About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 09, 2018 41 Oct 02, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 09, 2018 212 Oct 04, 2018

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2018 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)

Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,851 14,700-14,969 14,827 14,604
Corn Yield 181.8 180.6-183.0 181.3 176.6
Harvested Acres 81.7 81.4-81.9 81.8 82.7
Soybean Production 4,733 4,623-4,890 4,693 4,392
Soybean Yield 53.4 52.0-55.0 52.8 49.1
Harvested Acres 88.7 88.2-88.9 88.9 89.5
Corn Soybean
Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 14,908 182.3 81.8 4,756 53.5 88.9
AgriSource 14,842 181.7 81.7 4,746 53.5 88.7
Agrivisor 14,800 181.0 81.8 4,714 53.2 88.6
Allendale 14,850 181.6 81.8 4,692 53.1 88.4
DC Analysis 14,845 181.5 81.8 4,711 53.3 88.4
Doane 14,927 182.5 81.8 4,718 53.5 88.2
EDF Man 14,969 183.0 81.8 4,800 54.0 88.9
Farm Futures 14,905 182.0 81.9 4,702 53.0 88.7
Hueber Report 14,700 180.6 81.4 4,623 52.0 88.9
INTL FCStone 14,939 182.7 81.8 4,779 54.0 88.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,833 182.0 81.5 4,729 53.5 88.4
North Star Commodity 14,802 181.0 81.8 4,747 53.4 88.9
Price Group 14,745 180.9 81.5 4,688 53.0 88.5
Prime Ag 14,888 182.0 81.8 4,756 53.5 88.9
RJO Brien 14,822 182.0 N/A 4,727 53.2 N/A
RMC 14,847 181.5 81.8 4,890 55.0 88.9
US Commodities 14,854 181.6 81.8 4,721 53.1 88.9
Vantage RM 14,928 182.5 81.8 4,747 53.4 88.9
Western Milling 14,806 181.0 81.8 4,712 53.0 88.9
Zaner 14,817 181.8 81.5 4,710 53.1 88.7

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 1,932 1,774-2,352 1,774
Soybeans 860 442-975 845
Wheat 1,027 895-2,379 935
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,825 885 945
AgriSource 1,927 942 945
Agrivisor 1,935 492 942
Allendale 1,908 934 952
DC Analysis 1,900 901 915
Doane 2,000 870 1000
EDF Man 1,820 910 960
Farm Futures 1,960 823 997
Hueber Report 1,774 778 935
INTL FCStone 2,352 935 990
Sid Love Consulting 1,918 892 943
North Star Commodity 1,835 950 950
Price Group 1,855 883 922
Prime-Ag 1,923 941 962
RJO Brien 2,047 975 987
RMC 2,150 442 2,379
US Commodities 1,914 896 895
Vantage RM 1,920 960 950
Western Milling 1,804 890 1,020
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,872 895 958

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18 Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 195.0 192.0-197.5 194.2
Soybeans 95.4 94.7-97.3 94.7
Wheat 274.5 273.0-276.0 274.4
2018-19
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 159.2 156.0-165.9 157.0
Soybeans 109.4 105.5-113.0 108.3
Wheat 261.1 259.0-263.7 261.3
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 196.2 95.5 N/A 158.9 109.8 260.4
Agrivisor N/A N/A N/A 156.0 108.5 260.0
Allendale 197.1 95.0 274.4 159.2 110.1 261.9
Doane 197.5 96.0 275.0 164.0 111.0 262.0
EDF Man 195.0 96.0 276.0 160.0 110.0 263.0
Farm Futures 192.0 95.0 273.0 158.0 113.0 260.0
Hueber Report 194.2 94.7 274.4 156.0 108.0 259.0
INTL FCStone 193.4 95.2 275.0 165.9 105.5 263.7
North Star Comm 195.0 95.2 275.0 158.5 109.5 261.0
Prime-Ag N/A N/A N/A 160.0 110.0 260.0
RMC 194.3 94.8 274.3 157.1 108.4 261.3
US Commodities 195.0 95.3 274.1 158.1 108.8 260.3
Western Milling 195.0 95.0 274.0 158.0 109.0 260.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 195.9 97.3 274.4 159.8 110.1 263.4

DJ FAO Food Price Index Falls in September as Corn Drops
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices slipped in September, dropping across all categories with the exception of sugar, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Thursday.
