About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 10, 2018 34 Oct 04, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 10, 2018 395 Oct 08, 2018

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2018 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)

Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,851 14,700-14,969 14,827 14,604
Corn Yield 181.8 180.6-183.0 181.3 176.6
Harvested Acres 81.7 81.4-81.9 81.8 82.7
Soybean Production 4,733 4,623-4,890 4,693 4,392
Soybean Yield 53.4 52.0-55.0 52.8 49.1
Harvested Acres 88.7 88.2-88.9 88.9 89.5
Corn Soybean
Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 14,908 182.3 81.8 4,756 53.5 88.9
AgriSource 14,842 181.7 81.7 4,746 53.5 88.7
Agrivisor 14,800 181.0 81.8 4,714 53.2 88.6
Allendale 14,850 181.6 81.8 4,692 53.1 88.4
DC Analysis 14,845 181.5 81.8 4,711 53.3 88.4
Doane 14,927 182.5 81.8 4,718 53.5 88.2
EDF Man 14,969 183.0 81.8 4,800 54.0 88.9
Farm Futures 14,905 182.0 81.9 4,702 53.0 88.7
Hueber Report 14,700 180.6 81.4 4,623 52.0 88.9
INTL FCStone 14,939 182.7 81.8 4,779 54.0 88.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,833 182.0 81.5 4,729 53.5 88.4
North Star Commodity 14,802 181.0 81.8 4,747 53.4 88.9
Price Group 14,745 180.9 81.5 4,688 53.0 88.5
Prime Ag 14,888 182.0 81.8 4,756 53.5 88.9
RJO Brien 14,822 182.0 N/A 4,727 53.2 N/A
RMC 14,847 181.5 81.8 4,890 55.0 88.9
US Commodities 14,854 181.6 81.8 4,721 53.1 88.9
Vantage RM 14,928 182.5 81.8 4,747 53.4 88.9
Western Milling 14,806 181.0 81.8 4,712 53.0 88.9
Zaner 14,817 181.8 81.5 4,710 53.1 88.7

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 1,932 1,774-2,352 1,774
Soybeans 860 442-975 845
Wheat 1,027 895-2,379 935
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,825 885 945
AgriSource 1,927 942 945
Agrivisor 1,935 492 942
Allendale 1,908 934 952
DC Analysis 1,900 901 915
Doane 2,000 870 1000
EDF Man 1,820 910 960
Farm Futures 1,960 823 997
Hueber Report 1,774 778 935
INTL FCStone 2,352 935 990
Sid Love Consulting 1,918 892 943
North Star Commodity 1,835 950 950
Price Group 1,855 883 922
Prime-Ag 1,923 941 962
RJO Brien 2,047 975 987
RMC 2,150 442 2,379
US Commodities 1,914 896 895
Vantage RM 1,920 960 950
Western Milling 1,804 890 1,020
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,872 895 958

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18 Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 195.0 192.0-197.5 194.2
Soybeans 95.4 94.7-97.3 94.7
Wheat 274.5 273.0-276.0 274.4
2018-19
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 159.2 156.0-165.9 157.0
Soybeans 109.4 105.5-113.0 108.3
Wheat 261.1 259.0-263.7 261.3
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 196.2 95.5 N/A 158.9 109.8 260.4
Agrivisor N/A N/A N/A 156.0 108.5 260.0
Allendale 197.1 95.0 274.4 159.2 110.1 261.9
Doane 197.5 96.0 275.0 164.0 111.0 262.0
EDF Man 195.0 96.0 276.0 160.0 110.0 263.0
Farm Futures 192.0 95.0 273.0 158.0 113.0 260.0
Hueber Report 194.2 94.7 274.4 156.0 108.0 259.0
INTL FCStone 193.4 95.2 275.0 165.9 105.5 263.7
North Star Comm 195.0 95.2 275.0 158.5 109.5 261.0
Prime-Ag N/A N/A N/A 160.0 110.0 260.0
RMC 194.3 94.8 274.3 157.1 108.4 261.3
US Commodities 195.0 95.3 274.1 158.1 108.8 260.3
Western Milling 195.0 95.0 274.0 158.0 109.0 260.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 195.9 97.3 274.4 159.8 110.1 263.4

