53.2 88.3
Doane 14,718 180.0 81.8 4,670 53.0 88.2
EDF Man 14,724 180.0 81.8 4,680 53.0 88.3
Farm Futures 14,732 180.0 N/A 4,638 52.5 N/A
Futures International 14,718 180.0 81.7 4,664 52.8 88.3
Hueber Report 14,753 180.4 81.8 4,698 53.2 88.3
INTL FCStone 14,718 181.4 81.8 4,699 53.2 88.3
Sid Love Consulting 14,670 180.0 81.5 4,694 53.5 87.9
Northstar 14,576 178.2 81.8 4,662 52.8 88.3
Price Group 14,660 179.3 81.8 4,637 52.5 88.3
Prime Ag 14,806 181.0 81.8 4,690 53.1 88.3
RJO Brien 14,720 180.0 N/A 4,682 53.0 N/A
RMC 14,697 179.7 81.8 4,690 53.1 88.3
US Commodities 14,716 179.9 81.8 4,662 52.8 88.3
Vantage RM 14,750 180.4 81.8 4,690 53.1 88.4
Western Milling 14,618 178.7 81.8 4,680 53.0 88.3
Zaner 14,778 180.7 81.8 4,662 52.8 88.3

DJ U.S. November Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 1,781 1,566-2,105 1,813
Soybeans 900 832-984 885
Wheat 966 925-1,025 956
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,775 965 956
AgriSource 1,753 893 950
Agrivisor 1,714 860 956
Allendale 1,794 923 960
DC Analysis 1,773 933 944
Doane 1,725 900 995
EDF Man 1,784 875 981
Farm Futures 1,838 832 975
Futures Internationa 1,753 N/A 956
Hueber Report 1,789 890 950
INTL FCStone 2,105 984 1,013
Sid Love Consulting 1,705 889 956
Northstar 1,688 950 980
Price Group 1,695 833 956
Prime-Ag 1,841 885 956
RJO Brien 1,910 946 997
RMC 1,800 889 936
US Commodities 1,746 879 925
Vantage RM 1,835 910 956
Western Milling 1,566 858 1,025
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,813 897 966

DJ November World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 198.3 198.0-199.5 198.2
Soybeans 96.9 96.7-98.0 96.7
Wheat 275.0 274.5-276.0 274.9
2018-19
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 158.6 156.9-160.2 159.4
Soybeans 110.8 107.3-113.5 110.0
Wheat 259.3 257.4-261.5 260.2
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market N/A N/A N/A 158.3 111.9 260.8
Agrivisor 198.0 96.7 274.9 157.0 109.5 257.5
Allendale 198.2 96.7 274.9 158.9 111.7 260.0
Doane 198.5 97.0 276.0 158.0 110.0 258.0
EDF Man 198.2 96.7 274.9 159.0 110.0 260.0
Farm Futures N/A N/A N/A 160.0 111.1 261.5
Futures International N/A N/A N/A 157.5 113.5 261.2
Hueber Report 198.2 96.7 274.9 159.0 110.0 257.5
INTL FCStone 198.2 96.7 274.9 156.9 107.3 257.4
Northstar 199.5 98.0 274.9 158.0 112.0 260.2
Prime-Ag N/A N/A N/A 160.0 111.0 260.0
RMC 198.2 96.7 274.9 158.8 109.8 258.5
US Commodities 198.1 96.7 274.5 160.2 111.0 259.0
Western Milling 198.2 96.7 274.9 158.0 112.0 259.0
Zaner Ag Hedge N/A N/A N/A 160.1 111.6 258.7

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 5
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 01, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/01/2018 10/25/2018 11/02/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 220 686 122 4,992 16,006
CORN 1,254,057 698,619 456,819 9,898,827 5,552,575
FLAXSEED 0 0 122 194 4,111
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 1,294 3,893
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 22,797 3,833 53,812 159,744 499,898
SOYBEANS 1,229,042 1,329,705 2,493,657 8,578,243 14,869,106
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 327,192 393,939 305,796 8,941,815 11,447,963
Total 2,833,308 2,426,782 3,310,328 27,585,109 32,393,576
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ETHANOL November Nov. 07, 2018 238 Nov 05, 2018
SOYBEAN November Nov. 07, 2018 251 Nov 05, 2018

Crop Progress
Date 4-Nov 28-Oct 2017 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 94 91 96 97
Cotton Harvested 49 44 53 52
Corn Harvested 76 63 68 77
Soybeans Harvested 83 72 89 89
Sugarbeets Harvested 91 82 91 92
Sunflowers Harvested 52 33 68 61
Sorghum Mature 97 94 98 98
Sorghum Harvested 64 53 70 76
Peanuts Harvested 75 66 81 81
Winter Wheat Planted 84 78 90 90
Winter Wheat Emerged 70 63 74 77

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 19 16 32 26 7
Cotton Last Week 18 16 31 27 8
Cotton Last Year 5 10 30 41 14