The FAO Food Price Index was down 1.4% from its August level and down 7.4% when compared with the same period last year, the organization said.
Cereal prices fell 2.8% on the month. The sharpest month-on-month decline concerned corn, which fell by at least 4% from August, mostly on expectations of a very large global crop, particularly in the U.S. Wheat and rice prices also fell due to larger-than-expected Russian supply.
Dairy prices fell 2.4%, while meat prices edged lower from their revised August price. Vegetable oils fell 2.3% on month to a three-year low, falling for the eighth straight month.
Sugar prices rose 2.1% on month but remained 21% down on the year, having been pummeled by huge global supply expectations and the movement of the Brazilian real amid pre-election political uncertainty.

DJ U.S. August Grain Exports-Oct 5
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Aug 18 Jul 18 Jun 18 Aug 17(*)
Barley 2,763,043 6,688,610 4,405,893 1,138,000
Corn /1 5,842,643,000 6,766,334,000 7,117,203,000 3,494,450,000
Sorghum 226,811,000 95,650,000 42,928,000 317,330,000
Oats 1,823,625 863,501 3,467,741 2,587,944
Rye 1,162,313 694,267 466,347 393,684
Wheat /1 2,101,182,268 1,773,053,877 1,530,732,133 2,315,142,727
wheat flour /1 21,467,447 18,461,293 26,840,290 32,724,711
Malt 35,335,052 36,176,598 35,792,491 36,591,351
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Aug 18 Jul 18 Jun 18 Aug 17(*)
Barley 126,904 307,202 202,359 52,267
Corn /1 230,012,334 266,376,069 280,189,030 137,569,008
Sorghum 8,929,063 3,765,536 1,689,983 12,492,602
Oats 125,636 59,490 238,906 178,293
Rye 45,758 27,332 18,359 15,498
Wheat /1 77,204,440 65,147,909 56,244,200 85,066,060
wheat flour /1 473,276 407,002 591,727 721,456
Malt 77,900,468 79,755,760 78,908,949 80,670,134
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. August Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Oct 5
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Aug 18 Jul 18 Jun 18 Aug 17(*)
soybeans 3,367,527,883 3,426,697,714 3,256,177,059 3,076,280,569
soy oil 89,673,336 79,267,050 103,568,034 74,016,292
crude 73,253,711 61,380,449 86,703,348 58,152,578
refined 73,925 164,409 94,936 190,405
other/1 16,137,264 17,366,248 16,432,424 15,423,919
hydrogenated 208,436 355,944 337,326 249,390
cottonseed oil 3,819,713 8,421,946 3,165,861 5,077,047
crude 87,049 20,100 127,789 184,241
refined 2,360,635 1,586,347 1,831,602 958,356
other/1 1,372,029 6,789,204 1,206,470 3,873,343
hydrogenated 0 26,295 0 61,107
sun seeds 38,277 366,604 2,969,385 307,571
sunseed oil 3,441,586 3,732,352 3,338,918 2,549,288
rapeseed 6,563,123 15,484,539 12,580,113 6,366,661
rapeseed oil 9,064,682 8,569,622 9,117,152 5,910,377
crude 3,272,496 4,109,385 4,741,503 850,219
refined 5,792,186 4,460,237 4,375,649 5,060,158
linseed meal 215,791 117,738 260,211 235,311
cottonseed meal 9,458,402 9,654,811 14,534,737 12,309,936
soymeal 990,184,003 871,882,792 1,031,863,484 667,072,312
soymeal/flour 214,745,193 249,430,232 297,795,951 122,917,017
soymeal hulls 14,756,000 17,722,000 13,275,000 4,245,000
lard 1,082,163 565,241 1,311,315 1,307,877
edible tallow 8,790,897 8,087,287 8,877,623 4,711,536
inedible tallow 17,909,439 26,286,233 23,001,093 13,752,576
ch white grease 0 24,131 8,033 43,730
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Aug 18 Jul 18 Jun 18 Aug 17(*)
soybeans 123,734,198 125,908,295 119,642,798 113,032,801
soyoil 197,695,899 174,753,962 228,328,470 163,178,020
crude 161,496,816 135,320,750 191,148,195 128,204,511
refined 162,977 362,460 209,298 419,771
other/1 35,576,583 38,286,030 36,227,300 34,003,927
hydrogenated 459,523 784,722 743,677 549,811
cottonseed oil 8,421,027 18,567,216 6,979,530 11,192,975
crude 191,910 44,313 281,727 406,182
refined 5,204,310 3,497,297 4,037,992 2,112,814
other/1 3,024,807 14,967,635 2,659,812 8,539,261
hydrogenated 0 57,971 0 134,718
sunseeds 84,386 808,224 6,546,374 678,078
sunseed oil 7,587,400 8,228,429 7,361,055 5,620,219
rapeseed 14,469,212 34,137,571 27,734,406 14,036,087
rapeseed oil 19,984,206 18,892,786 20,099,883 13,030,153
crude 7,214,620 9,059,645 10,453,227 1,874,412
refined 12,769,586 9,833,141 9,646,656 11,155,741
linseed meal 238 130 287 259
cottonseed meal 10,426 10,642 16,022 13,569
soymeal 1,091,480 961,076 1,137,423 735,314
soymeal flour/me 236,714 274,947 328,260 135,491
soymeal hulls 16,266 19,535 14,633 4,679
lard 2,385,761 1,246,143 2,890,955 2,883,376
edible tallow 19,380,614 17,829,419 19,571,812 10,387,161
inedible tallow 39,483,561 57,951,234 50,708,739 30,319,245
