Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton was higher as Hurricane Michael moved into the Gulf of Mexico and appears aimed for production areas in Georgia and much of the rest of the Southeast later this week. Some damage to crops is possible as bolls are open. Some rains are possible in Texas and the rest of the Great Plains this week, but the rains should not cause any damage. The harvest might be a little slower in affected areas this week. US export demand has been poor for the last few weeks, and the lack of demand has hurt prices. Export demand needs to improve soon for prices to rally. The trade in India remains optimistic that a good crop is coming and that they will not need to import very much Cotton this year. China has been active in India buying and will buy as much as possible there to make up for production losses inside of China. Conditions have also improved in Pakistan as rains have been reported. Chart trends turned mixed yesterday.
Overnight News: Dry in the Delta and in the Southeast until Michael shows up tomorrow. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have rains this week. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 72.49 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 28,062 bales, from 28,062 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7680, 7570, and 7540 December, with resistance of 7790, 7840, and 7930 December.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Oct 8 2018 12:35:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2018-19 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Oct. 11. Figures are in millions of bales.
2018-19:| Avg | Low | High | Sept.
US Production | 19.52| 19.10| 19.80| 19.68
US Exports | 15.49| 15.00| 15.70| 15.70
US End Stocks | 4.65| 4.30| 5.10| 4.70
World Production | 121.56| 121.00| 122.00| 121.97
World Consumption | 127.56| 127.00| 128.00| 127.94
World End Stocks | 77.58| 76.90| 78.00| 77.46
| | | End
Estimates: | Production | Exports |Stocks | Production | Consumption |Stocks
Doane | 19.80| 15.70| 4.80| 122.00| 127.50| 78.00
Love | | | | | |
Consulting | 19.10| 15.70| 4.30| 121.50| 128.00| 77.30
Price Futures| | | | | |
Group | 19.55| 15.70| 4.50| 122.00| 128.00| 77.25
Rabobank | 19.50| 15.50| 4.80| 121.00| 127.00| 78.00
Rose | | | | | |
Commoditiy | | | | | |
Group | 19.25| 15.00| 4.47| 121.00| 127.50| 76.90
Texas A&M; | | | | | |
Robinson | 19.48| 15.60| 4.60| 121.97| 127.94| 77.46
Varner Bros. | 19.75| 15.25| 5.10| 121.50| 127.00| 78.00
Wedbush | | | | | |
Securities | 19.75| 15.50| 4.60| 121.50| 127.50| 77.75
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower again yesterday in quiet trading and as the trade gets ready for the USDA crop reports on Thursday. No changes are expected to the old crop estimate, but the new crop estimate could show a sharp recovery in production if one is released. Good weather continues in Florida and as prospects for a much improved crop from a year ago continue. Chart trends are down as futures stayed below some important resistance on the weekly charts. Overall growing conditions in Florida are good to very good, and there is no storm development in the Atlantic at this time. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used when needed, and producers expect a good crop.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or light showers, with best amounts and coverage expected on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 141.00 and 136.00 November. Support is at 144.00, 143.00, and 140.00 November, with resistance at 147.00, 150.00, and 153.00 November.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Oct 8 2018 12:25:00
Florida Orange Production Survey Before USDA’s Citrus Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a
Bloomberg News survey of five analysts about the 2018-19 Florida
orange crop. The USDA will release its first estimate for the
new season at noon in Washington on Oct. 11. Figures are in
millions of 90-lb boxes.
Summary of Results: | Output
Survey Avg | 66.5
Survey Range | 55-87.6
USDA 2017-18 Crop | 44.95
Price Futures Group | 57.0
Optionsellers.com | 56.0
Consultant Steger | 77.0
Ganes Consulting | 87.6
Infinity Trading | 55.0
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday and broke some important resistance areas near 110.00 December. Futures now have the potential to move closer to the 120.00 December area. Support came from the rally in the Brazilian Real as the right-wing candidate took the first round of presidential elections in Brazil. A second round will be held soon between the two top finishers. In second place was the workers party candidate. Ideas of strong production in Brazil and Vietnam have been keeping futures under selling pressure. Higher US interest rates and inflation worries are causing buying in commodities in general. Vietnam is getting close to its next harvest, and ideas are that producers there need to sell more of the previous crop to create new storage space. Producers in both countries are not selling.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.410 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 105.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to mostly above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 115.00 and 121.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 109.19, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 113.00, 116.00 and 119.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1600 November, and resistance is at 1710, 1730, and 1740 November.
DJ ICO Coffee Index Drops Again in September
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator price in September 2018 fell to its lowest since October 2006.
The ICO composite indicator dropped to 98.17 U.S. cents a pound from 102.41 U.S. cents in August.
Prices for all groups of arabica coffee fell for the fourth consecutive month. Among arabica types, Brazilian naturals plunged 4.4%, with other mild down 3.2% and Colombian mild prices decreasing 3.3%. Robusta beans also dropped heavily, falling 5%.
The arbitrage between low-grade robusta and its higher-quality peer dropped 3.8%, while intraday volatility climbed to 5.4%, the report said.
Total exports in August rose 6.3% to 11.1 million bags.
World production in 2017-18 is estimated at 164.8 million bags, 5.7% higher than last year, with arabica output expected up 2.2% at 101.82 million bags, the report said. Robusta production grew 11.7% to 62.99 million bags.
London-traded robusta was last up 0.2% at $1,687 a ton, and arabica was up 0.4% at $1.12 a pound.
General Comments: New York closed higher. London was sharply higher as well. Both markets are showing that medium term lows have been made on the weekly charts. Sugar was supported by reduced selling in Brazil due to the presidential elections that were held over the weekend and ideas of increasing inflation in the US. The right-wing candidate won and will face the workers party candidate in the next round of elections in the near future. The strength of the right-wing candidate has been very supportive for the Brazilian Real. Ideas of big world production are bearish and have been the reason for the selling. Just about everyone is looking for a significant production well above any demand potential. Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India. Brazil producers are worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest, and the market still talks about less production there this year. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas. Recent rains in parts of Ukraine have continued to improve production prospects there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get some showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1250, 1230, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1350 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 342.00, 339.00, and 334.00 December, and resistance is at 345400, 358.00, and 362.00 December.
General Comments Futures closed higher on speculative and perhaps some commercial buying as the new main crop harvest comes to market in West Africa. Trends remain mostly down on the daily and weekly charts. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak, but there are some disease concerns for West Africa as a lot of humid air has promoted some concerns that Black Pod Disease could spread. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are high. Ghana and Nigeria are expecting very good crops this year as well. Ghana and Ivory Coast are hoping to set a joint minimum Price in an effort to ensure at least some return for their producers as prices now are viewed as cheap. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa, with heavy amounts of precipitation possible. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.103 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1950 December, with resistance at 2100, 2140, and 2160 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1500, 1460, and 1450 December, with resistance at 1560, 1570, and 1600 December.