About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

TABLE-Russia exported 23.1 mln tonnes of wheat in Jan-July – Reuters News
07-Sep-2018 05:01:36 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
MOSCOW, Sept 7 (Reuters) – Russian exports of wheat increased to 23.1 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2018 from 12.8 million tonnes a year ago, official customs data showed.
Jan-July 2018 Jan-July 2017
Thousand tonnes $ mln Thousand tonnes $ mln
WHEAT 23,091.2 4,246.6 12,801.9 2,299.2
VEGOIL 1,321.1 1,010.8 n/a n/a
Jan-July 2018 Jan-July 2017
Thousand tonnes $ mln Thousand tonnes $ mln
PALM OIL 550.0 411.3 n/a n/a
RED MEAT 221.5 807.1 349.2 1,102.3
POULTRY 118.5 191.0 133.5 212.0
RAW SUGAR 3.3 2.6 8.8 5.7
WHITE SUGAR 161.9 67.0 165.7 84.6
COFFEE 114.1 347.4 103.4 348.0
TEA 99.6 305.3 96.3 292.9
COCOA BEANS 28.4 75.6 25.9 68.1
CONTAINING PRODUCTS 67.5 245.4 42.4 189.2
BANANA 957.9 715.3 n/a n/a
CITRUS FRUIT 847.7 627.4 n/a n/a
• Coffee figures do not include soluble coffee.
(Moscow Newsroom Moscow.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com; +7 495 775 1242)

General Comments: Cotton was lower once again as the tropical storm Gordon faded and moved into the southern Midwest. It brought heavy rains to the Delta, but the rains are not around long enough to really damage the fiber. Another tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic and is now a major hurricane, but should stay away from US Cotton areas. It is likely to move into Bermuda and perhaps the mid Atlantic US coast instead. Two more waves are forming off of the coast of Africa. US weather remains good in the Delta and Southeast, and has improved slightly in West Texas into Kansas with some precipitation. The harvest remains active in far southern parts of Texas. Crop scout reports indicate that the yield potential should be generally poor. World conditions bear watching as there are questions developing about the Indian monsoon. The rains have been below normal, but generally good enough to support crops. The industry there expects strong production year, and China has been there buying to cover its short production year. Conditions have also improved in Pakistan as rains have been reported.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see scattered showers, mostly in the Delta. Drier next week in the Delta, but showers in the Southeast. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 78.00 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 19,935 bales, from 19,837 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 92,200 bales this year and 0 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 10,500 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8120, 8000, and 7960 December, with resistance of 8210, 8320, and 8420 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Sep 6
As of Aug 31. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 18 38,974 38,908 66 21,231 21,825 -594
Mar 19 40,543 39,894 649 2,420 2,420 0
May 19 19,437 19,085 352 342 342 0
Jul 19 27,035 26,113 922 1,787 1,748 39
Dec 19 14,755 14,725 30 16,484 16,319 165
Mar 20 4,718 4,718 0 209 209 0
May 20 1,689 1,689 0 0 0 0
Jul 20 1,167 1,167 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 1,158 1,158 0 1,784 1,087 697
Total 149,476 147,457 2,019 44,257 43,950 307
Open Change
Oct 18 179 183 -4
Dec 18 144,600 145,755 -1,155
Mar 19 66,535 64,232 2,303
May 19 10,076 10,123 -47
Jul 19 7,558 7,466 92
Oct 19 2 0
Dec 19 22,960 22,515 445
Mar 20 725 688 37
May 20 37 29 8
Jun 20 0 0 0
Jul 20 8 8 0
Dec 20 737 651 86
Total 253,417 251,652 1,765

General Comments: FCOJ was slightly lower as a tropical storm brushed some Orange production areas this week, but mostly brought beneficial rains. Overall growing conditions in Florida are good to very good, and there is limited storm development in the Atlantic at this time. One System has developed into a major hurricane, but the projected track of the storm keeps it well to the north of Florida. A couple more waves are moving off the coast of Africa and could develop into hurricanes, but initial track forecasts keep the storms away from Florida. . The state is getting frequent periods of showers. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used when needed, and producers expect a good crop. A good crop now will likely mean increasing inventories of frozen concentrate. Weaker demand has caused FCOJ inventories in Florida to increase on a year to year basis.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day, with best amounts and coverage coming today and tomorrow. Drier starting on Sunday.. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for delivery against September Contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 152.00 and 148.00 November. Support is at 152.00, 151.00, and 147.00 November, with resistance at 155.00, 156.00, and 159.00 November.