ch white grease 0 53,200 17,710 96,408

DJ U.S. August Grain Imports-Oct 5
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Aug 2018—- —-Jul 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 3,403,637 7,505,020 965,021 2,127,871
spring wheat 25,989,798 57,307,505 34,172,271 75,349,858
winter wheat 17,388,347 38,341,305 2,126,784 4,689,559
wheat/meslin 76,925,214 169,620,097 58,790,818 129,633,754
TOTAL WHEAT 123,706,996 272,773,926 96,054,894 211,801,041
barley 2,741,114 6,044,156 4,643,341 10,238,567
oats 481,943 1,062,684 318,778 702,905
corn 93,270,692 205,661,876 59,376,082 130,924,261
other corn 8,476,143 18,689,895 15,347,616 33,841,493
TOTAL CORN 101,746,835 224,351,771 74,723,698 164,765,754

DJ U.S. Aug Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Oct 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Aug 2018—- —-Jul 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 34,722,211 76,562,475 37,642,164 83,000,972
palm kernel oil 29,665,096 65,411,537 29,528,556 65,110,466
palm oil 108,681,133 239,641,898 103,085,209 227,302,886
soybean 18,445,334 40,671,961 52,447,478 115,646,689
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 10,776,706 23,762,637 14,853,667 32,752,336
rapeseed oil
edible 161,089,727 355,202,848 143,680,910 316,816,407
rapeseed oil,
inedible 34,672 76,452 0 0

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat was higher on Friday as world prices held firm. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production. It remains very dry in Australia, and yield and production estimates continue to drop well below those estimated by USDA. It is reported to be wet and cold in Siberia, but planting conditions are reported to be improved near the Black Sea.. Harvest has been difficult in parts of the Canadian Prairies due to snow and cold weather. Bullish traders think it is just a matter of time before world buyers turn to the US as the other major exporters would be out of Wheat for export, but for now the buyers are looking everywhere they can for other origins and are trying to avoid US Wheat. The weather in the US is improved for planting the next Winter Wheat crop as much of the Great Plains has seen rains in the last couple of weeks and planting progress is slowing. More rain is possible later this week. Russia announced over the weekend that it would sell 1.5 million tons of Grain from state reserves into the domestic market.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible this weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but showers are expected on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but showers in Eastern areas. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 514, 510, and 505 December, with resistance at 524, 527, and 531 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 518, 507, and 499 December, with resistance at 531, 534, and 536 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 605, 629, and 654 December. Support is at 586, 584, and 582 December, and resistance is at 595, 599, and 600 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 613,383
: Positions :
: 70,413 112,292 193,874 120,474 190,767 187,678 69,556 572,440 566,489: 40,943 46,894
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: 27,643) :
: 1,927 5,813 12,309 13,682 6,447 -841 6,095 27,076 30,664: 566 -3,021
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 18.3 31.6 19.6 31.1 30.6 11.3 93.3 92.4: 6.7 7.6
: Total Traders: 450 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 115 137 163 109 124 42 24 367 361:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 305,546
: Positions :
: 67,286 49,956 64,512 76,198 147,277 72,153 18,749 280,148 280,494: 25,397 25,052
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: 10,774) :
: 1,907 5,668 708 5,829 5,079 2,119 732 10,563 12,188: 211 -1,414
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.0 16.3 21.1 24.9 48.2 23.6 6.1 91.7 91.8: 8.3 8.2
: Total Traders: 272 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 54 74 74 92 32 13 208 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 2, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 65,772 :
: Positions :
: 32,815 30,110 3,764 0 412 7,898 11,815 1,070 5,568 6,135 4,141 :
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 :
: 872 1,459 167 0 63 439 1,480 606 92 -671 505 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.9 45.8 5.7 0.0 0.6 12.0 18.0 1.6 8.5 9.3 6.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 99 :
