About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ September U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Friday.
2018 Wheat Production
USDA
Average Range August 2017
All Wheat 1,871 1,848-1,907 1,877 1,741
Winter Wheat 1,188 1,170-1,200 1,189 1,269
Hard Red Winter 661 645-666 661 750
Soft Red Winter 290 285-294 292 292
White Winter 237 230-247 236 227
Other Spring 610 591-635 614 416
Durum 72 70-74 73 55
All Winter Other
Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Advanced Market 1,887 1,194 665 292 237 620 73
AgriVisor 1,848 1,180 660 290 230 595 73
Allendale 1,866 1,189 661 292 236 606 71
DC Analysis 1,856 1,180 658 288 234 603 73
Doane 1,877 1,189 661 292 236 614 73
EDFMan Capital 1,880 1,190 660 290 240 620 70
Farm Futures 1,907 1,198 666 294 238 635 74
INTL FCStone 1,886 1,200 661 292 247 614 72
Linn 1,849 1,170 645 290 235 610 70
Sid Love Consult 1,857 1,184 656 292 236 599 73
Northstar 1,850 1,186 661 290 235 591 73
Price Group 1,882 1,200 666 287 247 610 72
RJ O’Brien 1,868 1,187 662 290 236 607 73
US Commodities 1,885
Vantage RM 1,877 1,189 661 292 236 614 73
Western Milling 1,869 1,187 660 291 236 610 72
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,867 1,187 665 285 238 608 72

DJ Survey: Sep. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for September 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2018 (million bushels)
Average Range USDA June 2018 USDA Sept. 2017
Corn 2002 1,953-2,099 5306 2293
Soybeans 394 385-408 1222 302
Wheat 2350 2,155-2,443 1100 2266
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,010 400 2,380
AgriVisor 1,995 385 2,360
Allendale 2,032 399 2,410
DC Analysis 1,990 396 2,361
Doane 2,012 390 2,332
EDFMan Capital 1,995 390 2,155
Farm Futures 1,969 407 2,270
INTL FCStone 2,020 406 2,425
Sid Love Consulti 1,982 385 2,312
Northstar 1,985 385 2,440
Price Group 1,988 385 2,443
RJ O’Brien 1,989 387 2,342
US Commodities 2,012 395
Vantage RM 1,995 390 2,306
Western Milling 1,953 400 2,419
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,099 408 2,298

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Sep 27
For the week ended Sep 20, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 657.1 0.0 10864.4 13518.5 4681.2 0.0
hrw 175.7 0.0 3140.5 5065.0 1384.9 0.0
srw 96.5 0.0 1357.1 1331.8 635.5 0.0
hrs 244.9 0.0 3332.3 3651.0 1419.6 0.0
white 129.5 0.0 2767.4 3219.0 1118.1 0.0
durum 10.5 0.0 267.0 251.6 123.0 0.0
corn 1712.8 -9.7 18268.0 11350.1 15104.3 71.1
soybeans 870.7 1.5 18803.1 22314.6 16287.2 81.5
soymeal 147.3 511.9 12740.8 10428.9 882.0 2523.0
soyoil 2.7 8.0 1074.2 1139.2 76.0 63.6
upland cotto 70.3 58.2 9003.4 7233.4 7789.2 1479.1
pima cotton 7.3 0.0 274.7 291.4 227.6 25.3
sorghum 0.0 0.0 65.7 1197.1 61.8 0.0
barley 2.1 0.0 55.5 36.9 41.7 0.0
rice 138.5 0.0 781.5 703.7 442.5 0.0

DJ IGC Raises 2018/2019 Grain-Production Forecast, Boosts Corn
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Grains Council said Thursday that it has increased its forecast for global grain production for both this season and the next.
The IGC’s fresh monthly forecasts boost expected 2017-18 production by 3 million metric tons to 2,095 million tons, and expected 2018/2019 production by 9 million tons to 2,072 million metric tons.
The changes represent increases of 0.1% and 0.4% on the grain body’s figures from last month’s report.
In its predictions for the 2018/2019 production season, the IGC upped its expected corn production to 1,074 million tons from 1,064 million tons. That increase combined with a 4-million-ton increase to expected soybean production, bringing that forecast total to 370 million tons, complimented by a 1-million-ton addition to the wheat production forecast, at 717 million tons.
Expected rice production was flat at 491 million tons.
“Nearly all the adjustment is for maize, including increased figures for the US (+6.1 million tons), the EU (+2.7 million tons) and Ukraine (+1.2 million tons),” the IGC said, adding that, for soybeans, “reduced shipments to China are more than offset by bigger deliveries to other markets, including Argentina, the EU, North Africa and Near East Asia.”
