About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Allendale Yield Estimates:
CHICAGO, IL. (September 5, 2018) – Allendale, Inc. a Chicago area agricultural commodity brokerage and analysis firm suggests a projected US corn crop of 14.529 billion bushels and a soybean crop of 4.636 billion bushels.
The 29th annual Nationwide Producer Yield Survey was conducted from August 20-31. The surveys were conducted direct by our brokers (69%) as well as via our website and social media platforms (31%).
These estimates were based on producer calculated yields in 34 states. Ample surveys gave us the numbers needed to project yields in the top 12 states. This covers 86% of corn production and 83% of soybean production. For this survey, the smaller states were assumed using USDA’s August 10 estimates.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
2 YEAR TREASURY NOTE September Sep. 07, 2018 323 Aug 22, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 07, 2018 594 Sep 05, 2018
ROUGH RICE September Sep. 07, 2018 9 Aug 24, 2018
CORN September Sep. 07, 2018 178 Aug 30, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 07, 2018 9 Aug 31, 2018
SOYBEAN September Sep. 07, 2018 365 Sep 05, 2018
WHEAT September Sep. 07, 2018 307 Sep 04, 2018

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks As Of July 31, 2018 – StatsCan – Sep 6
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oilseed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of July 31, 2018, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31
2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017
Barley 1,023 1,789 233 333 1,256 2,122
Canola 1,437 424 954 918 2,391 1,342
Corn n/a 1,566 n/a 922 n/a 2,487
Flaxseed 53 166 75 74 128 240
Lentils 725 224 151 91 876 315
Oats 612 576 172 127 784 703
Dry peas 381 163 269 137 650 300
All rye 72 134 32 30 104 164
Soybeans n/a 30 n/a 325 n/a 355
All wheat 2,659 2,312 3,520 4,544 6,180 6,856
Durum wheat 760 930 713 898 1,473 1,828
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on reports that Russian exporters had sold another 60,000 tons to Egypt at low prices. Russia is still open for business and there are no signs that the push to move Wheat from the country is about to slow down.. There is still more Russian Wheat to move into the world market, and wire reports indicate that exporters will continue to sell as fast as possible. Russia had a short crop this year and there has been talk of export restrictions, but so far the Russian government has only held meetings with exporters in an effort to find out how short supplies could become. Crops in Europe also remain in bad shape from a drought this year. Parts of Australia have also seen drought, and world stocks levels are forecast to be as tight as they have been in years. The US Spring Wheat harvest is moving rapidly and could move to completion in the next week or so. The trade is keeping an eye on Spring Wheat in parts of the Canadian Prairies that have been hot and dry recently. Ideas are that Spring Wheat production will be less than original expectations in Canada due to some hot and dry conditions in growing areas earlier in the Summer.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains has the chance for scattered showers each day for the coming week. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some showers should develop this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 500 and 494 December. Support is at 519, 507, and 506 December, with resistance at 535, 548, and 552 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 502 December. Support is at 527, 526, and 521 December, with resistance at 542, 558, and 561 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 571 and 540 December. Support is at 578, 576, and 572 December, and resistance is at 586, 596, and 600 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower in September and slightly lower in November on liquidation as September starts to wind down as a trade and delivery month. The rest of the months were a little higher in range trading. Excellent yields are still being reported in southern areas. However, there are some questions as to how big the yields will be farther to the north do to grass in the fields that could reduce the space for Rice to develop. Demand is still reported to be strong on the domestic and on the export fronts. Ideas are that the cash market is still very tight as new crop supplies are just becoming available in far southern areas and old crop supplies are mostly sold out everywhere. Cash prices are stable in the interior and have held well. There is talk that cash values can start to erode once commercial space is filed. Ideas are that the northern Delta will harvest in earnest starting in early September.