: 44 32 6 0 4 14 7 4 12 8 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 2, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 22,639 :
: Positions :
: 16,501 18,023 400 1,256 204 3,505 0 300 670 740 300 :
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 :
: 765 881 100 -75 118 612 0 200 -200 40 -300 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 72.9 79.6 1.8 5.5 0.9 15.5 0.0 1.3 3.0 3.3 1.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 33 :
: 17 15 . . . 4 0 . . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again on Friday on what appeared to be follow through fund short covering. The funds have held a massive short position and are now trying to buy out of that position, but they are finding little selling interest. Farmers think prices are too cheap and are still concentrating on harvesting in most areas. Futures rallied more than $1.00 per cwt. last week. The second crop harvest in Texas and Louisiana will be underway soon. Good to excellent yields have been reported in Texas and Louisiana so far, and good to very good yield reports are being heard in Mississippi and Arkansas. Cash prices are somewhat weaker as mills and elevators fill up. Milling yields have been acceptable to very good. Export demand has been good, and was especially strong last week as futures moved lower. Good export demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News: The Delta should see drier weather. Temperatures should be near normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1200 November. Support is at 1065, 1050, and 1042 November, with resistance at 1095, 1103, and 1119 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 2, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,774 :
: Positions :
: 5,672 2,784 237 0 0 323 3,678 20 693 621 925 :
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 :
: 358 -93 66 0 0 -89 447 5 267 7 291 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 58.0 28.5 2.4 0.0 0.0 3.3 37.6 0.2 7.1 6.4 9.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 52 :
: 16 15 . 0 0 . 11 . 13 . 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on Friday and higher for the week. Chart patterns remain bullish and point to moves to about 378 December and then just under 400 December over time. The harvest continues to roll along with at least some work going on in almost all areas of the Midwest. Rain started to delay harvest progress late last week, and rains are expected early this week before drier weather returns. Harvest data as reported by producers still suggest that the crop can be another very big one. Harvest yield reports appear stronger in the eastern belt than to the west. Rainfall patterns have been very tropical this year, and have featured excessive rains in some areas and dry weather in others. Some yield reports are lower than averages and reflect losses due to the extreme weather. It has been a warm Summer as average temperatures have generally been a few degrees above long-term averages. The warm temperatures have kept plants active and have pushed maturity forward by up to two weeks or so. US Corn export sales remain very strong and were over 1.5 million tons last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 373 December. Support is at 360, 355, and 350 December, and resistance is at 370, 372, and 376 December. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 285, 280, and 279 December, and resistance is at 294, 297, and 300 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,101,050
: Positions :
: 259,775 355,061 544,073 665,785 841,388 419,831 136,412 1,889,465 1,876,934: 211,586 224,116
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: -26,865) :
: -5,777 -56,992 7,298 -24,740 22,795 -623 -2,169 -23,842 -29,067: -3,022 2,202
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 16.9 25.9 31.7 40.0 20.0 6.5 89.9 89.3: 10.1 10.7
: Total Traders: 877 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 175 170 223 359 381 45 26 703 696:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 2, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,723 :
: Positions :
: 1,047 2,091 191 0 0 225 320 0 1,029 773 455 :
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 :