General Comments: Futures were lower in both New York and London as the funds returned to the sell side due in part to a weaker Brazilian Real. Futures in New York are trading in a range for the short-term, but London is still in a down trend. The market wants new selling from the producers in Vietnam and Brazil, but it is not getting much. Producers in both countries are not selling, although futures and cash prices keep slipping away. Estimates for Brazil production this year range as high as 60 million bags. Most of Central America is reporting good rains, but some areas were dry at flowering time and some flowers got aborted. Production in Vietnam is estimated at above 30 million bags and a new record. Growing conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.241 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 98.82 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to mostly above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers. ICE New York deliveries were 0 contracts for today and now total 1,053 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 100.00, 99.00, and 96.00 December, and resistance is at 105.00, 107.00 and 108.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1470 November. Support is at 1470, 1450, and 1420 November, and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1560 November.

Vietnam 2018-19 Coffee Output May Fall 3.4% to 28.5m Bags: Group
By Mai Ngoc Chau
(Bloomberg) —
Coffee production in Vietnam, the world’s biggest robusta grower, may drop from est. 29.5m bags of 60 kilograms each in 2017-18, says Luong Van Tu, chairman of Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association.
Lower output forecast partially due to shrinking coffee area following weaker prices, Tu says in email to Bloomberg
Some growers have switched to more remunerative trees such as avocados, durians that are estimated to provide 3-4 times returns of coffee
About 20% of premature coffee fruits in Gia Lai province dropped this year due to prolonged rain; more than 10% fall recorded in other Central Highlands provinces
Cycle of low-output season after bumper production seen repeated in 2018-19, Tu says
Coffee exports may total 400,000 tons in Sept.-Dec.
NOTE: Jan.-Aug. coffee shipments seen at 1.32m tons, up 15.5% y/y, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
Domestic prices at 3-year low, below production costs
Rising labor costs, fertilizer and fuel prices causing difficulties for coffee planters
NOTE: Vietnam Coffee Growers Expecting Record Crop in Coming Season

DJ Not Much Brewing for India’s Coffee Exports — Market Talk
0623 GMT – India’s coffee exports remained even with year-earlier levels last month, with some shipments being delayed due to flooding in key producing areas. Through August, exports for 2018 were 262,764 tons, with nearly 20,000 more being held up amid crop damage and roads connecting ports to the hilly coffee-growing region being washed away, said Ramesh Rajah, head of the Coffee Exporters Association of India. “The drop will widen in the coming months,” he added while predicting that India’s coffee production for the year starting Oct. 1 might be about 25% lower than the 316,000 metric tons estimated by the state-run Coffee Board. India, the world’s 6th-biggest coffee producer, exports 3/4 of its output.

General Comments: New York and London were lower as funds and other speculators sol don improved conditions in India and a weaker Brazilian Real. London was the weaker market, but has rallied more than New York in recent days. Both markets are still showing that prices have made short-term lows and that a further short covering rally is possible. The moves come as October deliveries are not that far away, and some of the spec buying could be tied to covering of big October short positions. There are uneven weather conditions in important growing areas. Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India. Dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1220 and 1290 March. Support is at 1130, 1110, and 1080 March, and resistance is at 1190, 1210, and 1230 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 358.00 and 389.00 December. Support is at 328.00, 320.00, and 315.00 December, and resistance is at 335.00, 339.00, and 342.00 December.

General Comments Futures closed lower in both markets. Both markets act a little overbought as bullish traders have not been able to extend gains all week. Prices are still in a very short-term trading range. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa, but will not rally get going for at least another month. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are high. Ghana and Nigeria are expecting very good crops this year as well. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa, with heavy amounts of precipitation possible. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.424 million bags. ICE said that 132 notices were posted for September delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 283 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2250, 2220, and 2190 December, with resistance at 2340, 2370, and 2400 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1590 December, with resistance at 1700, 1740, and 1760 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322