Overnight News: The Delta should see scattered showers every day. Temperatures should be near to above normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1069, 1062, and 1050 November, with resistance at 1096, 1098, and 1100 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower. The market held as the weather has been less than perfect for finishing the crop. It has been very hot in much of the Midwest and some areas have seen flooding rains. Cooler weather is expected through the weekend, but warmer than normal weather could return the next week. Most expect yields to improve as that has been the trend in recent years. There has been plenty of rain in much of the Midwest lately, and temperatures are mostly hot. The heat seen recently is pushing the crop to maturity and might help to keep the crop from finishing as well as it might give the precipitation. It is cooler now, but warmer weather is expected again next week and maturity is being pushed ahead of normal. The push to maturity could affect yield potential as the longer a crop has to develop the larger the grain can become.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 368 and 377 December. Support is at 364, 361, and 359 December, and resistance is at 372, 376, and 378 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 244 and 230 December. Support is at 245, 241, and 239 December, and resistance is at 251, 256, and 258 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower. The market is expecting a huge harvest after good August rains in many growing areas and as crop condition ratings have held strong. Many traders think that the national yield potential is even higher than recent estimates given the good finishing weather. However, the crop is starting to turn color in many areas, so additional yield growth might not be coming. It was very hot over the weekend in the Midwest. Some areas got flooding rains, while others stayed dry. There is no doubt that the Soybeans crop in general is in better condition than the Corn crop, and the yield potential seems to be there as tourists reported very high pod counts on the plants for the better part of the tour. Chart trends are sideways for the short-term.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 826, 820, and 814 November, and resistance is at 851, 866, and 884 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 300.00, and 297.00 October, and resistance is at 311.00, 315.00, and 320.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2810, 2790, and 2770 October, with resistance at 2870, 2890, and 2910 October.

Alerts History
• 05-Sep-2018 12:37:24 PM – BRAZIL 2018 SOYBEAN OUTPUT SEEN AT 118.8 MLN T VS 118.7 MLN T IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -INDUSTRY GROUP ABIOVE
• 05-Sep-2018 12:37:47 PM – BRAZIL 2018 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 76.1 MLN T VS 73.5 MLN T IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE
• 05-Sep-2018 12:38:42 PM – BRAZIL 2018 SOYBEAN CRUSHING SEEN AT 43.6 MLN T, STEADY WITH 43.6 MLN T IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE
• 05-Sep-2018 12:49:29 PM – BRAZIL 2018 SOYBEAN STOCKS SEEN AT 1.465 MLN T VS 3.865 MLN T IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE
Brazil 2018 soybean exports soar to record, stocks dwindle -trade group – Reuters News
05-Sep-2018 01:12:16 PM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
BRASILIA, Sept 5 (Reuters) –
• Brazil industry group Abiove revises up country’s 2018 soybean export forecast to record 76.1 million tonnes, up 3.5 pct from 73.5 million tonnes in previous prediction
• Abiove cuts 2018 outlook for Brazil soybean stocks to 1.465 million tonnes from 3.865 million tonnes in previous forecast as exports soar
• Brazil 2018 soybean output seen edging up to 118.8 million tonnes versus 118.7 million tonnes previously
• Brazil 2018 soybean crushing seen at 43.6 million tonnes, steady against previous forecast

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed in quiet trading. The Canola harvest is moving ever closer to reality, but there was a freeze in the northern Prairies. No damage reports have been heard yet. Some early harvesting has been reported in some areas, but we have not heard any yield reports yet. Ideas are that Canola is too high-priced compared to Soybeans. The stronger Canadian Dollar kept demand ideas weaker, but overall demand appears to be solid right now. Palm Oil was a little lower as the trade started to look ahead to the monthly MPOB reports. Monthly ending stocks levels are expected to increase as rising production is expected to outpace rising demand. Futures remain in a short-term trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 490.00, 487.00, and 485.00 November, with resistance at 499.00, 501.00, and 505.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2430 November. Support is at 2270, 2240, and 2210 November, with resistance at 2310, 2340, and 2360 November.

