While attending a gathering of officials from both the private and public sectors of US agriculture, various speakers presented the idea of a further modest expansion of the US livestock, poultry and dairy numbers in to mid-2019 and beyond. A robust US and World economy along with inexpensive US feed costs were the main reasons for the speakers outlook for the current 2-3% higher numbers to continue into 2019. Despite heighten trade tensions between the US and China, US meat exports have held together overall with the US-Mexico trade accord a positive to pork, poultry and dairy sectors of US agriculture if it signed quickly. African Swine Fever is still an unknown on its impact on overseas pork demand, but the US is working hard to keep it contained in its current Asian & European areas.
The current modest profit margins across US animal feeding industries likely makes the broiler and turkey outlooks the most tenuous because their shorter breeding and growing periods and reduced facility costs. With last year’s drought in the Southern Plains virtually eliminated, US feeder cattle placements will likely become more seasonal and not forced into feedlots like last year making for a more orderly beef marketings in the coming year. However, larger competing meat supplies likely will limit any abnormal beef price rallies other than seasonal price strength during the upcoming year.
Given the current livestock outlooks, the US feed demand for corn, soybean meal and DDGs will also increase modestly during the 2019/20 crop year.Questions? Ask Jerry Gidel today at 312-264-4369