Winter Wheat This Week 3 9 37 42 9
Winter Wheat Last Week 3 11 33 45 8
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 8 34 45 10

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat was mixed to start the week. Winter Wheat planting remains a little slow, and cold weather is coming. The cold might affect emergence if it persists. Most eyes are on the USDA reports on Thursday, but the reports should have little impact on Wheat markets. Production is already known, and USDA is not expected to make any major changes to the demand just yet. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production. It remains very dry in Australia. It is reported to be wet and cold in Siberia for the Spring Wheat harvest there, and planting conditions are reported to be dry near the Black Sea. The Spring Wheat harvest in Siberia has been delayed. The problem is that these production problems have not translated into new demand for US Wheat. Traders think it is just a matter of time before most world buyers turn to the US as the other major exporters would be out of Wheat for export. This is especially true for Russia, who has been exporting as much Wheat as possible for the last few months. Reports indicate that the government is increasingly concerned about tight internal supplies and higher prices and is thought to be ready to regulate exports in the near future. It has already made life more difficult for its exporters by making quality inspections more difficult to pass. US Wheat quality this year is good.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather,. Temperatures should be below normal this week and above normal this weekend. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 502, 497, and 495 December, with resistance at 519, 521, and 527 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 495, 485, and 480 December, with resistance at 511, 516, and 520 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 564, 540, and 528 December. Support is at 578, 571, and 569 December, and resistance is at 585, 589, and 590 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in range trading. Trading volumes were limited as producers are basically done with harvest and are doing other things. One thing they are not doing much of is selling Rice to mills or other merchants The chart patterns show that futures have held on every test of the lows set in 2016 and 2017 and that prices should start to move higher again. USDA will issue new production reports on Thursday, and production should hold at relatively strong levels. Good to excellent yields were reported in Texas and Louisiana, and good to very good yield reports are being made in Mississippi and Arkansas. USDA should continue to show very strong production, although production could be a little less than estimated last month due to harvest delays caused by too much rain and some yield losses resulting from the delays.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather, but precipitation is possible today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be below normal. . .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1062, 1045, and 1040 January, with resistance at 1083, 1088, and 1095 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher. Mexico bought more US Corno ver the weekend to provide new demand for the market. The harvest continues and farmers are wrapping up the Soybeans harvest in many areas of the Midwest and going after the Corn harvest. Rain continued to delay harvest progress last week, and conditions remain more variable with some rain and dry weather mixed together and cool temperatures. Snow is possible in Chicago at the end of this week. USDA will issue new production and supply and demand estimates on Thursday, and most expect yields and production to be slightly lower. It could be that USDA has overestimated production, but there appears to be a big crop either way. We expect USDA to cut yields by a couple of bushels per acre and to cut production due to variable yields reported in the Midwest and mostly in the western Midwest. The production losses might not be big enough to materially change price outlooks, but could be enough to help keep a floor under futures prices into the Winter. The weekly price charts suggest that prices can continue to move higher, but the fundamentals suggest that any upside moves should be limited, especially if prices try to move above $4.00 to $4.25 per bushel.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 378, 388, and 390 December. Support is at 365, 363, and 360 December, and resistance is at 374, 378, and 382 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 288, 285, and 282 December, and resistance is at 296, 300, and 307 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were slightly higher and products were lower. There was nothing much new on the trade front with China, but it appears that the two presidents will have a dinner meeting in Argentina at the end of the month. USDA will issue new production and supply and demand estimates on Thursday. USDA reported very good harvest progress last week as farmers try to get the Soybeans out of the fields before snow hits the Midwest. Some snow was reported in Wisconsin over the weekend, and more is expected more generally in the Midwest by the end of the week. Futures are still supported by disease reports as wet Soybeans were getting molded and were sprouting in some areas along with some variable yield estimates from producers. The reports indicated less production than expected, but it is still expected to be a huge crop, and the US might have trouble getting it moved to the point where ending stocks are small enough to make a difference in prices. Current ending stocks estimates are still more than ample. Futures appear to have made seasonal lows, but trade ideas are that upside potential is no more than $9.00 per bushel right now. The weekly Soybeans price charts are increasingly bullish, and a move above $9.00 per bushel could create a move to $9.50 and then $10.00 over time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 878, 865, and 862 January, and resistance is at 900, 905, and 911 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 316.00, 325.00, and 328.00 December. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 302.00 December, and resistance is at 316.00, 319.00, and 321.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2760, and 2750 December, with resistance at 2850, 2870, and 2910 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower again yesterday as the harvest in the Prairies is now about over. The weekly charts show that futures remain in a trading range, but price action on the daily charts is weak and prices could move lower through the rest of the week Farm selling was reported, and commercials were scale down buyers. Farmers are expected to continue harvest activities this week under good conditions. Production and quality ideas have been dropping due to the harvest delays and bad harvest weather until recently. Demand reports have been good from exporters as well as the domestic industry Palm Oil was closed The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend, but the down trend has stalled so far this week. Ideas continue that production was starting to increase again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 477.00 and 469.00 January. Support is at 481.00, 480.00, and 478.00 January, with resistance at 485.00, 489.00, and 492.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2110 and 2070 January. Support is at 2110, 2080, and 2050 January, with resistance at 2170, 2190, and 2210 January.