: -324 28 -5 0 0 137 -103 0 142 319 -15 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.2 44.3 4.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 6.8 0.0 21.8 16.4 9.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 6 7 . 0 0 . . 0 7 6 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher last week, and Soybean Meal was also higher. Futures are rallying as export demand has been much stronger than anticipated despite the trade war with China. The USDA export sales reports continued to show very good demand for US Soybeans. The trade war with the Chinese continues, but other importers have been buying in the US in a big way as US prices are very cheap. They are cheaper than South American prices even with the 25% tariffs. Traders hope this trend continues, and traders also think that China will eventually need to find a way to buy US Soybeans at a reduced rate as they can’t buy enough in South America and other areas to cover their needs. There have been reports that Argentina, Brazil, and Canada are buying US Soybeans at the discounted US prices so they can sell their own Soybeans to the Chinese and reap some very big profits. Harvest results so far have generally been strong, and a big crop is expected in the US this year. Harvest has been interrupted in the last few days because of some big rains in the Midwest. These rains should continue for the first part of this week before somewhat drier weather returns. Farmers are actively planting in Brazil and overall planting progress is much ahead of normal.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 872 and 879 November. Support is at 852, 843, and 837 November, and resistance is at 870, 881, and 884 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 315.00, 310.00, and 308.00 December, and resistance is at 320.00, 321.00, and 324.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3010 December. Support is at 2920, 2900, and 2840 December, with resistance at 3000, 3040, and 3080 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,036,462
: Positions :
: 85,730 186,011 284,167 383,388 386,328 214,686 81,132 967,972 937,638: 68,491 98,824
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: 2,773) :
: 150 -14,065 4,756 -11,506 10,329 11,349 2,115 4,749 3,136: -1,976 -362
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 17.9 27.4 37.0 37.3 20.7 7.8 93.4 90.5: 6.6 9.5
: Total Traders: 705 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 170 186 247 213 217 46 29 575 565:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 587,068
: Positions :
: 78,149 122,793 154,650 179,495 249,309 134,162 26,703 546,456 553,456: 40,612 33,612
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: -30,790) :
: 5,110 -28,008 -15,804 -16,819 19,117 -4,228 -7,292 -31,739 -31,987: 949 1,197
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 20.9 26.3 30.6 42.5 22.9 4.5 93.1 94.3: 6.9 5.7
: Total Traders: 351 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 104 123 82 70 36 17 280 259:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 566,182
: Positions :
: 74,416 47,631 123,609 193,514 315,911 117,509 36,576 509,048 523,727: 57,134 42,456
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 (Change in open interest: 102) :
: 4,760 1,549 -1,555 -6,052 561 650 600 -2,196 1,156: 2,298 -1,054
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 8.4 21.8 34.2 55.8 20.8 6.5 89.9 92.5: 10.1 7.5
: Total Traders: 322 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 56 102 103 103 33 12 274 242:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher as harvest progress remained slow due to uneven weather and harvest conditions. stronger Soybean Oil prices supported Canola prices. The weaker Canadian Dollar supported prices. The Canola harvest is active, but producers are not selling as overall progress is at least a week behind. Reports indicate slow progress in the western growing areas due to cold and wet weather. Snow is falling in some areas, and the harvest in these areas is stopped. Quality and yield losses are expected in these areas Palm Oil was a little lower on ideas that production was starting to increase again. Export demand is much improved last month, and there is now talk that ending stocks will not increase despite increased production. Demand ideas are strong for this month as well. The charts show that December filled a small gap on the daily charts. Ideas are that here ill be plenty of production for any demand. Chart trends remain down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 506.00 November. Support is at 497.00, 494.00, and 490.00 November, with resistance at 502.00, 505.00, and 508.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2230 and 2290 December. Support is at 2200, 2180, and 2150 December, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2280 December.