U.S. wheat futures were last up 0.43% at $5.20 a bushel; corn futures were last up 0.21% at $3.64 a bushel; and soybean futures were up 0.18% at $8.52 a bushel.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat was a little lower as the market waits for some strong demand news for US Wheat. World prices are firm amid ideas of less world production available to the market, but US Wheat is not really getting a big increase in business yet. The stronger prices are partly in reaction to reports of freezing temperatures in parts of Australia that might have further damaged crop there. It remains very dry in Australia, and yield and production estimates continue to drop well below those estimated by USDA. World supplies are already tight, and now could be even less. Bullish traders think it is just a matter of time before world buyers turn to the US as the other major exporters would be out of Wheat for export, but for now the buyers are looking everywhere they can for other origins and are trying to avoid US Wheat. The weather in the US is improved for planting the next Winter Wheat crop as much of the Great Plains has seen rains in the last couple of weeks and planting progress is rapid. Wire reports indicate that the planting weather has also improved in Winter Wheat areas of Russia as there have been some rains lately.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible in the east today and Friday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers through Wednesday than drier weather. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed yo up with objectives of 534 and 544 December. Support is at 515, 514, and 510 December, with resistance at 527, 531, and 533 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 538 and 548 December. Support is at 519, 511, and 510 December, with resistance at 530, 534, and 536 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 605 and 629 December. Support is at 572, 567, and 560 December, and resistance is at 586, 591, and 596 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in slow trading. The harvest progress is moving as fast as possible in the northern Delta, and field yields in all major production areas are reported to be very high. The first crop harvest is done in Texas and Louisiana and the second crop harvest will begin in a couple of weeks. Good yields are also being reported in Mississippi and harvesting has been active when possible. There were some delays due to rains, but no quality was lost so far. The harvest is progressing farther to the north and field yields are called good to very good. There have been some big rains in recent days to slow harvest progress down, but producers are hoping for no quality loss. We have not heard any milling test results yet. Cash values have been reported weaker amid light demand and limited storage space in Texas. Chart trends remain down.
Overnight News: The Delta should see scattered showers today, then drier weather. Temperatures should be near normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 967, 960, and 948 November, with resistance at 1013, 1018, and 1023 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday in correction trading. The harvest is active and yield reports are still coming in from the fields. The harvest was slower in Iowa and Illinois yesterday due to rains seen on Tuesday. Yield reports seen so far suggest that the crops in general are good. But, there has been some variability in the estimates and that makes the projections from USDA harder to get in the end. The best yields seem to be in the Eastern Corn Belt so far this year. Low yields are reported in northwest Missouri and Kansas. More rains are expected into this weekend, but coverage should be spotty. Farmers appear quiet and are only delivering against contracts or previous sales.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1,036 million barrels per day last week, down from 1,051 million the previous week, but up from 996,000 the previous year. Ethanol stocks were 22.6 million barrels in the week ending September 21, from 22.7 million the previous week and 20.7 million the previous year. Ethanol production used an estimated 106.3 million bushels of corn last week, versus 107.9 million the previous week and 102.2 million the previous year. Estimated corn use for Ethanol through the first three weeks of the marketing year totals 318.9 million bushels
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 373 December. Support is at 355, 350, and 347 December, and resistance is at 364, 370, and 372 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 257 December. Support is at 256, 254, and 253 December, and resistance is at 262, 264, and 265 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little higher. Funds were the best buyers, but strong demand has been seen for export so far this week, with Mexico the featured buyer. US yield reports have generally been high and the trade thinks that a big crop is in the process of being harvested. There will be a lot of Soybeans in the US and that means upside movement in prices should be limited. Domestic cash markets are called extremely weak with very bad basis levels in anticipation of the big harvest and lack of demand. The crop has turned color and leaves are dropping everywhere. US prices are now cheap enough in world markets that the Chinese tariffs of 25% on US Soybeans imports are now part of the price. That fact alone has  created the speculative buying in futures and the increased interest in buying by world customers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 862 and 879 November. Support is at 845, 837, and 829 November, and resistance is at 855, 858, and 866 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 303.00, 299.00, and 297.00 October, and resistance is at 309.00, 313.00, and 318.