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat was lower as the market started to look ahead to the next round of USDA reports on Thursday. The reports last month were bearish for prices, and traders are worried about bearish data again this week. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production. It remains very dry in Australia, and yield and production estimates continue to drop well below those estimated by USDA. It is reported to be wet and cold in Siberia, but planting conditions are reported to be improved near the Black Sea. Harvest has been difficult in parts of the Canadian Prairies due to snow and cold weather. Bullish traders think it is just a matter of time before world buyers turn to the US as the other major exporters would be out of Wheat for export, but for now the buyers are looking everywhere they can for other origins and are trying to avoid US Wheat. The weather in the US is improved for planting the next Winter Wheat crop as much of the Great Plains has seen rains in the last couple of weeks. More rain is possible later this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see showers most of the week, then drier weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal. Bangladesh bought 120,000 tons of US HRS Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 510, 505, and 500 December, with resistance at 525, 527, and 531 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 507, 499, and 493 December, with resistance at 520, 529, and 531 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 605, 629, and 654 December. Support is at 586, 584, and 582 December, and resistance is at 595, 599, and 600 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday on what appeared to be follow through fund short covering. The buying is appearing despite ideas that USDA will increase US production estimates on Thursday. Futures rallied more than $1.00 per cwt. last week. Farmers think prices are too cheap and are still concentrating on harvesting in most areas. The second crop harvest in Texas and Louisiana will be underway soon. Good to excellent yields have been reported in Texas and Louisiana so far, and good to very good yield reports are being heard in Mississippi and Arkansas. Cash prices are somewhat weaker as mills and elevators fill up. Milling yields have been acceptable to very good. Export demand has been good, and was especially strong last week as futures moved lower. Good export demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News: The Delta should see drier weather today, then showers and storms for the rest of the week. Temperatures should be near normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1200 November. Support is at 1065, 1050, and 1042 November, with resistance at 1095, 1103, and 1119 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower after trading both sides of unchanged. Chart patterns remain bullish and point to moves to about 378 December and then just under 400 December over time. The harvest is now delayed due to a lot of rain seen recently in the Midwest. More rain is likely over the first half of the week, then drier weather could return. Harvest data as reported by producers still suggest that the crop can be another very big one, but that USDA might be a little high in its yield estimates. Harvest yield reports appear stronger in the eastern belt than to the west. It has been a warm Summer as average temperatures have generally been a few degrees above long-term averages. The warm temperatures have pushed maturity forward by up to two weeks or so. Rain patterns have been very tropical, with some areas getting way too much rain and others staying relatively dry. US Corn export sales remain very strong and were over 1.5 million tons last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 373 December. Support is at 363, 360, and 355 December, and resistance is at 370, 372, and 376 December. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 279, 270, and 265 December, and resistance is at 287, 294, and 297 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher and product were lower The strength yesterday came as big rains in the Midwest have interrupted the harvest and created quality concerns. Some damage from shattered beans or sprouting beans is possible, and other problems could come soon. Futures are also rallying as export demand has been much stronger than anticipated despite the trade war with China. The USDA export sales reports continue to show very good demand for US Soybeans. The trade war with the Chinese continues, but other importers have been buying in the US in a big way as US prices are very cheap. They are cheaper than South American prices even with the 25% tariffs. Traders hope this trend continues, and traders also think that China will eventually need to find a way to buy US Soybeans at a reduced rate as they can’t buy enough in South America and other areas to cover their needs. Farmers are actively planting in Brazil and overall planting progress is much ahead of normal.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 872 and 879 November. Support is at 861, 852, and 843 November, and resistance is at 881, 884, and 894 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 315.00, 310.00, and 308.00 December, and resistance is at 324.00, 327.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3010 December. Support is at 2910, 2900, and 2840 December, with resistance at 3000, 3040, and 3080 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was closed for a holiday. Harvest progress has remained slow due to uneven weather and harvest conditions. Stronger Soybean Oil prices supported Canola prices. The weaker Canadian Dollar supported prices. The Canola harvest is active, but producers are not selling as overall progress is at least a week behind. Reports indicate slow progress in the western growing areas due to cold and wet weather. Snow is falling in some areas, and the harvest in these areas is stopped. Quality and yield losses are expected in these areas Palm Oil was higher on outside markets and a weaker Ringgit. Ideas continue that production was starting to increase again. Export demand is much improved last month, and there is now talk that ending stocks will not increase despite increased production. Demand ideas are strong for this month as well. The charts show that December filled a small gap on the daily charts. Ideas are that here ill be plenty of production for any demand. Chart trends remain down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 506.00 November. Support is at 497.00, 494.00, and 490.00 November, with resistance at 502.00, 505.00, and 508.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2230 and 2290 December. Support is at 2190, 2150, and 2140 December, with resistance at 2210, 2230, and 2250 December.