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Sep
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Wednesday, 10 Oct
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.86 mil tonnes, Up 14.7%
Exports – 1.65 mil tonnes, Up 50.0%
Ending Stocks – 2.47 mil tonnes, Down 0.7%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.62 mil tonnes, Up 7.9%
Exports – 1.10 mil tonnes, Down 8.1%
Ending Stocks – 2.49 mil tonnes, Up 12.4%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 2, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 171,026 :
: Positions :
: 102,266 88,194 5,561 841 1,712 37,089 35,891 9,278 4,316 24,060 9,619 :
: Changes from: September 25, 2018 :
: -35,998 -20,339 -2,206 -346 -300 2,215 -8,982 -1,024 76 -5,819 -1,024 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 59.8 51.6 3.3 0.5 1.0 21.7 21.0 5.4 2.5 14.1 5.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 232 :
: 27 31 4 5 7 17 42 13 59 66 30 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Oct 5
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Sep. 30, 2018. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2915.2 796.1 229.7 390.1 50.7 1042.4 370.0 194.6 6662.0
Week ago 2830.9 777.2 214.6 403.4 49.7 944.5 421.4 217.2 6419.4
Year ago 3248.6 708.6 214.2 268.8 68.9 1285.7 370.9 40.8 6764.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 415.4 46.5 46.9 95.9 4.7 482.4 59.2 7.5 1262.8
Week Ago 328.0 47.9 44.4 72.1 3.3 316.1 65.8 6.0 1006.4
To Date 3874.2 620.2 472.4 607.6 31.0 2869.5 824.2 113.1 10045.1
Year Ago 3284.1 577.9 518.7 432.7 42.8 3527.5 1096.0 63.3 10169.4
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 483.5 54.1 11.6 43.9 0.0 287.4 62.0 5.1 1092.9
Week Ago 430.1 40.9 4.3 85.4 0.0 262.5 29.9 19.6 928.5
To Date 4400.2 587.3 100.9 263.2 20.7 1413.8 438.0 132.1 7831.4
Year Ago 3499.9 840.9 19.8 214.9 23.0 1667.1 724.2 41.5 7382.9
EXPORTS
This Week 303.0 34.0 17.5 84.5 1.1 258.8 55.8 0.0 795.9
Week Ago 322.1 133.8 70.3 20.4 0.8 263.2 61.6 22.8 903.3
To Date 3161.7 511.3 316.5 211.7 41.8 1239.1 410.1 237.8 6448.8
Year Ago 2726.3 641.0 314.1 260.5 34.7 1397.4 742.1 63.3 6343.9
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 118.8 1.5 4.9 21.2 1.5 171.4 7.2 16.6 364.1
Week Ago 69.7 1.5 4.8 21.1 0.7 149.0 4.0 29.2 304.5
To Date 744.0 52.7 48.1 196.5 7.6 1459.7 33.9 210.5 2958.3
Year Ago 1006.9 167.2 42.9 219.8 9.1 1369.3 37.8 102.5 3166.2
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Indonesia Palm-Oil Supplies Fell 6.3% in August — Market Talk
0133 GMT – Indonesian palm-oil stockpiles fell 6.3% in August to 4.6 million tons but remain well above start-of-year levels, according to data released by the Indonesian palm oil board. Gapki says the monthly drop was on weaker production and a slight increase in demand, which may provide support for prices. They remain not far from 2-year lows.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms at times into next week. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 39 December 120 December 50 December 5 November 14 December
November 46 December 60 December 18 November
December 52 December 65 December 17 January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
October 65 December
November 3 December 75 December
