About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was lower as Hurricane Michael moved into the Gulf of Mexico and appears aimed for production áreas in Georgia and much of the rest of the Southeast later this week. Some sgnificant damage to crops is posible as bolls are open, but the system is moving fast and might not spend enough time in Cotton áreas to cause really extensive damage. Some rains are possible in Texas and the rest of the Great Plains this week, but the rains should not cause any damage. The harvest might be a little slower in affected areas this week. US export demand has been poor for the last few weeks, and the lack of demand has hurt prices. Export demand needs to improve soon for prices to rally. The trade in India remains optimistic that a good crop is coming and that they will not need to import very much Cotton this year. China has been active in India buying and will buy as much as possible there to make up for production losses inside of China. Conditions have also improved in Pakistan as rains have been reported.
Overnight News: Dry in the Delta after today, then more rain about Sunday. The Southeast will get lots of rain and winds from Michael, then dry weather this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have mosty dry weather this week rains this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 73.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 27,833 ba1es, from 28,062 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7570, 7540, and 7500 December, with resistance of 7790, 7840, and 7930 December.

Crop Progress
Date 7-Oct 30-Sep 2017 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 78 67 71 74
Cotton Harvested 25 19 24 18
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 6 19 33 32 10
Cotton Last Week 6 19 33 32 10
Cotton Last Year 8 7 25 42 18

Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Oct 8 2018 12:35:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2018-19 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Oct. 11. Figures are in millions of bales.
*T
================================================================
|———Survey Results———|USDA
2018-19:| Avg | Low | High | Sept.
================================================================
US Production | 19.52| 19.10| 19.80| 19.68
US Exports | 15.49| 15.00| 15.70| 15.70
US End Stocks | 4.65| 4.30| 5.10| 4.70
World Production | 121.56| 121.00| 122.00| 121.97
World Consumption | 127.56| 127.00| 128.00| 127.94
World End Stocks | 77.58| 76.90| 78.00| 77.46
================================================================================
Analyst |————-U.S.————–|World
| | | End | | | End
Estimates: | Production | Exports |Stocks | Production | Consumption |Stocks
================================================================================
Doane | 19.80| 15.70| 4.80| 122.00| 127.50| 78.00
Love | | | | | |
Consulting | 19.10| 15.70| 4.30| 121.50| 128.00| 77.30
Price Futures| | | | | |
Group | 19.55| 15.70| 4.50| 122.00| 128.00| 77.25
Rabobank | 19.50| 15.50| 4.80| 121.00| 127.00| 78.00
Rose | | | | | |
Commoditiy | | | | | |
Group | 19.25| 15.00| 4.47| 121.00| 127.50| 76.90
Texas A&M; | | | | | |
Robinson | 19.48| 15.60| 4.60| 121.97| 127.94| 77.46
Varner Bros. | 19.75| 15.25| 5.10| 121.50| 127.00| 78.00
Wedbush | | | | | |
Securities | 19.75| 15.50| 4.60| 121.50| 127.50| 77.75

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower again yesterday in quiet trading and as the trade gets ready for the USDA crop reports on Thursday. No changes are expected to the old crop estimate, but the new crop estimate could show a sharp recovery in production if one is released. Hurricane Michael is moving north and will hit the US, but is expected to have just a glancing blow in citrus áreas of Florida. Good weather continues in Florida and as prospects for a much improved crop from a year ago continue. Chart trends are down as futures stayed below some important resistance on the weekly charts. Florida producers are seeing good sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used when needed, and producers expect a good crop.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or light showers, with best amounts and coverage expected on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperaturas.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 141.00 and 136.00 November. Support is at 140.00, 138.00, and 135.00 November, with resistance at 147.00, 150.00, and 153.00 November.

Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Oct 8 2018 12:25:00
Florida Orange Production Survey Before USDA’s Citrus Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a
Bloomberg News survey of five analysts about the 2018-19 Florida
orange crop. The USDA will release its first estimate for the
new season at noon in Washington on Oct. 11. Figures are in
millions of 90-lb boxes.
*T
================================================================
Summary of Results: | Output
================================================================
Survey Avg | 66.5
Survey Range | 55-87.6
USDA 2017-18 Crop | 44.95
================================================================
Analyst Estimates:
================================================================ |
Price Futures Group | 57.0
Optionsellers.com | 56.0
Consultant Steger | 77.0
Ganes Consulting | 87.6
Infinity Trading | 55.0

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday and held the recent rally as producers are not selling and as the Brazilian Real remains stronger. Futures now have the potential to move closer to the 120.00 December area. Support came from the rally in the Brazilian Real as the right wing candidate took the first round of presidential elections in Brazil in elections held Sunday. A second round will be held soon between the two top finishers. In second place was the workers party candidate. Ideas of strong production in Brazil and Vietnam have been keeping futures under selling pressure. Higher US interest rates and inflation worries are causing buying in commodities in general. Vietnam is getting close to its next harvest, and ideas are that producers there need to sell more of the previous crop to create new storage space. Producers in both countries are not selling as Brazil producers wait for the next round of elections to decide a final winner and wait for the Real to lose against the US Dollar.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.413 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 110.02 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to mostly above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 115.00 and 121.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 109.19, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 116.00, 119.00 and 123.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1710, 1730, and 1740 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday as the trade reacted to a stroner Brazilian Real and ideas that more Sugarcane is being diverted to ethanol. London has led the rally as crops in much of Europe and into Ruddia have been poor this year. Both markets are showing that medium term lows have been made on the weekly charts. Sugar was supported by reduced selling in Brazil due to the presidential elections that were held over the weekend and ideas of increasing inflation in the US. The right wing candidate won and will face the workers party candidate in the next round of elections in the near future. The strength of the right wing candidate has been very supportive for the Brailian Real. Dry conditions continue in the EU and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine and have improved in Brazil. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1350 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 346.00, 342.00, and 339.00 December, and resistance is at 354.00, 358.00, and 362.00 December.

DJ USDA: Australia Sugar Exports to Rise Modestly — Market Talk
0331 GMT – Australia’s sugar exports are slated to rise 2.6% this season, says the USDA, saying that newly signed free-trade agreements with Peru and Indonesia will likely provide opportunities for Oz sugar growers. The agency adds that current weather conditions in Australia are sufficient for improved yields as adverse seasonal events like cyclones and flooding have not occurred. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

COCOA
General Comments Futures closed higher on speculative and perhaps some commercial buying as the new main crop harvest comes to market in West Africa. The harvest has been slow in some areas due to too much rain. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak, but there are some disease concerns for West Africa as a lot of humid air has promoted some concerns that Black Pod Disease could spread. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are high. Ghana and Nigeria are expecting very good crops this year as well. Ghana and Ivory Coast are hoping to set a joint minimum Price in an effort to ensure at least some return for their producers as prices now are viewed as cheap. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa, with heavy amounts of precipitation possible. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.090 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2000, and 1980 December, with resistance at 2140, 2160, and 2190 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1500, and 1460 December, with resistance at 1600, 1630, and 1670 December.

Thanks,

Jack Scoville

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322