About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. August Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Oct 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Aug 2018—- —-Jul 2018—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 111,187,077 245,167,505 117,587,714 259,280,909
coffee, roasted 7,846,270 17,301,025 7,145,393 15,755,592
coffee, soluble
instant 3,860,518 8,512,442 3,518,620 7,758,557
-Cocoa
cocoa beans 26,371,351 58,148,829 23,006,912 50,730,241
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,492,146 5,495,182 2,881,159 6,352,956
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 9,132,795 20,137,813 8,418,008 18,561,708
cocoa paste,
not defatted 1,910,447 4,212,536 2,275,529 5,017,541
cocoa paste
defatted 4,232,317 9,332,259 4,606,809 10,158,014
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 8,960,430 19,757,748 9,317,323 20,544,697
cocoa powder,
sweetened 60,030 132,366 61,109 134,745
confectioners
coating 3,345,641 7,377,138 3,311,147 7,301,079
candy containing
chocolate 11,305,515 24,928,661 13,048,519 28,771,984

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was a little lower for the week as the weather was good for harvesting in just about all major crop areas. Some rains are possible in Texas and the rest of the Great Plains this week, but the rains should not cause any damage. The harvest might be a little slower in affected areas this week. US export demand has been poor for the last few weeks, and the lack of demand has hurt prices. Export demand needs to improve soon for prices to rally. The trade in India remains optimistic that a good crop is coming and that they will not need to import very much Cotton this year. China has been active in India buying and will buy as much as possible there to make up for production losses inside of China. Conditions have also improved in Pakistan as rains have been reported. Chart trends remain down, but nearby prices are getting close to target areas near 7500 on the weekly continuation charts.
Overnight News: Dry in the Delta and in the Southeast until Michael shows up in the next couple of days. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have rains this week. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 72.49 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 28,062 bales, from 27,622 bales yesterday. ICE said that 21 delivery notices were posted against October contracts yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are now 135 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7500 December. Support is at 7540, 7500, and 7430 December, with resistance of 7680, 7750, and 7790 December.

DJ USDA Volume of Cotton Classed Report – Oct 5
Data quoted in bales for week ending Oct 4. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 1,948 1,948 Southwest 114,897 931,586
NC – – Okla – 501
SC * – – Texas 114,897 931,085
Ga – 0 Kansas – –
Ala 1,948 1,948
Fla – – Far West 0 0
Va – – NM – –
Ariz * * –
Delta 68,327 73,387 Calif – –
Miss 10,328 10,482
Tenn 16,029 16,829 Pima – –
Mo 16,174 16,289 Other 0 0
Ark 14,708 14,708 Total US 185,172 1,006,921
La 11,088 15,079 pct tenderable 68.8 62.1

DJ U.S. August Cotton Exports-Oct 5
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Aug 18 Jul 18 Jun 18 Aug 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 10,403,858 13,904,186 17,901,289 3,635,743
1 to 1 1/8 inch 72,848,323 105,404,278 120,683,637 61,932,550
upland 1 1/8 and over 88,915,793 107,985,414 163,724,035 134,087,366
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 5,184,955 9,683,599 8,595,384 3,524,848
All cotton 177,352,929 236,977,477 310,904,345 203,180,507
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Aug 18 Jul 18 Jun 18 Aug 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 47,785 63,861 82,220 16,699
1 to 1 1/8 inch 334,590 484,118 554,295 284,454
upland 1 1/8 and over 408,387 495,973 751,978 615,858
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 23,814 44,476 39,478 16,189
All cotton 814,575 1,088,429 1,427,972 933,200