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Aug
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Wednesday, 12 Sep
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.65 mil tonnes, Up 9.9%
Exports – 1.23 mil tonnes, Up 2.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.41 mil tonnes, Up 9.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.50 mil tonnes, Up 12.8%
Exports – 1.21 mil tonnes, Up 6.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.21 mil tonnes, Up 1.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible again today and then late this week and this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal this week and near to below normal by this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 42 December 115 December 10 November 13 October
October 48 December 13 November
November 53 December 60 December 25 November
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
September
October 235 November 8 October 85 December
November 10 December 98 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 5
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 466.80 up 1.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 506.60 dn 0.20
2 Can 493.60 dn 0.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 521.60 dn 0.20
2 Can 508.60 dn 0.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 570.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 575.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 582.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 600.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Sep 572.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 577.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 585.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 602.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 550.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 485.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,250 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 229 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1435)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 127,188 lots, or 4.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,495 3,495 3,495 3,495 3,520 3,495 -25 80 7,876
Nov-18 3,430 3,556 3,430 3,538 3,559 3,507 -52 12 148
Jan-19 3,579 3,620 3,568 3,619 3,601 3,598 -3 119,052 281,878
Mar-19 3,609 3,631 3,609 3,631 3,629 3,623 -6 6 58
May-19 3,652 3,693 3,644 3,693 3,672 3,673 1 8,002 23,412
Jul-19 – – – 3,701 3,701 3,701 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,735 3,758 3,720 3,756 3,747 3,738 -9 34 700
Nov-19 – – – 3,756 3,765 3,756 -9 0 12
Jan-20 3,799 3,799 3,799 3,799 3,783 3,799 16 2 40
Corn
Turnover: 786,110 lots, or 15.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,852 1,852 1,830 1,850 1,849 1,851 2 144 13,806
Nov-18 1,885 1,895 1,877 1,884 1,883 1,886 3 29,226 40,684
Jan-19 1,918 1,931 1,907 1,914 1,916 1,920 4 603,330 1,178,258
Mar-19 1,954 1,964 1,946 1,949 1,952 1,958 6 2,806 4,832
May-19 1,998 2,009 1,990 1,996 1,999 2,001 2 145,720 420,270
Jul-19 2,043 2,049 2,030 2,034 2,039 2,038 -1 4,884 19,892
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,284,516 lots, or 39.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,265 3,365 3,265 3,274 3,290 3,302 12 598 11,146
Nov-18 3,284 3,299 3,259 3,292 3,301 3,279 -22 128,468 208,664
Dec-18 3,165 3,189 3,165 3,185 3,190 3,182 -8 160 738
Jan-19 3,110 3,123 3,091 3,120 3,126 3,107 -19 1,005,120 2,161,102
Mar-19 2,977 2,978 2,961 2,973 2,987 2,969 -18 1,224 6,310
May-19 2,780 2,783 2,764 2,778 2,786 2,774 -12 147,878 929,474
Jul-19 2,758 2,761 2,748 2,759 2,764 2,754 -10 1,036 9,130
Aug-19 2,790 2,812 2,790 2,812 2,803 2,803 0 32 206
Palm Oil
Turnover: 275,986 lots, or 13.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 4,780 4,786 4,716 4,750 4,786 4,738 -48 1,068 6,624
Oct-18 – – – 4,852 4,852 4,852 0 0 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,888 4,936 4,888 -48 0 10
Dec-18 4,996 5,088 4,994 5,034 5,056 5,032 -24 42 34
Jan-19 4,938 4,950 4,922 4,946 4,948 4,936 -12 250,174 466,946
Feb-19 – – – 5,008 5,020 5,008 -12 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,008 5,008 5,008 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 5,144 5,156 5,144 -12 0 18
May-19 5,096 5,102 5,076 5,096 5,104 5,090 -14 24,702 71,858
Jun-19 – – – 5,126 5,126 5,126 0 0 58
Jul-19 – – – 5,138 5,138 5,138 0 0 36
Aug-19 – – – 5,146 5,160 5,146 -14 0 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 261,090 lots, or 15.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 5,800 5,800 5,724 5,756 5,796 5,736 -60 160 7,116
Nov-18 – – – 5,840 5,840 5,840 0 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,890 5,890 5,890 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,852 5,882 5,850 5,874 5,872 5,864 -8 229,326 879,356
Mar-19 5,930 5,956 5,928 5,928 5,852 5,934 82 10 116
May-19 5,820 5,856 5,820 5,844 5,848 5,838 -10 31,590 265,638
Jul-19 5,934 5,934 5,894 5,894 5,902 5,914 12 4 38
Aug-19 – – – 5,848 5,848 5,848 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322