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Sep
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Wednesday, 10 Oct
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.86 mil tonnes, Up 14.7%
Exports – 1.65 mil tonnes, Up 50.0%
Ending Stocks – 2.47 mil tonnes, Down 0.7%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.62 mil tonnes, Up 7.9%
Exports – 1.10 mil tonnes, Down 8.1%
Ending Stocks – 2.49 mil tonnes, Up 12.4%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms today and tomorrow and aain this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly below normal after a very warm day today.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 43 December 120 December 50 December 5 November 14 December
November 48 December 60 December 13 November
December 53 December 70 December 17 January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
October 68 December
November 285 November 68 December
December 280 January 88 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 476.00 dn 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 511.30 up 2.30
2 Can 498.30 up 2.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 526.30 dn 2.70
2 Can 513.30 dn 2.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 550.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 550.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 560.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 585.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Oct 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 552.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 562.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 587.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 522.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 455.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,130 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 200 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1547)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 259,752 lots, or 10.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 3,737 3,789 3,737 3,765 3,728 3,762 34 10 292
Jan-19 3,826 3,879 3,807 3,826 3,800 3,844 44 240,470 267,328
Mar-19 3,836 3,898 3,822 3,838 3,798 3,842 44 48 68
May-19 3,890 3,958 3,880 3,899 3,879 3,917 38 17,872 31,076
Jul-19 – – – 3,901 3,864 3,901 37 0 6
Sep-19 3,910 3,965 3,900 3,909 3,894 3,929 35 1,296 2,360
Nov-19 3,955 3,955 3,950 3,950 3,785 3,952 167 4 12
Jan-20 3,926 3,990 3,926 3,953 3,933 3,970 37 52 90
Corn
Turnover: 502,692 lots, or 9.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 1,840 1,840 1,826 1,828 1,827 1,831 4 9,520 34,972
Jan-19 1,864 1,869 1,859 1,864 1,856 1,863 7 319,186 816,160
Mar-19 1,902 1,904 1,895 1,898 1,895 1,897 2 12,270 7,644
May-19 1,970 1,976 1,965 1,968 1,962 1,970 8 121,246 444,370
Jul-19 2,006 2,014 2,001 2,003 2,002 2,006 4 1,424 16,248
Sep-19 2,050 2,054 2,040 2,042 2,039 2,045 6 39,046 82,718
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,320,088 lots, or 11.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 3,593 3,687 3,590 3,654 3,574 3,646 72 81,250 70,240
Dec-18 3,458 3,605 3,458 3,568 3,525 3,516 -9 876 1,358
Jan-19 3,450 3,528 3,443 3,487 3,436 3,481 45 2,264,030 2,623,758
Mar-19 3,350 3,419 3,315 3,375 3,304 3,340 36 133,788 46,712
May-19 2,934 3,026 2,933 2,970 2,917 2,977 60 693,044 1,201,978
Jul-19 2,850 2,935 2,847 2,885 2,846 2,891 45 6,532 8,604
Aug-19 2,893 2,942 2,874 2,874 2,878 2,913 35 80 186
Sep-19 2,841 2,947 2,841 2,900 2,841 2,906 65 140,488 153,330
Palm Oil
Turnover: 482,742 lots, or 23.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-18 – – – 4,906 4,906 4,906 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 4,666 4,666 4,666 0 0 2
Dec-18 – – – 4,870 4,870 4,870 0 0 34
Jan-19 4,742 4,818 4,738 4,806 4,744 4,784 40 415,324 548,982
Feb-19 – – – 4,820 4,780 4,820 40 0 12
Mar-19 – – – 4,832 4,792 4,832 40 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,944 4,904 4,944 40 0 18
May-19 4,930 5,010 4,926 5,008 4,934 4,976 42 62,074 103,048
Jun-19 5,088 5,110 5,088 5,110 5,004 5,102 98 12 52
Jul-19 5,086 5,102 5,086 5,102 5,088 5,092 4 14 28
Aug-19 5,074 5,096 5,074 5,096 5,038 5,078 40 8 12
Sep-19 4,970 5,046 4,970 5,042 4,978 5,024 46 5,310 6,508
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 775,608 lots, or 45.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 5,742 5,930 5,742 5,930 5,902 5,836 -66 4 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,752 5,816 5,752 -64 0 16
Jan-19 5,886 5,988 5,886 5,964 5,892 5,932 40 636,550 833,562
Mar-19 – – – 5,982 5,942 5,982 40 0 112
May-19 5,806 5,908 5,806 5,882 5,806 5,860 54 127,986 342,074
Jul-19 – – – 5,866 5,812 5,866 54 0 18
Aug-19 5,930 5,930 5,930 5,930 5,810 5,930 120 2
Sep-19 5,798 5,900 5,796 5,870 5,796 5,850 54 11,066 15,742
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322