Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton was a little lower as traders got ready for the USDA reports that will be released later today. Hurricane Michael moved into the Gulf of Mexico and moved into production areas in Georgia and much of the rest of the Southeast yesterday. Some significant damage to crops is possible as bolls are open, but the system is moving fast and might not spend enough time in Cotton areas to cause really extensive damage. Some rains are possible in Texas and the rest of the Great Plains this week, but the rains should not cause any damage. The harvest might be a little slower in affected areas this week. US export demand has been poor for the last few weeks, and the lack of demand has hurt prices. Export demand needs to improve soon for prices to rally. The trade in India remains optimistic that a good crop is coming and that they will not need to import very much Cotton this year. China has been active in India buying and will buy as much as possible there to make up for production losses inside of China. Conditions have also improved in Pakistan as rains have been reported.
Overnight News: Dry in the Delta this week, then more rain about Sunday. The Southeast will get lots of rain and winds from Michael today, then dry weather this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather this week rains this weekend. Drier again early next week. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 73.19 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 27,658 bales, from 27,658 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7620, 7570, and 7540 December, with resistance of 7760, 7790, and 7840 December.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Oct 8 2018 12:35:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2018-19 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Oct. 11. Figures are in millions of bales.
2018-19:| Avg | Low | High | Sept.
US Production | 19.52| 19.10| 19.80| 19.68
US Exports | 15.49| 15.00| 15.70| 15.70
US End Stocks | 4.65| 4.30| 5.10| 4.70
World Production | 121.56| 121.00| 122.00| 121.97
World Consumption | 127.56| 127.00| 128.00| 127.94
World End Stocks | 77.58| 76.90| 78.00| 77.46
| | | End
Estimates: | Production | Exports |Stocks | Production | Consumption |Stocks
Doane | 19.80| 15.70| 4.80| 122.00| 127.50| 78.00
Love | | | | | |
Consulting | 19.10| 15.70| 4.30| 121.50| 128.00| 77.30
Price Futures| | | | | |
Group | 19.55| 15.70| 4.50| 122.00| 128.00| 77.25
Rabobank | 19.50| 15.50| 4.80| 121.00| 127.00| 78.00
Rose | | | | | |
Commoditiy | | | | | |
Group | 19.25| 15.00| 4.47| 121.00| 127.50| 76.90
Texas A&M; | | | | | |
Robinson | 19.48| 15.60| 4.60| 121.97| 127.94| 77.46
Varner Bros. | 19.75| 15.25| 5.10| 121.50| 127.00| 78.00
Wedbush | | | | | |
Securities | 19.75| 15.50| 4.60| 121.50| 127.50| 77.75
General Comments: FCOJ was mixed yesterday in quiet trading and as the trade gets ready for the USDA crop reports that will be released later today. No changes are expected to the old crop estimate, but the new crop estimate could show a sharp recovery in production if one is released. Hurricane Michael is moving north and will hit the US, but is expected to have just a glancing blow in citrus areas of Florida. Good weather continues in Florida and as prospects for a much improved crop from a year ago continue. Chart trends are down as futures stayed below some important resistance on the weekly charts. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used when needed, and producers expect a good crop.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or light showers, with best amounts and coverage expected on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 141.00 and 136.00 November. Support is at 140.00, 138.00, and 135.00 November, with resistance at 147.00, 150.00, and 153.00 November.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Oct 8 2018 12:25:00
Florida Orange Production Survey Before USDA’s Citrus Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a
Bloomberg News survey of five analysts about the 2018-19 Florida
orange crop. The USDA will release its first estimate for the
new season at noon in Washington on Oct. 11. Figures are in
millions of 90-lb boxes.
Summary of Results: | Output
Survey Avg | 66.5
Survey Range | 55-87.6
USDA 2017-18 Crop | 44.95
Price Futures Group | 57.0
Optionsellers.com | 56.0
Consultant Steger | 77.0
Ganes Consulting | 87.6
Infinity Trading | 55.0
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday, but still held the recent rally as producers are not selling and as the Brazilian Real remains stronger. It seems that longs and shorts are liquidating positions in December Contracts for now. Futures now have the potential to move closer to the 120.00 December area, but could stage a short-term correction lower first. Ideas of strong production in Brazil and Vietnam have been keeping futures under selling pressure. Higher US interest rates and inflation worries are causing buying in commodities in general. Vietnam is getting close to its next harvest, and ideas are that producers there need to sell more of the previous crop to create new storage space. Producers in both countries are not selling as Brazil producers wait for the next round of elections to decide a final winner and wait for the Real to lose against the US Dollar.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.414 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 109.63 ct/lb. Brazil will get daily chances for scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to mostly above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 115.00 and 121.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 109.00, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 116.00, 119.00 and 123.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1720, 1730, and 1740 November.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher yesterday. The Brazilian Real was a little lower against the US Dollar to provide some selling in New York, but tight supplies in Europe kept London firm. London has led the rally as crops in much of Europe and into Russia have been poor this year. Both markets are showing that medium term lows have been made on the weekly charts. Sugar was supported by reduced selling in Brazil due to the presidential elections that were held over the weekend and ideas of increasing inflation in the US. The right-wing candidate won and will face the workers party candidate in the next round of elections in the near future. The strength of the right-wing candidate has been very supportive for the Brazilian Real. Dry conditions continue in the EU and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine and have improved in Brazil. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India.
Overnight News: Brazil will get daily chances for scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1350 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 346.00, 342.00, and 339.00 December, and resistance is at 359.00, 362.00, and 367.00 December.
General Comments Futures closed lower as the new main crop harvest comes to market in West Africa. The harvest has been slow in some areas due to too much rain. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak, but there are some disease concerns for West Africa as a lot of humid air has promoted some concerns that Black Pod Disease could spread. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are high. Ghana and Nigeria are expecting very good crops this year as well. Ghana and Ivory Coast are hoping to set a joint minimum Price in an effort to ensure at least some return for their producers as prices now are viewed as cheap. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa, with heavy amounts of precipitation possible. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.066 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2000, and 1980 December, with resistance at 2140, 2160, and 2190 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1500, and 1460 December, with resistance at 1580, 1600, and 1630 December.