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2820, 2790, and 2740 October, with resistance at 2870, 2910, and 2940 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher as harvest progress remained slow due to uneven weather and harvest conditions. The Canola harvest is active, but producers are not selling. Reports indicate slow progress in the western growing areas due to cold and wet weather. Quality and yield losses are expected in these areas Palm Oil was a little lower. Export demand is much improved this month, and there is now talk that ending stocks will not increase despite increased production. The charts show that December filled a small gap on the daily charts. Ideas are that here ill be plenty of production for any demand. Chart trends remain down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 498.00 and 506.00 November. Support is at 490.00, 487.00, and 484.00 November, with resistance at 495.00, 499.00, and 501.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2160, 2140, and 2120 December, with resistance at 2220, 2230, and 2260 December.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Monthly Crush – Sep 26
WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada
for the month of August, reported by Statistics Canada are as
follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2018/19 2017/18
Canola Aug 2018 Aug 2017 To Date To Date
Seed Crushed 742,988 628,918 742,988 628,918
Oil Produced 333,324 275,594 333,324 275,594
Meal Produced 410,764 351,380 410,764 351,380
Soybeans
Seed Crushed 168,539 136,231 168,539 136,231
Oil Produced 30,964 25,580 30,964 25,580
Meal Produced 130,675 105,295 130,675 105,295
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms again this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 37 December 117 December 40 December 5 November 14 October
October 40 December 55 December Minus 2 Nov
November 48 December 60 December 14 November
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
October 260 November October Price 75 December
November 260 November 7 October 78 December
December 10 December 90 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 26
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 464.90 up 1.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 504.70 up 3.80
2 Can 491.70 up 3.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 520.70 up 3.80
2 Can 507.70 up 3.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 545.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 550.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 555.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 572.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Oct 547.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 552.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 557.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 575.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 525.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 462.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,140 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 206 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1385)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 184,900 lots, or 6.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 3,666 3,679 3,666 -13 0 286
Jan-19 3,750 3,755 3,693 3,718 3,748 3,717 -31 164,810 247,644
Mar-19 3,662 3,685 3,646 3,677 3,719 3,661 -58 66 68
May-19 3,840 3,841 3,788 3,810 3,830 3,809 -21 19,846 30,588
Jul-19 – – – 3,797 3,797 3,797 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,856 3,858 3,828 3,837 3,859 3,839 -20 172 2,194
Nov-19 – – – 3,770 3,789 3,770 -19 0 12
Jan-20 3,894 3,894 3,866 3,866 3,890 3,884 -6 6 80
Corn
Turnover: 472,712 lots, or 8.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 1,834 1,836 1,825 1,827 1,836 1,829 -7 13,020 33,428
Jan-19 1,860 1,860 1,850 1,853 1,862 1,854 -8 298,218 738,838
Mar-19 1,894 1,897 1,888 1,891 1,901 1,891 -10 518 6,896
May-19 1,962 1,964 1,948 1,953 1,967 1,953 -14 136,390 400,378
Jul-19 1,997 1,998 1,983 1,989 2,002 1,989 -13 1,842 15,200
Sep-19 2,035 2,037 2,020 2,026 2,039 2,027 -12 22,724 78,832
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,445,244 lots, or 46.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 3,465 3,499 3,454 3,493 3,465 3,468 3 82,230 131,342
Dec-18 3,378 3,390 3,361 3,390 3,373 3,382 9 72 1,028
Jan-19 3,292 3,335 3,275 3,324 3,296 3,298 2 1,068,404 2,546,780
Mar-19 3,099 3,131 3,086 3,123 3,097 3,100 3 6,458 7,728
May-19 2,838 2,848 2,814 2,843 2,834 2,829 -5 253,900 1,105,652
Jul-19 2,786 2,786 2,764 2,785 2,778 2,771 -7 2,308 7,886
Aug-19 2,785 2,785 2,777 2,785 2,806 2,782 -24 94 152
Sep-19 2,766 2,769 2,753 2,767 2,764 2,760 -4 31,778 98,176
Palm Oil
Turnover: 300,594 lots, or 14.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-18 – – – 4,874 4,796 4,874 78 0 4
Nov-18 – – – 4,786 4,786 4,786 0 0 10
Dec-18 4,920 4,920 4,790 4,790 4,812 4,862 50 8 34
Jan-19 4,732 4,746 4,692 4,732 4,722 4,718 -4 270,664 588,056
Feb-19 – – – 4,776 4,776 4,776 0 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 4,792 4,792 4,792 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,904 4,904 4,904 0 0 18
May-19 4,878 4,894 4,840 4,880 4,872 4,868 -4 29,766 93,868
Jun-19 – – – 5,004 5,004 5,004 0 0 54
Jul-19 – – – 5,010 5,014 5,010 -4 0 26
Aug-19 5,038 5,038 5,038 5,038 5,050 5,038 -12 2 12
Sep-19 4,902 4,934 4,888 4,924 4,920 4,912 -8 154 880
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 310,980 lots, or 18.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 – – – 5,902 5,902 5,902 0 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,816 5,816 5,816 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,866 5,874 5,826 5,866 5,862 5,852 -10 252,746 855,668
Mar-19 5,900 5,900 5,900 5,900 5,946 5,900 -46 4 112
May-19 5,772 5,776 5,728 5,766 5,766 5,756 -10 56,430 324,572
Jul-19 – – – 5,812 5,822 5,812 -10 0 18
Aug-19 5,810 5,810 5,810 5,810 5,798 5,810 12 4 2
Sep-19 5,804 5,806 5,768 5,780 5,798 5,784 -14 1,796 6,454
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322