December 275 January 7 December 88 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 476.00 dn 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 511.30 up 2.30
2 Can 498.30 up 2.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 526.30 dn 2.70
2 Can 513.30 dn 2.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 178,316 lots, or 6.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 3,750 3,750 3,675 3,749 3,639 3,728 89 16 292
Jan-19 3,785 3,832 3,768 3,830 3,748 3,800 52 162,042 255,756
Mar-19 3,749 3,832 3,749 3,797 3,732 3,798 66 30 74
May-19 3,850 3,906 3,843 3,905 3,831 3,879 48 15,684 30,088
Jul-19 3,897 3,897 3,832 3,832 3,784 3,864 80 4 6
Sep-19 3,883 3,926 3,883 3,913 3,855 3,894 39 530 2,004
Nov-19 – – – 3,785 3,785 3,785 0 0 12
Jan-20 3,928 3,947 3,920 3,944 3,894 3,933 39 10 86
Corn
Turnover: 723,670 lots, or 13.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 1,821 1,839 1,821 1,838 1,826 1,827 1 14,008 33,242
Jan-19 1,847 1,866 1,845 1,864 1,850 1,856 6 471,992 780,960
Mar-19 1,887 1,901 1,884 1,899 1,889 1,895 6 14,200 7,502
May-19 1,952 1,973 1,951 1,968 1,951 1,962 11 188,456 416,792
Jul-19 1,984 2,010 1,984 2,005 1,985 2,002 17 4,504 16,114
Sep-19 2,028 2,049 2,028 2,044 2,027 2,039 12 30,510 93,302
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,642,018 lots, or 54.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 3,579 3,610 3,552 3,590 3,508 3,574 66 94,982 88,280
Dec-18 3,524 3,534 3,517 3,532 3,422 3,525 103 124 980
Jan-19 3,420 3,457 3,412 3,449 3,345 3,436 91 1,127,932 2,572,182
Mar-19 3,240 3,323 3,240 3,318 3,155 3,304 149 52,236 34,088
May-19 2,899 2,945 2,892 2,935 2,851 2,917 66 318,396 1,117,554
Jul-19 2,842 2,862 2,816 2,851 2,788 2,846 58 2,662 8,262
Aug-19 2,836 2,885 2,836 2,875 2,804 2,878 74 62 184
Sep-19 2,848 2,859 2,823 2,856 2,781 2,841 60 45,624 127,916
Palm Oil
Turnover: 258,990 lots, or 12.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-18 – – – 4,906 4,906 4,906 0 0 0
Nov-18 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 0 6 2
Dec-18 – – – 4,870 4,862 4,870 8 0 34
Jan-19 4,750 4,768 4,732 4,750 4,700 4,744 44 213,796 564,354
Feb-19 4,780 4,780 4,780 4,780 4,798 4,780 -18 2 12
Mar-19 – – – 4,792 4,792 4,792 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,904 4,904 4,904 0 0 18
May-19 4,930 4,952 4,916 4,940 4,870 4,934 64 42,552 100,910
Jun-19 – – – 5,004 5,004 5,004 0 0 54
Jul-19 5,040 5,136 5,040 5,136 5,012 5,088 76 4 28
Aug-19 – – – 5,038 5,038 5,038 0 0 12
Sep-19 4,960 4,998 4,826 4,984 4,910 4,978 68 2,630 2,918
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 295,162 lots, or 17.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 5,902 5,902 5,902 0 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,816 5,816 5,816 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,904 5,920 5,868 5,882 5,850 5,892 42 231,188 819,870
Mar-19 – – – 5,942 5,900 5,942 42 0 112
May-19 5,792 5,826 5,790 5,808 5,756 5,806 50 59,534 330,602
Jul-19 – – – 5,812 5,812 5,812 0 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 5,810 5,810 5,810 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,798 5,816 5,782 5,792 5,768 5,796 28 4,440 10,030
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322