Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower as tropical storm Gordon faded as a market force after moving into Mississippi yesterday. It is bringing heavy rains, but the rains are nota round long enough to really damage the fiber. Another tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic and is now a major hurricane, but should stay away from US Cotton areas. It is likely to move into Bermuda and perhaps the mid Atlantic US coast instead. US weather remains good in the Delta and Southeast, and has improved slightly in West Texas into Kansas with some precipitation. The harvest remains active in far southern parts of Texas. Crop scout reports indicate that the yield potential should be generally poor. World conditions bear watching as there are questions developing about the Indian monsoon. The rains have been below normal, but generally good enough to support crops. The industry there expects strong production year, and China has been there buying to cover its short production year. Conditions have also improved in Pakistan as rains have been reported.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see scattered showers, mostly in the Delta. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have scattered showers arrive today and tomorrow. Dry again this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 78.00 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 18,837 bales, from 20,066 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8140, 8120, and 8000 December, with resistance of 8320, 8420, and 8610 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower as a tropical storm brushed some Orange production areas yesterday, but mostly brought beneficial rains. Overall growing conditions in Florida are good to very good, and there is limited storm development in the Atlantic at this time. One System has developed into a major hurricane, but the projected track of the storm keeps it well away from Florida. It appears aimed for Bermuda nd maybe the Mid Atlantic coast instead. The state is getting frequent periods of showers. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used when needed, and producers expect a good crop. A good crop now will likely mean increasing inventories of frozen concentrate. Weaker demand has caused FCOJ inventories in Florida to increase on a year to year basis.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day, with best amounts and coverage coming this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for delivery against September Contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 152.00 and 148.00 November. Support is at 152.00, 151.00, and 147.00 November, with resistance at 156.00, 159.00, and 163.00 November.
General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London. It was a positive close in New York, and the charts act more and more like a bottom is forming. Funds and other speculators were the best buyers and could be covering some big short positions. Futures in New York are trading in a range for the short-term, but London is still in a down trend. The market wants new selling from the producers in Vietnam and Brazil, but it is not getting much. Producers in both countries are not selling, although futures and cash prices keep slipping away. Estimates for Brazil production this year range as high as 60 million bags. Most of Central America is reporting good rains, but some areas were dry at flowering time and some flowers got aborted. Production in Vietnam is estimated at above 30 million bags and a new record. Growing conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.236 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 99.69 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to mostly above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers. ICE New York deliveries were 0 contracts for today and now total 1,053 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 100.00, 99.00, and 96.00 November, and resistance is at 105.00, 107.00 and 108.00 November. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1550 and 1470 November. Support is at 1450, 1420, and 1390 November, and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1560 November.
DJ Not Much Brewing for India’s Coffee Exports — Market Talk
0623 GMT – India’s coffee exports remained even with year-earlier levels last month, with some shipments being delayed due to flooding in key producing areas. Through August, exports for 2018 were 262,764 tons, with nearly 20,000 more being held up amid crop damage and roads connecting ports to the hilly coffee-growing region being washed away, said Ramesh Rajah, head of the Coffee Exporters Association of India. “The drop will widen in the coming months,” he added while predicting that India’s coffee production for the year starting Oct. 1 might be about 25% lower than the 316,000 metric tons estimated by the state-run Coffee Board. India, the world’s 6th-biggest coffee producer, exports 3/4 of its output.
General Comments: New York and London were higher and London made new highs for the move. Both markets are showing that prices have made short-term lows and that a further short covering rally is possible. The moves come as October deliveries are not that far away, and some of the spec buying could be tied to covering of big October short positions. The bad news is already well-known, and the price action implies that the bad news is already built into the market. Just about everyone is looking for a significant production well above any demand potential, but there are uneven weather conditions in important growing areas. Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India. Brazil producers are worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest, and processing rates have been down for the last month. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1220 and 1290 March. Support is at 1130, 1110, and 1080 March, and resistance is at 1190, 1210, and 1230 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 358.00 and 389.00 December. Support is at 330.00, 328.00, and 320.00 December, and resistance is at 335.00, 339.00, and 342.00 December.
General Comments Futures closed a little lower in both markets in range trading. Prices are still in a very short term trading range. Prices have firmed in West Africa this past week as the demand is holding. However, short term chart trends are down in both futures markets after the price action yesterday. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa, but will not rally get going for at least another month. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are high. Ghana and Nigeria are expecting very good crops this year as well. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa, with heavy amounts of precipitation possible. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.460 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for September delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 151 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2250, 2220, and 2190 December, with resistance at 2370, 2400, and 2430 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1630, and 1610 December, with resistance at 1740, 1760, and 1780 December.