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Report in Tons:
Observation period : Oct
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Monday, 12 Nov
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.96 mil tonnes, Up 5.7%
Exports – 1.41 mil tonnes, Down 13.0%
Ending Stocks – 2.90 mil tonnes, Up 14.1%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.85 mil tonnes, Up 14.4%
Exports – 1.62 mil tonnes, Up 47.2%
Ending Stocks – 2.54 mil tonnes, Up 1.2%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some showers are possible early and late this week. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 42 December 160 December 12 January 10 December
December 47 December 75 December 20 January
January 45 March 65 March 23 January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
November 235 November
December 0 December 57 December
January 1 January

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 459.30 dn 4.11
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 492.40 dn 2.90
2 Can 479.40 dn 2.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 510.40 dn 2.90
2 Can 497.40 dn 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 98,644 lots, or 3.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 3,357 3,357 3,357 0 0 0
Jan-19 3,465 3,490 3,463 3,473 3,468 3,475 7 88,766 239,296
Mar-19 3,527 3,530 3,498 3,498 3,503 3,528 25 74 70
May-19 3,678 3,687 3,669 3,681 3,673 3,679 6 9,402 48,830
Jul-19 – – – 3,648 3,648 3,648 0 0 6
Sep-19 3,740 3,741 3,729 3,740 3,735 3,736 1 358 6,016
Nov-19 – – – 3,736 3,736 3,736 0 0 12
Jan-20 3,739 3,740 3,731 3,740 3,737 3,737 0 44 340
Corn
Turnover: 385,046 lots, or 7.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 1,849 1,853 1,842 1,842 1,847 1,848 1 2,060 19,662
Jan-19 1,890 1,893 1,881 1,889 1,888 1,887 -1 209,662 699,680
Mar-19 1,920 1,920 1,914 1,915 1,918 1,915 -3 16,546 9,832
May-19 1,990 1,993 1,986 1,993 1,987 1,990 3 109,048 680,958
Jul-19 2,020 2,026 2,019 2,023 2,022 2,022 0 6,360 23,062
Sep-19 2,068 2,069 2,058 2,062 2,063 2,061 -2 41,370 160,720
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,884,822 lots, or 58.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 3,194 3,197 3,194 3,197 3,101 3,195 94 4 0
Dec-18 3,296 3,316 3,282 3,290 3,250 3,302 52 180 830
Jan-19 3,150 3,184 3,149 3,158 3,115 3,168 53 1,420,634 1,342,028
Mar-19 3,051 3,095 3,051 3,071 3,034 3,080 46 224,240 95,210
May-19 2,805 2,822 2,805 2,808 2,802 2,813 11 206,336 997,720
Jul-19 2,798 2,805 2,787 2,793 2,792 2,797 5 1,114 7,192
Aug-19 2,806 2,817 2,803 2,803 2,794 2,810 16 24 228
Sep-19 2,816 2,819 2,806 2,812 2,804 2,813 9 32,290 246,630
Palm Oil
Turnover: 235,382 lots, or 10.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 4,890 4,890 4,890 0 0 0
Dec-18 – – – 4,768 4,768 4,768 0 0 8
Jan-19 4,550 4,564 4,526 4,530 4,566 4,544 -22 193,084 406,512
Feb-19 – – – 4,580 4,602 4,580 -22 0 8
Mar-19 – – – 4,696 4,696 4,696 0 0 8
Apr-19 – – – 4,776 4,798 4,776 -22 0 18
May-19 4,798 4,808 4,784 4,792 4,808 4,794 -14 41,618 146,754
Jun-19 – – – 5,012 5,012 5,012 0 0 52
Jul-19 – – – 4,958 4,972 4,958 -14 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,972 4,972 4,972 0 0 4
Sep-19 4,912 4,920 4,898 4,904 4,926 4,910 -16 680 10,964
Oct-19 – – – 4,950 4,966 4,950 -16 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 285,974 lots, or 15.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 5,446 5,446 5,446 0 0 0
Dec-18 – – – 5,614 5,614 5,614 0 0 18
Jan-19 5,534 5,550 5,512 5,536 5,520 5,534 14 230,538 639,252
Mar-19 – – – 5,574 5,560 5,574 14 0 112
May-19 5,634 5,650 5,620 5,640 5,630 5,634 4 52,822 389,324
Jul-19 – – – 5,770 5,766 5,770 4 0 22
Aug-19 – – – 5,842 5,838 5,842 4 0 2
Sep-19 5,730 5,752 5,726 5,742 5,736 5,742 6 2,614 27,900
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322