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 348,151
: Positions :
: 56,564 20,417 86,084 94,951 209,682 95,468 16,613 333,067 332,796: 15,083 15,355
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: 4,431) :
: -7,535 5,010 2,584 8,562 -4,779 1,406 225 5,017 3,040: -587 1,390
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 5.9 24.7 27.3 60.2 27.4 4.8 95.7 95.6: 4.3 4.4
: Total Traders: 309 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 74 96 64 74 43 18 256 224:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower Friday in quiet trading and as the trade gets ready for the USDA crop reports on Thursday. No changes are expected to the old crop estimate, but the new crop estimate could show a sharp recovery in production if one is released. Good weather continues in Florida and as prospects for a much improved crop from a year ago continue. Chart trends are down as futures stayed below some important resistance on the weekly charts. Overall growing conditions in Florida are good to very good, and there is no storm development in the Atlantic at this time. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used when needed, and producers expect a good crop.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or light showers, with best amounts and coverage expected on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 143.00, 141.00, and 139.00 November, with resistance at 147.00, 150.00, and 153.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 2, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 17,660 :
: Positions :
: 9,460 8,746 1,298 0 0 966 3,445 207 1,170 714 2,604 :
: :
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 :
: -149 -425 4 0 0 26 697 -120 7 7 186 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.6 49.5 7.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 19.5 1.2 6.6 4.0 14.7 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 19 13 4 0 0 6 16 4 11 7 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher last week, and weekly charts show that futures had their best week of upside action since the summer of 2017 in New York. It was a very positive close in New York, and the long-awaited short covering rally has started. Futures are now at initial resistance near 110.00 December, but have the potential to move through that area and closer to the 120.00 December area. Ideas of strong production in Brazil and Vietnam have been keeping futures under selling pressure. The Real has turned stronger before the elections in Brazil, and that might be helping to cause some speculative short covering. Higher US interest rates and inflation worries are causing buying in commodities in general. Vietnam is getting close to its next harvest, and ideas are that producers there need to sell more of the previous crop to create new storage space. Producers in both countries are not selling.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.412 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 105.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry weather until showers appear on Monday. Temperatures should be near to mostly above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 105.00, 103.00, and 102.00 December, and resistance is at 109.00, 110.00 and 111.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1600, 1570, and 1550 November, and resistance is at 1660, 1680, and 1690 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 405,420
: Positions :
: 39,374 136,549 113,843 157,807 114,494 72,631 28,194 383,655 393,080: 21,766 12,340
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: -2,226) :
: 505 -11,417 -225 -3,079 6,769 191 -207 -2,607 -5,080: 381 2,854
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 33.7 28.1 38.9 28.2 17.9 7.0 94.6 97.0: 5.4 3.0
: Total Traders: 542 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 177 159 164 134 108 46 28 451 378:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/02/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
168,697 97,269 66,347 6,675 9,475 2,813
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.7% 39.3% 4.0% 5.6% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
152 54 40 10 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================

Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,085 47,527 16,807 2,243 762 18,732
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.5% 28.2% 10.0% 1.3% 0.5% 11.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 35 15 7 8 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
8,073 6,234
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 3.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed higher and gapped higher on the weekly continuation charts. London was sharply higher as well. Both markets are showing that medium term lows have been made on the weekly charts. New York is at some important resistance areas, so some back and fill is possible this week. Sugar was supported by reduced selling in Brazil due to the presidential elections that were held yesterday and ideas of increasing inflation in the US. Ideas of big world production are bearish and have been the reason for the selling. Just about everyone is looking for a significant production well above any demand potential. Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India. Brazil producers are worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest, and the market still talks about less production there this year. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas. Recent rains in parts of Ukraine have continued to improve production prospects there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather this week and some showers early next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1290 March. Support is at 1230, 1210, and 1180 March, and resistance is at 1270, 1290, and 1300 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 342.00, 339.00, and 334.00 December, and resistance is at 348.00, 354.00, and 358.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 950,881
: Positions :
: 95,983 251,300 194,366 265,340 383,516 316,964 55,971 872,654 885,154: 78,227 65,727
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: 5,060) :
: -4,678 3,404 4,776 6,141 -3,651 3,028 1,639 9,267 6,167: -4,208 -1,108
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.1 26.4 20.4 27.9 40.3 33.3 5.9 91.8 93.1: 8.2 6.9
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 78 79 79 72 34 15 211 201:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/02/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
105,255 42,673 78,563 21,005 1,628 334
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 40.5% 74.6% 20.0% 1.5% 0.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139 45 57 11 3 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,167 10,008 7,672 3,802 1,109 2,720
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.1% 9.5% 7.3% 3.6% 1.1% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
23 15 16 8 4 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,883 3,221
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 3.1%

COCOA
General Comments Futures closed higher on Friday, but lower for the week as the new main crop harvest comes to market in West Africa. Trends remain down on the daily and weekly charts. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak, but there are some disease concerns for West Africa as a lot of humid air has promoted some concerns that Black Pod Disease could spread. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are high. Ghana and Nigeria are expecting very good crops this year as well. Ghana and Ivory Coast are hoping to set a joint minimum Price in an effort to ensure at least some return for their producers as prices now are viewed as cheap. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa, with heavy amounts of precipitation possible. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.108 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1950 December, with resistance at 2100, 2140, and 2160 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1460 December. Support is at 1500, 1460, and 1450 December, with resistance at 1560, 1570, and 1600 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 314,626
: Positions :
: 43,897 69,304 66,242 130,536 137,905 61,929 28,854 302,604 302,304: 12,023 12,322
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: 27,638) :
: -1,872 11,302 10,037 14,678 -2,447 3,417 5,186 26,260 24,078: 1,378 3,560
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.0 22.0 21.1 41.5 43.8 19.7 9.2 96.2 96.1: 3.8 3.9
: Total Traders: 228 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 69 73 44 40 31 19 181 170:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/02/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe

337,176 197,133 200,660 43,211 16,956 15,700
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.5% 59.5% 12.8% 5.0% 4.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
164 54 44 16 9 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
20,512 43,579 23,060 2,551 1,516 31,254
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.1% 12.9% 6.8% 0.8% 0.4% 9.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 29 9 10 11 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,755 4,452
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 1.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322